2019-20 season assessment.

[Jram]

8 minutes ago, brady1993 said:

I accept the small sample isn't necessarily a barrier to making a conclusion but it does mean you can be disproportionately affected by noise especially in domain like football where there are a lot of uncontrolled variables. Whilst I don't think it's worth ignoring (I'll get onto this a little later) it's worth keeping in mind that it might be a random fluctuation especially if it's just this season that is the outlier for us on a disciplinary front. It's also worth keeping in mind that one of the red cards counted for us shouldn't have been a red card (Sibley's rescinded red card).

With all that said there is strong enough evidence to prompt further investigation to see what might be causing it and if there is anything that can be done to curb it. As an aside at a glance a couple things stood out about our numbers; our yellow cards are high but relatively in line for the rest of the league and that for the number of red cards we have it looks a bit odd that we've had no double yellows.

I agree with this

Its fine to make observations about things like this in order to conduct further investigation but you can’t draw any meaningful conclusions

[Ghost of Clough]

3 hours ago, Gritty said:

The problem with this analysis IMO is that it doesn't take into account we are already massively loss making and - were it not for stadium sale - would have obliterated FFP.  So the wage savings you highlight won't free up cash for new signings, they'll reduce our losses and hopefully bring us back into compliance with FFP.  But I don't expect we'll be paying anything other than nominal fees for players unless there are significant outgoings.  And players coming in will be on much lower wages

Evidence for obliterating P&S without the stadium sale?
From what I can see we would have exceeded max losses by about £9m in the 2018 period, probably £4m inside the limit for 2019 and a £5.5m overspend in 2020. I imagine without the stadium sale we would have done our best to sell Vydra a month earlier and sold others to meet the 2018 limit.

 

If the verdict from the hearing is for historical values for amortisation are to be restated, then we'll will most likely have more headroom for the next couple of seasons. If past figures are to remain as they are but we have to switch to an 'acceptable' method then this would result in reduced headroom from where we currently stand. In this instance, I would expect an agreement to be made where we have an increased limit on our losses whilst we transition.

[Ghost of Clough]

14 minutes ago, brady1993 said:

Out of pure curiosity where are you sourcing your data, as I haven't seen that level of data provided in many places ?

Most of the stats I use can be found on Whoscored. Some need a little bit of digging on other sites to find.

In this instance... Championship > Team Statistics > Detailed

Category changed to 'fouls', accumulation to 'total', and toggled the minutes to a specific period.

 

[brady1993]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Most of the stats I use can be found on Whoscored. Some need a little bit of digging on other sites to find.

In this instance... Championship > Team Statistics > Detailed

Category changed to 'fouls', accumulation to 'total', and toggled the minutes to a specific period.

 

Yeah I've used whoscored before but actually didn't realise it had break downs per section of game before which is interesting.

[Van der MoodHoover]

I think the season was quite rubbish at the beginning, got much much better in the middle, and was a bit rubbish again at the end.?

 

[Ellafella]

2 hours ago, Jram said:

It sounds like your job gives you a certain level of expertise and I have none so I’m inclined to believe you but i just can’t ?

If you can find me some evidence that in the last ten years Derby have had significantly more red and yellow cards than other teams, I’d be willing to draw some conclusions about culture at the club or whatever but, football being the random game that it is, I’m not willing to accept that 6 red cards over such a tiny sample of games points to anything significant 

It’s this season that’s the problem. The use of historical data would act as a baseline against which to compare. Frankly, I don’t give a fig whether you believe it or not. I’m quite happy for you to continue ignoring evidence based on your understanding of numbers but usually it pays to be properly informed before making an opinion and forming an argument. 

[Jram]

7 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

It’s this season that’s the problem. The use of historical data would act as a baseline against which to compare. Frankly, I don’t give a fig whether you believe it or not. I’m quite happy for you to continue ignoring evidence based on your understanding of numbers but usually it pays to be properly informed before making an opinion and forming an argument. 

Thanks pal, we’ll agree to disagree 

[Ellafella]

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

One metric to measure discipline is the number of cards received. Obviously, we're one of the worst.
However, another measurement is the number of fouls committed, putting us 9th overall. We committed just under 10% more than the best team in the league, yet nearly 30% less than the worst team. Maybe not actually that ill-disciplined?
In fact, taking the first half of games into isolation, we're only 9 fouls worse than 2nd placed Bristol. As games go on, we're more likely to foul - in the final 15 we're only 9 fouls better than 3rd worst Cardiff. This seems to coincide with us pushing late on for a goal, getting hit on the counter, then taking tactical yellows as a result.

We’re actually the worst. Your subsequent analysis does nothing to explain away that figure, even though you try with your narrative. The hard fact remains. I don’t need to convince you of anything and frankly I’m happy for you to believe what you choose to believe. The simple fact remains that having the most players sent off and suspended through red and yellow cards weakens your team and costs you points and league position. Regardless of how you try and sweep it away as being random. I suspect that PC and his team will address this because small margins make a lot of difference in a very competitive setting. 

[RoyMac5]

7 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

...and costs you points and league position.

Conjecture.

[Ellafella]

1 hour ago, brady1993 said:

I accept the small sample isn't necessarily a barrier to making a conclusion but it does mean you can be disproportionately affected by noise especially in domain like football where there are a lot of uncontrolled variables. Whilst I don't think it's worth ignoring (I'll get onto this a little later) it's worth keeping in mind that it might be a random fluctuation especially if it's just this season that is the outlier for us on a disciplinary front. It's also worth keeping in mind that one of the red cards counted for us shouldn't have been a red card (Sibley's rescinded red card).

