The Spread of Goals (& a League One Goalscoring History)

[May Contain Nuts]

I've got far, far too much time on my hands today.

I just wondered what people thought was a realistic goal tally for our squad (or potential squad) this season and how they see those goals being spread out? We scored 67 (league goals) last season.

I came up with a list myself, but as usual when I do these things it has probably come out wildly optimistic.

Say as rumoured we do add Rhodes or Godden:
17 - Collins
11 - Rhodes/Godden
9 - Washington
6 - NML
5 - Hourihane, Ward, Sibley
4 - Barkhuizen
3 - Bird
2 - Brown, Bradley, Nelson
1 - Wilson, Cashin, Thompson

= 74 goals. See? Optimistic! (possibly laughably so, depending on your viewpoint)

Obviously it's not strict numbers-per-player, some may exceed the number some may do the opposite. I'm also not including any contribution from any extra no. 10 we're meant to be after or any further loan signings. Those additions may take goals away from elsewhere anyway.

...and then I got a bit carried away and thought I'd look at League One over the past 8 seasons to see how many goals teams have historically scored and conceded, and where this placed them in the final standings using that 74 goals as a sort of benchmark. It felt like the sort of number a play-off team with aspirations of automatics should be looking toward.

And so....

Over the past 8 seasons in League One, teams scoring fewer than 74 (or the equivalent of that in the covid season) have finished:
1st in 1 of 8 seasons (goals total: 65eq)
2nd in 3 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 57, 68, 70)
3rd in 5 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 60, 60, 61eq, 71, 73)
4th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 64, 70, 73, 73)
5th in 6 of 8 season (goals totals: 53eq, 55, 62, 62, 65, 69)
6th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 51eq, 58, 66, 70)

Rotherham only conceded 33 goals on the way to their last promotion, Wigan only conceded 29!
I can see us having a similar defensive record to Rotherham's given the signings we've made, but let's just say we concede ≤40

Teams who've conceded 40 or fewer have finished:
1st in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 80, 89)
2nd in 6 of 8 seasons (scoring 57, 68, 70, 80, 82, 101)
3rd in 4 of 8 seasons (scoring 60, 60, 73, 81)
5th in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 53eq, 55, 62)
6th in 1 of 8 seasons (scoring 51eq)
...a lot of those goals in the higher echelons will be cherries on the cake and superfluous to actually gaining points.

Teams who've conceded 37 goals - 1x 2nd place finish, 2x 3rd place finishes
Teams who've conceded 36 goals - 1x 2nd place, 2x 5th place finishes
Teams who've conceded 35 or fewer - always automatically promoted

Teams who've finished 3rd have won the play-offs in 4 of the past 8 seasons:
2018/19 - Charlton who scored 73 and conceded 40
2019/20 - Wycombe who scored 61 equiv. and conceded 54 equiv.
2020/21 - Blackpool who scored 60 and conceded 37
2022/23 - Sheff Weds who scored 81 and conceded 37

Those who finished 3rd and failed to get promoted:
2015/16 - Walsall who scored 71 and conceded 49
2016/17 - Scunthorpe who scored 80 and conceded 54
2017/18 - Shrewsbury who scores 60 and conceded 39
2021/22 - MK Dons who scored 74 and conceded 44

...aaaand breathe.

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[IslandExile]

Wow. How'd you get the time?

Ok, here my contribution to this exercise:

Waghorn - 30 all in the league, 5 penalties.

[Foreveram]

1 hour ago, Kokosnuss said:

I've got far, far too much time on my hands today.

I just wondered what people thought was a realistic goal tally for our squad (or potential squad) this season and how they see those goals being spread out? We scored 67 (league goals) last season.

I came up with a list myself, but as usual when I do these things it has probably come out wildly optimistic.

