ketteringram Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 4 minutes ago, Zag zig said: Yeah, beats taking it out on the Dog. Oh and, as I get older, I do get a little fonder of can kicking! I imagine the can kickers do as well, as none of them are likely to be young. If I can just stumble along until I shuttle off...... and the can is still in front of me at the time. Selfish I know but...... I would not want to be 18 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 7 minutes ago, ketteringram said: I know. While I am no fan of can kicking..... Let's face it , you know the alternative is just too weird to contemplate! Yup. Have to say I am intrigued on HPC about that billionaire chap on Suntory's thread and his assessment of the current situation. I would love to be a fly-on-the-wall for what is being said behind closed doors at the top levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 39 minutes ago, Zag zig said: Bold or pre conditioned? Do wonder looking at this very pro US and D stance, if as quite a few anti Armstrong critics suggest, during his spell in the State hotel he might have been lent on. I know, I know, one for the conspiracists but he's not been the same since to me. Beginning to sound a bit Jim Sinclair now. He'd hate to be thought of in that manner ha. Agree will be interesting to judge him in future, suppose he gets credit for at least making the calls. Can't say they are too outlandish either because I can hear the arguments for all coming true. Gold is the biggie from current levels. Some conditions. 23,000 is his min. for Dow in this bull run. He has another price target which I forget and the top one being 40,000. The prices being conditional on time and technicals etc. As far as I'm aware this price movement has to to take place at and around the time of the worst of the collapse so basically not too much longer by his theory. He doesn't give too much away without having to pay for it (!) but those numbers can only mean a bond market rout to money making its way to equity, presumably very quickly before the whole thing crashing again. Gold he gave some conditionality for lows (reckoning it could go as low as $670 or something but likely around $1000). Whatever the low, according to him, its going to smash new highs at the epicenter of the ultimate crash. $5000 may be pretty conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 1 hour ago, reveldevil said: Easy to say when you don't depend on it for your income! I did hear a environmental expert say the other day that in order for the UK to meet its obligations under Paris, it would have to immediately cease oil and gas production, and close all gas and coal power stations too! I don't think our government are taking the Paris agreement seriously. They have rammed approval for fracking in National Parks through parliament a couple of hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Anyone able to share what Brokerage accounts they use? Low fees is good for me, not interesting in "full-service" accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 1 hour ago, Chris Mills said: Anyone able to share what Brokerage accounts they use? Low fees is good for me, not interesting in "full-service" accounts. Chris it's hard to pin up a recommendation, because eventually you will find a flaw with most, but to help you specifically with your low fees quest, check these comparison articles. http://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/isas/stocks-shares-isa-providers-cost-comparison-table/ http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/diyinvesting/article-1718291/Pick-best-cheapest-investment-Isa-platform.html Once popular Selftrade is now Equiniti Ltd, they have taken over a few so may be under going change, I've got a few bob still left in them as a nominee broker, generally exiting them though. IF you get the trading bug and take it real serious, you will soon realise D.M.A is needed to trade on a par with the pro's, because eventually you will understand published price improvements or bid/offer spreads the brokers quote you are false. It's not so important if you are a buy and hold investor, but it can and will cost you money. Direct Access gives an advantage on the costs some nominee brokers would fleece you with. Indeed without it, you could be considered to be trading blind! D.M.A lets you see market depth, judge whether a stock has real demand in simple terms or whether it's weak and being hyped up (be very wary of Share Bulletin Board posters) Examples https://www.idealing.com/en/help/directaccess http://www.ig.com/uk/l2-trading-platform?CHID=1&QPID=11433248&QPPID=1&s_kwcid=AL!3219!3!70427232882!e!!g!!direct%20market%20access%20trading%20platform&gclid=CL6l7ebC8MkCFQoCwwodbV4KGA&ef_id=U0zvtAAAALlk7R-d:20151222223205:s Hope these are useful pointers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 14 hours ago, Chris Mills said: Anyone able to share what Brokerage accounts they use? Low fees is good for me, not interesting in "full-service" accounts. Being lazy, I will link you to a blog of a chap I read from another forum, he won't mind as he is always fishing for hits: http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2012/08/the-cheapest-low-cost-sipp-self.html I basically have the exact same