With all that said there is strong enough evidence to prompt further investigation to see what might be causing it and if there is anything that can be done to curb it. As an aside at a glance a couple things stood out about our numbers; our yellow cards are high but relatively in line for the rest of the league and that for the number of red cards we have it looks a bit odd that we've had no double yellows.

The critical factor is determining what is noise and what isn’t. I suspect a proper analysis which I haven’t done would show we are high on yellows and on reds. It would suggest this is sufficiently acute to warrant some corrective action. We have had key players miss games - that will have impacted on outcomes of games. That’s all there is to say on the matter. I think ignoring the data due to “small numbers” and discounting it as irrelevant as others suggest above is the wrong thing to do. 

[Jram]

3 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

The critical factor is determining what is noise and what isn’t. I suspect a proper analysis which I haven’t done would show we are high on yellows and on reds. It would suggest this is sufficiently acute to warrant some corrective action. We have had key players miss games - that will have impacted on outcomes of games. That’s all there is to say on the matter. I think ignoring the data due to “small numbers” and discounting it as irrelevant as others suggest above is the wrong thing to do. 

Obviously reds and yellows affect games and nobody is denying we have the highest number of reds this season

What people are saying is that the fact we have the highest number of reds this season is not indicative of some discipline problem (or other tempting narrative) but that, given the random nature of football and small sample size, it’s probably a lot to do with random chance 

I don’t know how I’ve been drawn back into this ?

[Ellafella]

1 hour ago, Jram said:

I agree with this

Its fine to make observations about things like this in order to conduct further investigation but you can’t draw any meaningful conclusions

Respectfully, you are now contradicting yourself. The whole point is that the Club need to address this. So you’re saying look into it further but don’t conclude anything. The facts are:

1. We finished with the worst disciplinary record in the entire championship. 
2. This cost the Club money in fines and outcomes re: team strength.

3. Ensure this doesn’t repeat next year otherwise we continue to contribute to our own downfall. 

It’s simple really. Fine margins and all that. 

[Ellafella]

5 minutes ago, Jram said:

Obviously reds and yellows affect games and nobody is denying we have the highest number of reds this season

What people are saying is that the fact we have the highest number of reds this season is not indicative of some discipline problem (or other tempting narrative) but that, given the random nature of football and small sample size, it’s probably a lot to do with random chance 

I don’t know how I’ve been drawn back into this ?

So, you contradict yourself again... I’ll leave you to sort out the circularity in your argument. 

[Ghost of Clough]

25 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

We’re actually the worst. Your subsequent analysis does nothing to explain away that figure, even though you try with your narrative. The hard fact remains. I don’t need to convince you of anything and frankly I’m happy for you to believe what you choose to believe. The simple fact remains that having the most players sent off and suspended through red and yellow cards weakens your team and costs you points and league position. Regardless of how you try and sweep it away as being random. I suspect that PC and his team will address this because small margins make a lot of difference in a very competitive setting. 

Are we? Some would put Charlton’s 102 yellows down as being worse than our 84 yellows and 5 reds (Sibley’s doesn’t count). Wigan had 85 yellows and 6 reds as well. 

[Ellafella]

18 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Conjecture.

Losing players through suspension is, on the balance of probability, more likely to weaken your team and lose you points than strengthen it but vicariously the opposite may happen. Just less likely. Refutation. 

[Ghost of Clough]

8 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

The facts are:

1. We finished with the worst disciplinary record in the entire championship. 

That’s not a fact. That’s an opinion based on putting a weighting system on yellows, reds, and two yellows and a red. Wigan has more yellows and reds than us (based on the wrongful dismissal of Sibley), whereas several teams picked up more cards in total than us. 

[Jram]

13 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

Respectfully, you are now contradicting yourself. The whole point is that the Club need to address this. So you’re saying look into it further but don’t conclude anything. The facts are:

1. We finished with the worst disciplinary record in the entire championship. 
2. This cost the Club money in fines and outcomes re: team strength.

3. Ensure this doesn’t repeat next year otherwise we continue to contribute to our own downfall. 

It’s simple really. Fine margins and all that. 

No no I don’t think you understand 

I’m not saying the club should investigate because I don’t think they should, it’s madness to draw conclusions from this data 

all I was saying is, if you wanted to investigate further and gather more data , go for it and maybe draw conclusions from that if it’s meaningful 

I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t believe this will repeat next year because I doubt there is any narrative that we can learn from the data above re discipline this season

 

[RoyMac5]

52 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

Losing players through suspension is, on the balance of probability, more likely to weaken your team and lose you points than strengthen it but vicariously the opposite may happen. Just less likely. Refutation. 

Team game, players may rally together to get over one weakness. Refutation.

[Brammie Steve]

I honestly wouldn't think much of any team that relied on 'tactical yellow cards' to gain advantage in the latter part of a game.

Is anyone seriously suggesting that a manager would encourage foul play like this?

We seem to have entered a time warp to the days when Revie's team (who were they again?) saw dirty tactics as a badge of honour whilst Cloughie came down on anyone penalised like a ton of the proverbial!

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, Brummie Steve said:

I honestly wouldn't think much of any team that relied on 'tactical yellow cards' to gain advantage in the latter part of a game.

Is anyone seriously suggesting that a manager would encourage foul play like this?

We seem to have entered a time warp to the days when Revie's team (who were they again?) saw dirty tactics as a badge of honour whilst Cloughie came down on anyone penalised like a ton of the proverbial!

Shinnie's a classic example of it. It's nothing new - Eustace picked up 9 yellows from his 36 games in the QPR playoff season.