Say as rumoured we do add Rhodes or Godden:
17 - Collins
11 - Rhodes/Godden
9 - Washington
6 - NML
5 - Hourihane, Ward, Sibley
4 - Barkhuizen
3 - Bird
2 - Brown, Bradley, Nelson
1 - Wilson, Cashin, Thompson

= 74 goals. See? Optimistic! (possibly laughably so, depending on your viewpoint)

Obviously it's not strict numbers-per-player, some may exceed the number some may do the opposite. I'm also not including any contribution from any extra no. 10 we're meant to be after or any further loan signings. Those additions may take goals away from elsewhere anyway.

...and then I got a bit carried away and thought I'd look at League One over the past 8 seasons to see how many goals teams have historically scored and conceded, and where this placed them in the final standings using that 74 goals as a sort of benchmark. It felt like the sort of number a play-off team with aspirations of automatics should be looking toward.

And so....

Over the past 8 seasons in League One, teams scoring fewer than 74 (or the equivalent of that in the covid season) have finished:
1st in 1 of 8 seasons (goals total: 65eq)
2nd in 3 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 57, 68, 70)
3rd in 5 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 60, 60, 61eq, 71, 73)
4th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 64, 70, 73, 73)
5th in 6 of 8 season (goals totals: 53eq, 55, 62, 62, 65, 69)
6th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 51eq, 58, 66, 70)

Rotherham only conceded 33 goals on the way to their last promotion, Wigan only conceded 29!
I can see us having a similar defensive record to Rotherham's given the signings we've made, but let's just say we concede ≤40

Teams who've conceded 40 or fewer have finished:
1st in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 80, 89)
2nd in 6 of 8 seasons (scoring 57, 68, 70, 80, 82, 101)
3rd in 4 of 8 seasons (scoring 60, 60, 73, 81)
5th in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 53eq, 55, 62)
6th in 1 of 8 seasons (scoring 51eq)
...a lot of those goals in the higher echelons will be cherries on the cake and superfluous to actually gaining points.

Teams who've conceded 37 goals - 1x 2nd place finish, 2x 3rd place finishes
Teams who've conceded 36 goals - 1x 2nd place, 2x 5th place finishes
Teams who've conceded 35 or fewer - always automatically promoted

Teams who've finished 3rd have won the play-offs in 4 of the past 8 seasons:
2018/19 - Charlton who scored 73 and conceded 40
2019/20 - Wycombe who scored 61 equiv. and conceded 54 equiv.
2020/21 - Blackpool who scored 60 and conceded 37
2022/23 - Sheff Weds who scored 81 and conceded 37

Those who finished 3rd and failed to get promoted:
2015/16 - Walsall who scored 71 and conceded 49
2016/17 - Scunthorpe who scored 80 and conceded 54
2017/18 - Shrewsbury who scores 60 and conceded 39
2021/22 - MK Dons who scored 74 and conceded 44

...aaaand breathe.

 

I think you’re exactly right.

 

You have got far too much time on your hands.

 

 

[Tyler Durden]

1 hour ago, IslandExile said:

Wow. How'd you get the time?

Ok, here my contribution to this exercise:

Waghorn - 30 all in the league, 5 penalties.

I'd have gone for 29......

[Ram1988]

On 25/07/2023 at 14:12, Kokosnuss said:

I've got far, far too much time on my hands today.

I just wondered what people thought was a realistic goal tally for our squad (or potential squad) this season and how they see those goals being spread out? We scored 67 (league goals) last season.

I came up with a list myself, but as usual when I do these things it has probably come out wildly optimistic.

Say as rumoured we do add Rhodes or Godden:
17 - Collins
11 - Rhodes/Godden
9 - Washington
6 - NML
5 - Hourihane, Ward, Sibley
4 - Barkhuizen
3 - Bird
2 - Brown, Bradley, Nelson
1 - Wilson, Cashin, Thompson

= 74 goals. See? Optimistic! (possibly laughably so, depending on your viewpoint)

Obviously it's not strict numbers-per-player, some may exceed the number some may do the opposite. I'm also not including any contribution from any extra no. 10 we're meant to be after or any further loan signings. Those additions may take goals away from elsewhere anyway.

