Ramarena Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 45 minutes ago, GeneralRam said: They'll prop it up with interest rate rises though. True, and that will have ramifications in other parts of the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Indeed - anyone who has bought a house in the past 10 years has barely any idea of what affect a rate rise will have on them. But once they start moving rates, all hell could break loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 30 minutes ago, StivePesley said: Indeed - anyone who has bought a house in the past 10 years has barely any idea of what affect a rate rise will have on them. But once they start moving rates, all hell could break loose Ditto cars, new car sales are "booming" however 80% of sales are finance and those finance deals are dependant upon low rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Big pressure on the Chinese market tomorrow - I imagine lots of people will be panic selling as soon as the market opens. "Buy high, sell low" right guys? Right? It seems to my untrained eye that China have no reason to want to devalue their currency or start a currency war as some people are touting. As far as I understand: Devaluing currency -> increase in exports -> capital outflow weakening economy further -> Further market falls I personally believe it's to do with the number of small investors jumping on the elevator with a piece of Chinese stocks that boosted the market faster than the economy was truly growing and now it is bringing its self back down to the true value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 33 minutes ago, Chris Mills said: Big pressure on the Chinese market tomorrow - I imagine lots of people will be panic selling as soon as the market opens. "Buy high, sell low" right guys? Right? It seems to my untrained eye that China have no reason to want to devalue their currency or start a currency war as some people are touting. As far as I understand: Devaluing currency -> increase in exports -> capital outflow weakening economy further -> Further market falls I personally believe it's to do with the number of small investors jumping on the elevator with a piece of Chinese stocks that boosted the market faster than the economy was truly growing and now it is bringing its self back down to the true value. Devaluing your currency increases your competitiveness in international markets, makes debts denominated in the currency worth less and shrinks a trade deficit (or grows a surplus). China's been on an almighty debt binge since 08/09 building anything and everything, it is this which has set the commodity collapse into place hence Brazil/Canada and other commodity producers now tanking (wasn't sustainable). Oz to follow. The real question is how much does China actually owe? Its banking system is a state run cartel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 8 hours ago, ValeRam said: 5 hours ago, Shang said: Which is what Osbourne has brought up in his speech and made a really big point about it. Kept reiterating the BofE is independent but should raise interest rates soon. My short-term strategy is to bet against UK PLC, too little too late IMO. Horrid national debt, big current account deficit (propped up by capital inflows into housing - wahey!), big budget deficit and a terribly unbalanced economy. Well done George. The most attractive thing about the FTSE is that most of its earnings are in foreign currencies, otherwise wouldn't hold anything UK related for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 12 hours ago, Ramarena said: Trading suspended in China again today, Brent Crude tumbles to $32.25 this morning, FTSE could well drop through the 6000 barrier, this seems to have stirred the government with Osborne coming out of hiding to tell us the economy faces “dangerous cocktail of new threats”. Supposedly Asia's stockmarkets suffered $1.2 trillion in losses today, wow good job it's all magic money eh. Trading will always be suspended there IF there is a drop(or rise) greater than 7% on the main index, it's one of the golden rules they put in place to protect the local market; irony being it is just as likely to fall further when it reopens owing to the fact unlike Wall St, FTSE, DAX etc which are loaded with big boy fund monies, the Shanghai has a glut of retail punters, cue herd panic! The index dropped 42% in just 2 and a half months before and the only reason it rebounded was down to government intervention in the markets, buying up stocks that retail punters had lost confidence in. Potentially it's the next Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shang Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I can't believe a majority of our economy relies on houses. It's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 6 hours ago, StivePesley said: I remember the days when the panic was all about "peak oil" and the doom-mongers were predicting ever increasing prices as oil became a rarer and rare commodity! Difference being it was in the interests of governments that derived their revenues from oil, to help project that fear, their interests were akin to big oil at the time. Now interests of the main players have diverged, the frackers need to be crushed etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I imagine shanghai will only be open for half an hour each day for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 37 minutes ago, ketteringram said: I imagine shanghai will only be open for half an hour each day for a while. Hope the staff are not paid an hourly rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 George Soros splashed all over every financial website warning of global instability. He must be short on something... Buffett sitting on largest cash pile ever. Stanley Druckenmiller bought +$300M in gold last year. Carl Icahn's video of impending collapse. Soros shorting. Anybody would think they know something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Beans and shotguns. Just as we get promoted too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35253188 Should be fun tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 http://inequalitybriefing.org/graphics/briefing_43_UK_regions_poorest_North_Europe.pdf I find the above a shocking indicator. The rest of the U.K bar London is the poorest part of Northern Europe. 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in Northern Europe are in the U.K while London is the richest. I wonder when people are going to start demanding some action now the only people making any money in the U.K are corrupt bankers?This is partly the reason I feel our long term future is bleak, its like UK PLC has been asset stripped apart from banking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 1 hour ago, SillyBilly said: http://inequalitybriefing.org/graphics/briefing_43_UK_regions_poorest_North_Europe.pdf I find the above a shocking indicator. The rest of the U.K bar London is the poorest part of Northern Europe. 