The Finance Thread

[Zag zig]

7 hours ago, King Kevin said:

Good job Gordon got a great price for ours.

The Canadians are running him close presently, albeit not at giveaway prices.

[Zag zig]

3 hours ago, Phoenix said:

I'm not sure how true this is but apparently when he sold the business for £1, he's been drawing £11 million in rentals.

When I was at Sears, it was built up by Charlie Clore, particularly the British Shoe Corporation. He'd make an offer for a shoe chain, say Dolcis, then borrow the money against the property, or rather, sell the property (like 600 shoe shops) to a big insurance company then rent them back at hugely discounted rents for 25 years. All the butt end stuff the Insurance co didn't fancy was 'force-sold' to the Pension scheme. (Actually, we did rather well out of that as it happens).

Then another chain. Then another. There must have been about 7 or 8 chains in the company. All shoe shops. We had about 3000. Then there was the rag trade added to that.

25 years on, after Charlie had died, the Insurance Companies, not surprisingly, wanted the going rate. This gradually brought about the demise of a huge retail empire.

Enter big Phil, stage left.

Your not wrong, my wife worked at BSC and stayed on to the bitter end, as she was happy to get a fair old tax free payout in doing so.  

BSC though was a bloated animal from what I remember, some of the wasted spending was eye watering and the waste would make civil service departments a model of efficiency by comparison. So you can't just put Greens over zealous empire building as the root cause for its demise I.m.o

[Phoenix]

12 hours ago, Zag zig said:

Your not wrong, my wife worked at BSC and stayed on to the bitter end, as she was happy to get a fair old tax free payout in doing so.  

BSC though was a bloated animal from what I remember, some of the wasted spending was eye watering and the waste would make civil service departments a model of efficiency by comparison. So you can't just put Greens over zealous empire building as the root cause for its demise I.m.o

True. The office I worked in housed a sell-off, triggered by hatchet man John Osborne, of some of the extavagances of the senior management. When it was all gone (sold to the highest tender bid) we were left with this strange brass object, very like a large Singer sewing machine cover, in the corner of my boss's office. Out of curiosity we lifted the lid to reveal a cut-away scale model of our flagship shoe store on Oxford Street, made of brass. It was never quite finished, but we were told that it had already cost about £32,000. This would have been late 1990s.

I've no idea what became of it but you have to ask 'Why?'

No, I don't but the demise down to Green, he was the opportunist who picked up the pieces on the cheap. (I actually met him once, a day or two after his 'coup', grinning like a Cheshire cat who's been at the cream. Him, not me!) The rot set in when Charlie died and there was no-one of sufficient calibre to realise what a ticking time bomb it was becoming.

Incidentally, our small office was the only one that 'survived' and we were the only people who never got a pay-off from Sears. And before your wife asks, my name isn't Phoenix!

[Zag zig]

5 hours ago, Phoenix said:

True. The office I worked in housed a sell-off, triggered by hatchet man John Osborne, of some of the extavagances of the senior management. 

Incidentally, our small office was the only one that 'survived' and we were the only people who never got a pay-off from Sears. And before your wife asks, my name isn't Phoenix!

Very nice man according to my Mrs  

Ouch that was tough luck and LOL somehow I didn't think it was. 

With regard to the waste, yes it wasn't just the big scale corporate decisions I found unreal, just as a flavour still keep coming across Loakes shoes in our attic, Cartier bags you name it, I reckon at any time since she left, had she have held a car boot near Chelsea high street she would have made a small fortune. All legitimate free gift samples; as for expense cards I dare not mention the excesses that went on some company trips but there seemed few limits in place.

[SillyBilly]

So, I was wrong on the U.S, no follow-up interest rate hike and with the GDP 1st quarter @ 0.5% (more likely to be revised down IMO) then I can't see why they'd do it now if they didn't do it before. So it is looking increasingly like a one and done. America's fiscal tightening cycle a whole 0.25% increase! And that took the markets down over 10% initially so makes you wonder what a real hike would do. I think America is demonstrating that there is no way back to normal interest rates without collapse now. Markets are too addicted to free money.

[Zag zig]

On 2 May 2016 at 11:44, SillyBilly said:

So, I was wrong on the U.S, no follow-up interest rate hike and with the GDP 1st quarter @ 0.5% (more likely to be revised down IMO) then I can't see why they'd do it now if they didn't do it before. So it is looking increasingly like a one and done. America's fiscal tightening cycle a whole 0.25% increase! And that took the markets down over 10% initially so makes you wonder what a real hike would do. I think America is demonstrating that there is no way back to normal interest rates without collapse now. Markets are too addicted to free money.