...and then I got a bit carried away and thought I'd look at League One over the past 8 seasons to see how many goals teams have historically scored and conceded, and where this placed them in the final standings using that 74 goals as a sort of benchmark. It felt like the sort of number a play-off team with aspirations of automatics should be looking toward.

And so....

Over the past 8 seasons in League One, teams scoring fewer than 74 (or the equivalent of that in the covid season) have finished:
1st in 1 of 8 seasons (goals total: 65eq)
2nd in 3 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 57, 68, 70)
3rd in 5 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 60, 60, 61eq, 71, 73)
4th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 64, 70, 73, 73)
5th in 6 of 8 season (goals totals: 53eq, 55, 62, 62, 65, 69)
6th in 4 of 8 seasons (goals totals: 51eq, 58, 66, 70)

Rotherham only conceded 33 goals on the way to their last promotion, Wigan only conceded 29!
I can see us having a similar defensive record to Rotherham's given the signings we've made, but let's just say we concede ≤40

Teams who've conceded 40 or fewer have finished:
1st in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 80, 89)
2nd in 6 of 8 seasons (scoring 57, 68, 70, 80, 82, 101)
3rd in 4 of 8 seasons (scoring 60, 60, 73, 81)
5th in 2 of 8 seasons (scoring 53eq, 55, 62)
6th in 1 of 8 seasons (scoring 51eq)
...a lot of those goals in the higher echelons will be cherries on the cake and superfluous to actually gaining points.

Teams who've conceded 37 goals - 1x 2nd place finish, 2x 3rd place finishes
Teams who've conceded 36 goals - 1x 2nd place, 2x 5th place finishes
Teams who've conceded 35 or fewer - always automatically promoted

Teams who've finished 3rd have won the play-offs in 4 of the past 8 seasons:
2018/19 - Charlton who scored 73 and conceded 40
2019/20 - Wycombe who scored 61 equiv. and conceded 54 equiv.
2020/21 - Blackpool who scored 60 and conceded 37
2022/23 - Sheff Weds who scored 81 and conceded 37

Those who finished 3rd and failed to get promoted:
2015/16 - Walsall who scored 71 and conceded 49
2016/17 - Scunthorpe who scored 80 and conceded 54
2017/18 - Shrewsbury who scores 60 and conceded 39
2021/22 - MK Dons who scored 74 and conceded 44

...aaaand breathe.

 

I hope that the likes of Bradley and Nelson could even get 3 or 4 each taking advantage of their physical presence from corners and pieces.

[Bris Vegas]

We need a spread of goals against all opposition, not 80% of our goals coming against the bottom half sides and only 20% coming against the top half sides. No extra points for putting five past cannon fodder. 

 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Bris Vegas

[MaltRam]

My brain hurts.

 

[Magicman]

My team ( with goals expected total 56 )

Wildsmith

Nelson ( 3 ) Bradley ( 4 ) Cashin ( 3)

Ward ( 3 ) Hourihane ( 5) Smith ( 1) Elder ( 1) & Sibley ( 4) 

NML ( 8 )  Bird ( 4) 

Collins ( 10 ) & Washington ( 10 ) 

Edited July 27, 2023 by Magicman

[Animal is a Ram]

My 90/50/10 take.

90 - Collins gets over 15 - he got double figures last season, and looks like he'll be getting better service this season. (12 last season)

50 - NML to get 12-15 (7 last season)

10 - I've got nothing to go off here, just a sneaky gut feeling - but I think Bird has a decent goalscoring season. 8-10. (1 last season)

Throw in Washington to get 10, the CBs to get more than the 1 from Cashin last season (let's say 6) and we replace McGoldrick's goals.

Edited July 27, 2023 by Animal is a Ram