Jump to content

An extra five goals a season


unclej

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 hours ago, Cam the Ram said:

Scored 7 goals from set pieces this season. Only 4 teams have scored more, Burnley, Cardiff, QPR (8) and Blackburn (9).

How many from corners tho. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Must admit i wonder why Derby bother employing clement....how about doing what ebbsfleet did that year and pick the team and tactics as voted by the fans...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, unclej said:

Our corners tend to be over-hit, especially from Ince. Dropping Russel between the goal and the corner flag will enable a quick return into the box for another bite at the cherry. 

Glad to help, no charge...

I like Turtles

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 16/12/2015 at 10:43, Cam the Ram said:

Scored 7 goals from set pieces this season. Only 4 teams have scored more, Burnley, Cardiff, QPR (8) and Blackburn (9).

Generally its a marked improvement for sure.

Firstly we have Butterfield who can take a decent corner, and Ince isnt bad from set pieces either.

Certainly a lot better than the trio of Russell, Bryson and Hughes who were all pretty awful at corners.

Secondly Shackell and Bradley Johnson are way more threatning than anyone we have had for years. (With the exception of the short loan spell of Keane now at Burnley who got on the end of a few) Keogh continues to be woeful at attacking corners, infact pretty much all his goals in the last 3 seasons have been putting in the rebound from a corner from someone elses attempt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/16/2015 at 09:40, unclej said:

Our corners tend to be over-hit, especially from Ince. Dropping Russel between the goal and the corner flag will enable a quick return into the box for another bite at the cherry. 

Glad to help, no charge...

I was talking about this at Tuesday's game. Alan Durban used to do it in the 70s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just stumbled across this. Found it quite interesting... 

http://www.7amkickoff.com/2013/of-course-corners-matter-why-the-numbers-game-got-it-wrong/

 

As we read in the first chapter of the Numbers Game, Jose Mourinho once famously said “How many countries can you think of where a corner kick is treated with the same applause as a goal? One. It only happens in England.” But here’s the thing, English fans applaud for good reason: because shots generated from corners score goals at a higher rate than shots from open play, because shots from corners are almost only ever taken when your team needs a goal, and because as the players get set up to deliver the tension builds and all of that adds up to a nice moment of excitement for the home fans.

The stats here are simple. Last season in the Premier League all 20 teams took 10559 shots and there were 1063 goals scored. That doesn’t exclude penalties (there were 68 goals scored on penalties), corners (126 goals), throw ins (7), or dead ball situations (62). Just simply dividing the number of shots taken by the number of goals scored gives us a conversion rate of almost exactly 10%. Just taking out penalties and corners and the conversion rate drops to 9% last season. Meanwhile, taking the total number of shots from corners (805) and the number of goals scored from those shots we see that corners are converted at a 15.65% rate.

Why do fans cheer when their team gets a corner in England? Because, anyone who has watched a football match knows that +6% conversion rate isn’t something to sneer at.

And yet that’s exactly what Chris Anderson and David Sally did in the opening chapter of their book – The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer is Wrong – when they made the statement “Corners are next to worthless; given the risk of being caught on the counterattack, with your central defenders marooned in the opposition’s box, their value in terms of net goal difference is close to zero.” It’s a bold statement, which is correct in terms of correlations between number of corners taken and net goal difference, but patently wrong in terms of the way the game is actually played.

Manchester United have been the very best football team in England, consistently, over the last 20 years and they make it a point to try to score off corners. Last season, United led the League in goals from corners with 15, one goal from a corner every 2.5 games. They led the League in turning corners into shots with 24% of their corners resulting in shots. And they were second in the league in converting their shots from corners into goals at 28% — Chelsea was first with 30% and second in total goals scored off corners with 11.

That means Chelsea and United were three times more likely to convert a shot from a corner into a goal than the average team was to convert a shot from open play. In fact, Chelsea converted just 10.85% of their non-corner shots into goals but 30% of their corner shots.

Put another way, it took about 10 shots per goal last season on average in the Premier League, but that number dropped to just 6.39 for shots per goal off corners. In fact, Chelsea needed just 3.27 shots per goal on corners and United 3.47.

17% of Manchester United’s total goals haul last season came from corners. That is hardly “next to worthless.”

Sally and Anderson are correct, if you look at the total number of corners taken there is little correlation between that number and goal difference. But that’s because not all corners are equal. A team down one goal in the 90th minute is going to try to get a shot on goal from any corners that they win, even Barcelona and Spain will try that. A team up a goal in the 90th minute is going to take a short corner and try to run the clock out. I would go even further and say that shots from corners are only ever taken when the attacking team needs a goal: either in the case of a tie game that you are trying to win or if the attacking team is behind.

This is why corners are important. This is why teams like United and Chelsea work hard to perfect corners. That is why English fans cheer loudly when their team gets a corner. Because corners matter.

Qq

P.S.

Special thanks to Ben Pugsley (twitter) who runs the excellent site Stats Bomb and Bitter and Blue and who saved me from having to pull all the data about shots from corners from every game last season. That would have been a nightmare.

Here’s Arsenal’s data. Arsenal are among the worst in terms of corners. Arsenal don’t get a lot of shots off corners, don’t score off corners, and generally aren’t real good at taking corners. That might change, though, now with Özil. Özil got 5 assists off corners for Real Madrid last season and generated a lot of his key passes from corners and other dead ball situations. That means no more Theo Walcott on corners, I suspect. Ha… maybe him and Cazorla can defend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...