set-up as this guy, so two of us came to the same conclusion of cheapest (and that was without me reading his post first). He shows the working out behind it depending on how much money you are working with. I am a huge advocate of rock-bottom fees, passive investing & a balanced portfolio so feel free to PM me any time if you want to check something. I highly recommend that guy's blog too, he is due to retire in his early/mid 40's and holds a regular enough job. That should tell you the level of commitment this guy goes to in minimizing portfolio costs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 1 hour ago, SillyBilly said: I am a huge advocate of rock-bottom fees, passive investing & a balanced portfolio so feel free to PM me any time if you want to check something. I highly recommend that guy's blog too, he is due to retire in his early/mid 40's and holds a regular enough job. That should tell you the level of commitment this guy goes to in minimizing portfolio costs. Wise words, if a little boring Another thing Chris, it pays to make use of ISA allowances trading. It is possible to make a small fortune using an ISA, John Lee who is certainly a active trader/investor is one to google and check his musings. He used to blog in the Telegraph I think. He was one of the traders to appear in the book Free Capital by Guy Thomas. I'd highly recommend it, if only to view how others have tackled the markets and help form an opinion of what kind of trader/investor you are. Like S.B feel free to P.M me any questions, I'll not give you any advice or tips, but I will attempt to answer questions if I can. Just remember most traders lose, simply because the odds are stacked against them, psychology is weak, markets rigged in favour of the big boys - not trying to put you off, merely highlight discipline is needed to succeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 3 hours ago, Zag zig said: Wise words, if a little boring Another thing Chris, it pays to make use of ISA allowances trading. It is possible to make a small fortune using an ISA, John Lee who is certainly a active trader/investor is one to google and check his musings. He used to blog in the Telegraph I think. He was one of the traders to appear in the book Free Capital by Guy Thomas. I'd highly recommend it, if only to view how others have tackled the markets and help form an opinion of what kind of trader/investor you are. Like S.B feel free to P.M me any questions, I'll not give you any advice or tips, but I will attempt to answer questions if I can. Just remember most traders lose, simply because the odds are stacked against them, psychology is weak, markets rigged in favour of the big boys - not trying to put you off, merely highlight discipline is needed to succeed. Yup :), very boring but for your average Joe (and I include myself as very average), the realisation we don't have the time, expertise, contacts, capital or knowledge to beat the market over any reasonable period of time is the most important to make IMO. I have created a 90% rules based portfolio which gives me some leverage to move into "undervalued" asset classes against "overvalued" asset classes. I have to be careful though as its my perception (& a few very basic valuation metrics) which ultimately drives this and I am biased, so I set the margins tight (and even then I break them sometimes - see below!). The other 10% is my "allowance" (I shouldn't really have this and it will likely underperform in the long run but it keeps me interested - no different to someone who likes a flutter I guess). Its that punt in gold or a hunch on USD vs. Euro based purely on what I think is going to happen that is quite exciting. That 10% is effectively trading and the 90% is investment for my retirement. I should really have moved a bit more from cash into the FTSE recently but my bias told me the FTSE had further to fall (in reality on my investment time-scale allocations on a 1-2 year personal outlook are pretty nonsensical). Its a constant battle to stick to rules that I am still learning myself. But getting stricter as time goes on. I am 100% confident that a boring rules based system that cheaply tracks the underlying market will vastly outperform the portfolio of actively managed average Joe over a number of years. And its really quite easy too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 2 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: Yup :), very boring but for your average Joe ......... I am 100% confident that a boring rules based system that cheaply tracks the underlying market will vastly outperform the portfolio of actively managed average Joe over a number of years. Was merely teasing a response as you guessed. Somehow you're not quite an average Joe because most lose as you know and I expect you do outperform them. May differ in trading but strong advocate of discipline and diversification too, whatever investing rules adopted. Would also add many Fund Managers that supposedly actively look after your interests are not worth paying, seen too many performance tables showing passive funds outperform them. Baffles me why let someone else manage your money, to me it's like saying to a stranger you're a nice bloke can you look after my wife! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6 hours ago, SillyBilly said: Being lazy, I will link you to a blog of a chap I read from another forum, he won't mind as he is always fishing for hits: http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2012/08/the-cheapest-low-cost-sipp-self.html I basically have the exact same set-up as this guy, so two of us came to the same conclusion of cheapest (and that was without me reading his post first). He shows the working out behind it depending on how much money you are working with. I am a huge advocate of rock-bottom fees, passive investing & a balanced portfolio so feel free to PM me any time if you want to check something. I highly recommend that guy's blog too, he is due to retire in his early/mid 40's and holds a regular enough job. That should tell you the level of commitment this guy goes to in minimizing portfolio costs. That's similar to the investing strategy I will adopt, looking for "lazy" investing so I can put my money and watch the returns through compounding and market growth. Won't be putting any money in for a few months yet as I need to do a lot more studying for now Thanks for the offer - I'm sure ill pop a few questions your way now and again! 4 hours ago, Zag zig said: Wise words, if a little boring Another thing Chris, it pays to make use of ISA allowances trading. It is possible to make a small fortune using an ISA, John Lee who is certainly a active trader/investor is one to google and check his musings. He used to blog in the Telegraph I think. He was one of the traders to appear in the book Free Capital by Guy Thomas. I'd highly recommend it, if only to view how others have tackled the markets and help form an opinion of what kind of trader/investor you are. Like S.B feel free to P.M me any questions, I'll not give you any advice or tips, but I will attempt to answer questions if I can. Just remember most traders lose, simply because the odds are stacked against them, psychology is weak, markets rigged in favour of the big boys - not trying to put you off, merely highlight discipline is needed to succeed. For the minute I doubt I'd be making enough profit to make any benefit from CGT relief (Believe currently the first £11,000 is tax free and I dont have any secondary homes etc?), but in the future thats something I'll be looking into. Will message you with any questions too! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Ignore the following was taken from 2011, broadly speaking, the figures are not too much different (a little worse as one can appreciate): Basically the U.K is the most indebted nation in the world (Japan for company). And we won't even bother with the unfunded liabilities for government that would sit as a liability for any corporation. So, we have an economy built on banks lending funny money against housing stock aided by government props. A real GDP driver by enslaving the masses into a lifetime of debt servitude for a shoe box. We then have our businesses which have more debt than they do output. At least we're not as bad as the Spanish on that one. We still have a ludicrously large banking system (even larger) for the size of our economy, a large portion of which is loaned out into the Eurozone. Weren't we supposed to re-balance our economy after we had the biggest fall of any developed nation in the last crisis? And then we have the government, who are still adding £70+ billion a year to the national debt as we can't get a deficit into a surplus 7 years into a "recovery" (at 0% interest rates). And the solution to all of this? Add more debt, get the banks lending to Joe public and encourage business to invest (by-word for take cheap money and buy their own stock)... To put it into context, between our government, our businesses, ourselves and our banks we have well over £10 trillion debt outstanding against a national income of c. £2 trillion. Remember that doesn't include unfunded liabilities. You may think, so what? However, it means, relative to other nations, we have brought forward growth or economic activity by taking on this amount of debt (and you can only do that to the point of free market credulity). It stands to reason we have less capacity to do so in the future unless that debt suddenly starts generating the returns we haven't seen until now. Basically we can't borrow much anymore without jeapordising our ability to pay it back. So, on that basis, I wouldn't say the U.K is in the shape Osborne says its in. We've basically maxed out the credit card ACROSS THE BOARD and got 2% or so growth with it...hardly sustainable. Our growth fundamentally relies on credit creation, kind of ironic then that deleveraging (which one would think is healthy) could kill the economy? Paying down debt doesn't create jobs and growth today, does it? So, on we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 And you could argue this is why we have a deflationary spiral central bankers can't understand? They thought QE (basically money printing) would stave off deflation and bring inflation back to their targets. Well...perhaps we are seeing evidence a world choked in debt is naturally deflationary as people/companies take money out of the productive economy and use it pay down/service their vast debts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 13 hours