9 out of 10 of the poorest regions in Northern Europe are in the U.K while London is the richest. I wonder when people are going to start demanding some action now the only people making any money in the U.K are corrupt bankers?This is partly the reason I feel our long term future is bleak, its like UK PLC has been asset stripped apart from banking. The truth will come out in 20 years if you request a freedom of information act file, oh no it's exempt, oh it's fun this game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 IMO we'll know whether this will be a good event or bad event for the average Joe by the IMF's role in it. In the last crisis we had the national central banks re-liquefy the banking sector to prevent a collapse. IMO, it'll be hard for them to do that again without a complete collapse in confidence: a) politically impossible b) Their balance sheets would be overwhelmed (the Fed has $4.5trillion on its balance sheet already) So, that leaves us with the IMF, the only institution with a clean balance sheet. If they respond with a global MASSIVE issuance of their currency (SDRs), backed by the current global reserves currencies (Yen, Dollar, soon to be Yuan, Euro, Sterling), this I reckon would extend the life of this corrupt monetary system by flooding the world with more worthless currency and at the same time making it even more opaque to the citizens of the world. Our currencies are backed by nothing and people don't understand that concept. Yet the SDR would be backed by nothing but a basket of those same currencies. It will just build another layer on top of the murky financial system we already have. I suspect people could buy it and on we go. Just seems ominous to me the noises coming from the IMF. Seems like they are fast-tracking the Yuan in (hence China's rush to devalue repeatedly in preparation for its inclusion in the SDR in September) to set this thing up. The SDR would never have to be printed in bank note form (IMO) but in the above scenario it would fit that it gradually replaces the dollar for international trade settlements to become the world's de-facto reserve currency. Never actually seen as something tangible by the ordinary folk though. I would think it incredibly dangerous to create a global central bank (IMF), they would hold immense power (you control the money supply, you control everything in my view) and have absolutely no political accountability. The further power is away from the people the more corrupted it becomes. Personally, I see this as the very worst outcome. It means they can protect the wealth disparity for a number of years more (increase it actually), introduce inflation at will and become even less accountable for their actions. The worrying thing to my mind about the potential of massive SDR issuance is it actually would create inflation (and they are desperate for it) but the key thing is the average Joe wouldn’t know SDRs were causing it. The inflation from the issuance would show up only later in the currencies its backed by. Basically, robbing from Main Street in price increases on every day items to pay for the bail out of the recklessness of Wall Street. I seriously hope this is not the way things are headed but this looks to be a possible way for the establishment to quietly manage the dollar out of the international monetary system without upsetting the status quo. There would still have to be an equivalent to 08/09 - you need a crisis to justify the action but it would not reset the system, merely re-calibrate it. They printed just over 180 billion SDRs last time round so admittedly we'd be talking a different ball game but I don't see it as an impossibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 2 hours ago, SillyBilly said: IMO we'll know whether this will be a good event or bad event for the average Joe by the IMF's role in it. In the last crisis we had the national central banks re-liquefy the banking sector to prevent a collapse. IMO, it'll be hard for them to do that again without a complete collapse in confidence: a) politically impossible b) Their balance sheets would be overwhelmed (the Fed has $4.5trillion on its balance sheet already) So, that leaves us with the IMF, the only institution with a clean balance sheet. If they respond with a global MASSIVE issuance of their currency (SDRs), backed by the current global reserves currencies (Yen, Dollar, soon to be Yuan, Euro, Sterling), this I reckon would extend the life of this corrupt monetary system by flooding the world with more worthless currency and at the same time making it even more opaque to the citizens of the world. Our currencies are backed by nothing and people don't understand that concept. Yet the SDR would be backed by nothing but a basket of those same currencies. It will just build another layer on top of the murky financial system we already have. I suspect people could buy it and on we go. Just seems ominous to me the noises coming from the IMF. Seems like they are fast-tracking the Yuan in (hence China's rush to devalue repeatedly in preparation for its inclusion in the SDR in September) to set this thing up. The SDR would never have to be printed in bank note form (IMO) but in the above scenario it would fit that it gradually replaces the dollar for international trade settlements to become the world's de-facto reserve currency. Never actually seen as something tangible by the ordinary folk though. I would think it incredibly dangerous to create a global central bank (IMF), they would hold immense power (you control the money supply, you control everything in my view) and have absolutely no political accountability. The further power is away from the people the more corrupted it becomes. Personally, I see this as the very worst outcome. It means they can protect the wealth disparity for a number of years more (increase it actually), introduce inflation at will and become even less accountable for their actions. The worrying thing to my mind about the potential of massive SDR issuance is it actually would create inflation (and they are desperate for it) but the key thing is the average Joe wouldn’t know SDRs were causing it. The inflation from the issuance would show up only later in the currencies its backed by. Basically, robbing from Main Street in price increases on every day items to pay for the bail out of the recklessness of Wall Street. I seriously hope this is not the way things are headed but this looks to be a possible way for the establishment to quietly manage the dollar out of the international monetary system without upsetting the status quo. There would still have to be an equivalent to 08/09 - you need a crisis to justify the action but it would not reset the system, merely re-calibrate it. They printed just over 180 billion SDRs last time round so admittedly we'd be talking a different ball game but I don't see it as an impossibility... Lets just scrap the whole system and go back to trading goats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 A little light relief. Didn't know where to post this, and didn't want to start a new thread, so I've put it here. It amused me, anyway. I had an e-mail from HSBC, a bank I don't personally bank with, apologising for "the inconvenience and frustration that you may have experienced as a result of our recent Online Banking issues. Our Online Banking services are now working and we are monitoring them closely. I want to reassure you that this was not a cyber attack. The problems experienced were due to internal issues and at no time was your data at risk. " It was signed by a John Hackett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 35 minutes ago, Phoenix said: A little light relief. Didn't know where to post this, and didn't want to start a new thread, so I've put it here. It amused me, anyway. I had an e-mail from HSBC, a bank I don't personally bank with, apologising for "the inconvenience and frustration that you may have experienced as a result of our recent Online Banking issues. Our Online Banking services are now working and we are monitoring them closely. I want to reassure you that this was not a cyber attack. The problems experienced were due to internal issues and at no time was your data at risk. " It was signed by a John Hackett. none of them admit to being hacked especially with Mr Hackett at the helm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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