Long believe we are in a currency death spiral in the West with a race to the bottom, so say again it ends with the dollar last man standing, so they can't raise rates further as they were trying to protect the dollar. Where that all leads I'm not sure but I believe it is being recognised in P.M fundamentals presently; albeit they are starting to look toppy and a pullback could be happening right now.

SLV wouldn't surprise me falling back to 15's for instance.

[SillyBilly]

 

17 minutes ago, Zag zig said:

Long believe we are in a currency death spiral in the West with a race to the bottom, so say again it ends with the dollar last man standing, so they can't raise rates further as they were trying to protect the dollar. Where that all leads I'm not sure but I believe it is being recognised in P.M fundamentals presently; albeit they are starting to look toppy and a pullback could be happening right now.

SLV wouldn't surprise me falling back to 15's for instance.

Aye, gold had a pop at 2015 high but appears to have come just short. I am hoping this is the start of the pull back and an opportunity to load up again at or near the bottom - been fairly quiet of late as I sold the majority of my PM stocks end of Feb (expected the pull back then) and have painfully watched them go onto crazy highs over the past 2 months (not in the best of moods as you can imagine!). My largest PM stock holding (First Majestic) has put on 100% in just 2 months since I sold.....quite astonishing as the underlying metal price for the most part (bit of a run up of late) hasn't changed. Least I still got the day job.

[Zag zig]

1 hour ago, SillyBilly said:

 

Aye, gold had a pop at 2015 high but appears to have come just short. I am hoping this is the start of the pull back and an opportunity to load up again at or near the bottom - been fairly quiet of late as I sold the majority of my PM stocks end of Feb (expected the pull back then) and have painfully watched them go onto crazy highs over the past 2 months (not in the best of moods as you can imagine!). My largest PM stock holding (First Majestic) has put on 100% in just 2 months since I sold.....quite astonishing as the underlying metal price for the most part (bit of a run up of late) hasn't changed. Least I still got the day job.

Took a fair few off the table myself but it doesn't matter, timing is one thing, picking tops or bottoms is harder still, being more right than wrong is all that counts. Just have to remember there is always another trade S.B

[SillyBilly]

That graph sums up where global growth has come from in the last 8-9 years. China has just overtaken us in indebtedness..

They will be behind only Greece and Japan by year end 2016 @ 260%+. For a developing nation this spells carnage. Bad debt being rolled over in the State Owned Enterprises (non financial corporate)...

The Great Depression never stopped America being a world superpower, China will have to go through something similar. The same voices of "it is different this time" are being put about but I don't see it myself.

[SillyBilly]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-24/the-tokyo-whale-is-quietly-buying-up-huge-stakes-in-japan-inc

The above link gives an indication of what is already happening but what will likely happen more. If you look at the above chart in my previous post you'd be wondering how Japan is not imploding. Well... the Central Bank buys anything it can to prevent it (props the market by being on the bid all the time), quite literally. Stock market going down?....chuck a trillion yen at it. All with money printed from thin air. They'll own over 50% of the Japanese bond market by 2017. Goldman Sachs predicts they will be the No. 1 shareholder in 40 of the Nikkei 225’s companies by end of 2017! Company Executives answering to the Central Bank! If people don't think there is a problem with bankers, central bankers, government and big business being too close then I just don't get it, can barely tell the difference anymore. They are mutually dependent  like never before.

[Zag zig]

Oh dear, hot on the heals of America scrapping the $100 bill, here comes the EU puppets 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/ecb-decrees-slow-death-of-500-euro-note-in-fight-against-crime

Of course if you happen to be extremely naive and believe this is about crime, no drama. Makes perfect sense, nothing to do with controlling the money supply and potential groundbreaker for cash abolition.

[eddie]

29 minutes ago, Zag zig said:

Oh dear, hot on the heals of America scrapping the $100 bill, here comes the EU puppets 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/ecb-decrees-slow-death-of-500-euro-note-in-fight-against-crime

Of course if you happen to be extremely naive and believe this is about crime, no drama. Makes perfect sense, nothing to do with controlling the money supply and potential groundbreaker for cash abolition.

In the 8 or so years I worked in the Euro zone, I never saw one, or even a €200, because nobody would ever accept anything larger than a €100. It was rumoured because of forgeries,.

[LesterRam]

2 hours ago, eddie said:

In the 8 or so years I worked in the Euro zone, I never saw one, or even a €200, because nobody would ever accept anything larger than a €100. It was rumoured because of forgeries,.

they used to dispense 200 euro notes from ATM's in Malta.

