Coronavirus

[Mucker1884]

Hmmm...

"German towns BRING BACK lockdown measures after seeing rise in coronavirus infections within days of lifting them..."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8301469/German-towns-bring-lockdown-coronavirus-spike.html

[Sith Happens]

1 minute ago, G STAR RAM said:

The only time I have heard the figure of 20,000 used was when Sir Patrick Valllance said less than this figure would be a 'good outcome'. 

That was what was said, its very easy to take things out of context, and maybe saying any number was not a good thing to do because people don't hear the 'good outcome' they just hear the number.

Easy to say in hindsight though.

[Archied]

2 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

Hmmm...

"German towns BRING BACK lockdown measures after seeing rise in coronavirus infections within days of lifting them..."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8301469/German-towns-bring-lockdown-coronavirus-spike.html

Given the 14 days in the main to appear in the person and perhaps 4 weeks till deaths? It’s hard to see they get this from days unlocking

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Paul71 said:

That was what was said, its very easy to take things out of context, and maybe saying any number was not a good thing to do because people don't hear the 'good outcome' they just hear the number.

Easy to say in hindsight though.

When I heard that I honestly thought our numbers would not reach that level.

I thought it was the Government using a big target so we came out smelling of roses. 

I was very wrong!

[Angry Ram]

15 minutes ago, Archied said:

Don’t remember best poss bit ? But was stated if we stayed under 20k would be good ,, mind you a long way from proff not me figure of 500 k 

You might be right, I don’t watch the briefings anymore, or the news. However it certainly was not a max number.

[Archied]

2 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

That was what was said, its very easy to take things out of context, and maybe saying any number was not a good thing to do because people don't hear the 'good outcome' they just hear the number.

Easy to say in hindsight though.

Yep the whole numbers thing is daft at this point when there’s such little data to arrive at them from ,,, even boris with his 200k a day test target by next month ,,,,ffs concentrate on hitting the previous set target before doubling it or perhaps that s the point , lets forget the 100k target we aren’t hitting and move it along the road to a new target ,, pick a card , any card, shuffle it up , don’t let me see it?

[Sith Happens]

3 minutes ago, Archied said:

Yep the whole numbers thing is daft at this point when there’s such little data to arrive at them from ,,, even boris with his 200k a day test target by next month ,,,,ffs concentrate on hitting the previous set target before doubling it or perhaps that s the point , lets forget the 100k target we aren’t hitting and move it along the road to a new target ,, pick a card , any card, shuffle it up , don’t let me see it?

Numbers dont mean a lot sometimes, testing should be measured on who needs a test, are they getting it? Simple as that. If that means its 20k a day then so be it, if its 200k a day so be it too.

 

[Archied]

3 minutes ago, Angry Ram said:

You might be right, I don’t watch the briefings anymore, or the news. However it certainly was not a max number.

That’s exactly what I’m saying angry , it was not given as max just a number if we stayed under we would be doing well, there’s plenty I feel the gov are getting wrong but criticising should be fair and based on what is actually said and done , the 20 k figure is not something I feel falls in that catagory, thats just me though

[Comrade 86]

15 minutes ago, Archied said:

Given the 14 days in the main to appear in the person and perhaps 4 weeks till deaths? It’s hard to see they get this from days unlocking

I think it was more to do with them having assumed that the drop in infections and deaths would continue, only for counts to show it was a dip not an ongoing trend. I think the press have perhaps misconstrued the reasoning behind the latest lockdowns as like you, I can't see how such a short relaxation would have any impact for at least a fortnight. I think all countries will have to use a dip the toe approach and accept that multiple lockdowns may be required be tween now and the arrival of an effective vaccine.

28 minutes ago, Archied said:

Don’t remember best poss bit ? But was stated if we stayed under 20k would be good ,, mind you a long way from proff not me figure of 500 k 

Wasn't the 500k the worst case if no lockdown was implemented? Seems like a lifetime ago now ☹️

[Archied]

1 minute ago, Paul71 said:

Numbers dont mean a lot sometimes, testing should be measured on who needs a test, are they getting it? Simple as that. If that means its 20k a day then so be it, if its 200k a day so be it too.

 

Spot on Paul , the number made a rod for they’re own backs and made it harder to maximise the value

[Mucker1884]

9 minutes ago, Archied said:

Given the 14 days in the main to appear in the person and perhaps 4 weeks till deaths? It’s hard to see they get this from days unlocking

 

Maybe it's not so much "It's all gone titzup since we unlocked", but more "Hang on, maybe we've been a bit hasty, and we unlocked a tad too early"?

I don't think they are inferring that the unlocking has caused this latest spike?

[Archied]

1 minute ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

I think it was more to do with them having assumed that the drop in infections and deaths would continue, only for counts to show it was a dip not an ongoing trend. I think the press have perhaps misconstrued the reasoning behind the latest lockdowns as like you, I can't see how such a short relaxation would have any impact for at least a fortnight. I think all countries will have to use a dip the toe approach and accept that multiple lockdowns may be required be tween now and the arrival of an effective vaccine.

Wasn't the 500k the worst kill if no lockdown was implemented? Seems like a lifetime ago now ☹️

Yep certainly was , personally I believe that was massively out of kilter and perhaps Sweden bears that out?