[Stive Pesley]

What's our largest bank note? £50? Never seen one

[Wolfie]

3 hours ago, Zag zig said:

Oh dear, hot on the heals of America scrapping the $100 bill, here comes the EU puppets 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-04/ecb-decrees-slow-death-of-500-euro-note-in-fight-against-crime

Of course if you happen to be extremely naive and believe this is about crime, no drama. Makes perfect sense, nothing to do with controlling the money supply and potential groundbreaker for cash abolition.

Why can't it be about crime?. Only the same as loads of outlets in the UK not accepting £50 notes due to the number of forgeries. Some large demoniation notes are just more trouble than they ware worth and, yes, maybe more so because people are using cash less nowadays. I rarely keep more than £20 in my wallet any more as pretty much everything is on plastic. If the Chinese takeway accepted cards I probably wouldn't even have that much. If someone tried to give me a £50 note I'd be suspicious.

I'm sure cash in it's current form will become obsolete but I don't expect it to disappear completely in my lifetime. Look how long it's taking cheques to die off.

[LesterRam]

6 minutes ago, StivePesley said:

What's our largest bank note? £50? Never seen one

that could be down to the fact that a large proportion of £50 notes are fake.

[Ramarena]

Not checked in here for a while. This weeks PMI's have red lights flashing all over the place. This article in the Indie stating that the next quarter could see 0% growth. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-chart-that-shows-the-uk-economic-recovery-is-on-its-knees-a7014566.html

A lot of people trying to pass this off as Brexit effect. I'm not buying that, look at the PMI and GDP trend, sure it'll have some effect, however the same people are claiming the economy is strong enough to return too good growth post Brexit, yet not strong enough to sustain growth in the run-up. 

Go figure! 

[LesterRam]

Did we leave the last recession, I think clever accountancy it was (sorry Yoda mode)

[Zag zig]

7 hours ago, Wolfie said:

Why can't it be about crime?. Only the same as loads of outlets in the UK not accepting £50 notes due to the number of forgeries. Some large demoniation notes are just more trouble than they ware worth and, yes, maybe more so because people are using cash less nowadays. I rarely keep more than £20 in my wallet any more as pretty much everything is on plastic. If the Chinese takeway accepted cards I probably wouldn't even have that much. If someone tried to give me a £50 note I'd be suspicious.

I'm sure cash in it's current form will become obsolete but I don't expect it to disappear completely in my lifetime. Look how long it's taking cheques to die off.

Never said it would happen today, tomorrow Wolfie  Just the roadmap and intent to me is clear. Take from it what you will.

Yeah know what you mean on £50 notes, but you go somewhere like the races and you'll find plenty in circulation. Always get rid of them as soon as I can myself for obvious reasons.

[SillyBilly]

8 hours ago, Wolfie said:

Why can't it be about crime?. Only the same as loads of outlets in the UK not accepting £50 notes due to the number of forgeries. Some large demoniation notes are just more trouble than they ware worth and, yes, maybe more so because people are using cash less nowadays. I rarely keep more than £20 in my wallet any more as pretty much everything is on plastic. If the Chinese takeway accepted cards I probably wouldn't even have that much. If someone tried to give me a £50 note I'd be suspicious.

I'm sure cash in it's current form will become obsolete but I don't expect it to disappear completely in my lifetime. Look how long it's taking cheques to die off.

I agree in the convenience sense. As I am anonymous on here I don't mind saying the only cash I keep is in my house but it is enough to live off for at least a couple of months. If there is a bank run or capital controls then I am okay for a bit. A very cheap insurance policy considering interest rates are pitiful.

No-one has a problem with cashless societies by the way, least of all me. I have a problem when my money isn't actually in the bank on deposit, all I have is a claim to the money in my account, at least with cash, I have what I have. I have a big problem with that. I also know that crime is a tiny threat to a bank in comparison to a bank run (which could make the bank insolvent within a few days). Fractional reserve lending means they don't have a mere fraction of what the depositors think they have on deposit - why should we let them get away with this by withdrawing our only protest vote, cash? I think we all saw the powers-that-be panic in Greece and Cyprus (and here with Northern Rock) when people vote with their feet. All we do without cash is give them absolutely no fear of their reckless behavior as there is no consequence. They can take whatever haircut they want from your digital accounts when the next crisis comes (legislation already in place) and kissing goodbye to cash means you can't do a thing about it. If I had a tenner in my account and the bank had a tenner on deposit and I could spend that tenner with a card then that'd be something!