[Guest]

So a 14 day quarantine for passengers flying into the UK will be implemented from the end of May?

Am I missing something here?

Surely if they identified this as a good idea, it should be implemented with immediate effect?

Basically, they have identified it as a source of spreading infection but said it's ok to carry on doing it for another 3 weeks?!?!

And this is after we were told previously that doing this was pointless because symptoms dont always show straight away.

I hope the question is asked at the next briefing over what has changed for this new advice and, why, if it has been identified as an area of concern, are the new measures not being implemented with immediate effect.

[Sith Happens]

29 minutes ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

 

Wasn't the 500k the worst case if no lockdown was implemented? Seems like a lifetime ago now ☹️

Seems like a lifetime ago the tone on this very thread was one of 'its an overreaction', 'its no worse than flu' and so on, that soon changed.

I think a lot of people saw the numbers in China and thought it could not be worse elsewhere.

I have no idea what a good outcome will be now.

[Sith Happens]

8 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

So a 14 day quarantine for passengers flying into the UK will be implemented from the end of May?

Am I missing something here?

Surely if they identified this as a good idea, it should be implemented with immediate effect?

Basically, they have identified it as a source of spreading infection but said it's ok to carry on doing it for another 3 weeks?!?!

And this is after we were told previously that doing this was pointless because symptoms dont always show straight away.

I hope the question is asked at the next briefing over what has changed for this new advice and, why, if it has been identified as an area of concern, are the new measures not being implemented with immediate effect.

I couldn't quite get my head around it. Right now it is just media talk again, but if true like you say we do need to be told why it hasnt happened before, and what the reasons are for it being the end of May.

 

[May Contain Nuts]

54 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

When I heard that I honestly thought our numbers would not reach that level.

I thought it was the Government using a big target so we came out smelling of roses. 

I was very wrong!

I think...

You were right to think that our figures shouldn't have ended up reaching those levels. Maybe keeping it down to Germany levels would be a bit too hopeful as you wouldn't really expect us to have their level of preparedness, but their figures are more in line with what we should have been capable of achieving, given we had a 2 week advantage over places like Italy and could see the devastating effect it had there. We had as good a chance (or better) as any European country (however slim) of ensuring it didn't end up a total disaster. We threw it away.

You were right to think that the goverment came out with that figure partly so they could beat it and proclaim what a wonderful job they'd done. It was also partly scaremongering to make sure people followed the advice that had been given out at that point. As it happened when we reached something like 26,000 deaths (not counting care homes) we still ended up with incredulous statement “there will be many people looking now at our apparent success”

You were only wrong to believe that they wouldn't reach those levels.

[Archied]

47 minutes ago, Mucker1884 said:

 

Maybe it's not so much "It's all gone titzup since we unlocked", but more "Hang on, maybe we've been a bit hasty, and we unlocked a tad too early"?

I don't think they are inferring that the unlocking has caused this latest spike?

Yep poss

[Tamworthram]

19 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

I couldn't quite get my head around it. Right now it is just media talk again, but if true like you say we do need to be told why it hasnt happened before, and what the reasons are for it being the end of May.

 

I’ve just posted something similar on the politics thread.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, Coconut said:

I'd say...

You were right to think that our figures shouldn't have ended up reaching those levels. Maybe keeping it down to Germany levels would be a bit too hopeful as you wouldn't really expect us to have their level of preparedness, but their figures are more in line with what we should have been capable of achieving, given we had a 2 week advantage over places like Italy and could see the devastating effect it had there. We had as good a chance (or better) as any European country (however slim) of ensuring it didn't end up a total disaster.

You were right to think that the goverment came out with that figure partly so they could beat it and proclaim what a wonderful job they'd done. It was also partly scaremongering to make sure people followed the advice that had been given out at that point. As it happened when we reached something like 26,000 deaths (not counting care homes) we still ended up with incredulous statement “there will be many people looking now at our apparent success”

You were only wrong to believe that they wouldn't reach those levels.

Is there actually any evidence that we had a 2 week advantage ove Italy and Spain.

From what I can see our first confirmed case was on 29th January and both Italy and Spains were on 31st January.

[RamNut]

The current testing regime will not deliver results quickly enough to ever be meaningful, and without widespread testing the app is pretty much worthless. And with new passengers arriving every day, we just haven’t got a grip on this at all. Anything else is spin, and bs.

As @Eddie pointed out, with testing even at 100k per day, it would take 2 years to test everyone just once.

The current test is too complex and too slow for mass screening, and the numbers are limited by laboratory capacity. 

as @B4ev6is said, we need something faster with almost instant results.

the surescreen-type tester might just do that, with results within 10 minutes, and no demand on specialist labs. 

it may not be as accurate as a lab test (who knows?), but if positive results lead to targeted isolation, and confirmation by lab test then we would soon get accurate data on the accuracy of the quick test, and get a much better understanding of the spread of the virus.

Half a million people in Derby and Derbyshire could be tested every week. Everyone would be tested within two weeks.

every passenger wishing to fly in or out of an airport could be tested in the time it takes to check in the baggage.

A positive result should be verified by a repeat test, and lead to compulsory self-isolation if there is another positive result.

everyone else could then enjoy greater freedoms with some degree of confidence.