ago, SillyBilly said: Ignore the following was taken from 2011, broadly speaking, the figures are not too much different (a little worse as one can appreciate): Basically the U.K is the most indebted nation in the world (Japan for company). And we won't even bother with the unfunded liabilities for government that would sit as a liability for any corporation. So, we have an economy built on banks lending funny money against housing stock aided by government props. A real GDP driver by enslaving the masses into a lifetime of debt servitude for a shoe box. We then have our businesses which have more debt than they do output. At least we're not as bad as the Spanish on that one. We still have a ludicrously large banking system (even larger) for the size of our economy, a large portion of which is loaned out into the Eurozone. Weren't we supposed to re-balance our economy after we had the biggest fall of any developed nation in the last crisis? And then we have the government, who are still adding £70+ billion a year to the national debt as we can't get a deficit into a surplus 7 years into a "recovery" (at 0% interest rates). And the solution to all of this? Add more debt, get the banks lending to Joe public and encourage business to invest (by-word for take cheap money and buy their own stock)... To put it into context, between our government, our businesses, ourselves and our banks we have well over £10 trillion debt outstanding against a national income of c. £2 trillion. Remember that doesn't include unfunded liabilities. You may think, so what? However, it means, relative to other nations, we have brought forward growth or economic activity by taking on this amount of debt (and you can only do that to the point of free market credulity). It stands to reason we have less capacity to do so in the future unless that debt suddenly starts generating the returns we haven't seen until now. Basically we can't borrow much anymore without jeapordising our ability to pay it back. So, on that basis, I wouldn't say the U.K is in the shape Osborne says its in. We've basically maxed out the credit card ACROSS THE BOARD and got 2% or so growth with it...hardly sustainable. Our growth fundamentally relies on credit creation, kind of ironic then that deleveraging (which one would think is healthy) could kill the economy? Paying down debt doesn't create jobs and growth today, does it? So, on we go... Interesting. There was also some interesting financial news out over the last few days (convenient timing for the government). First up was the borrowing figures which were much worse (double) than the city expected. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12063710/George-Osbornes-deficit-target-in-doubt-as-borrowing-climbs-in-November.html This is on top of the story that British households are going further into debt- £40bn this year alone. http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/22/economy-concerns-as-household-debt-rises-to-40bn-in-latest-figures And finally we have the GDP results being downgraded for both Q2 (down from 0.7% to 0.5%) and Q3 (down from 0.5% to 0.4%) http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/daily-forex-fundamentals/british-economy-grows-less-strongly-in-q2-and-q3-20151224255071/ Things looking like they are now on a downwards trend, Q4 may improve because of the Xmas factor but I think 2016 Q1 could see a few "unexpected" problems (not unexpected to us, but the mainstream media). Thinking back to the prediction made by @LesterRam regarding a 2016 recession, it could be on, the financial/business environment in the U.K is certainly looking ropier than I would have expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Forgot this link as well http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/24/uk-unsecured-borrowing-rising-at-fastest-since-2007#comment-65642594 Unsecured borrowing through loans and credit cards from Britain’s banks is rising at its fastest rate since before the financial crisis, according to figures published on Thursday. The British Bankers’ Association (BBA) said the value of new consumer credit taken on in November was 5.7% higher than a year previously, the highest since March 2007. More fuel to the fire. How are they going to pay it all off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesterRam Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 can they really increase the BoE base rate ? how many people will be in negative equity ? its going to be a bumpy 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 I'm still wondering if the next move in US rates is up again, or down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18 hours ago, LesterRam said: can they really increase the BoE base rate ? how many people will be in negative equity ? its going to be a bumpy 2016 Indeed. I think the BoE have painted themselves into a corner, they are screwed if they raise and screwed of they don't. The economy is certainly on the slide, it's just not really been noticed by the average person on the street yet and the media don't like reporting negative domestic economic news. I don't think we will have a sudden recession, more a slide into it over a year or so. On a lighter note Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Neg. equity is not the major concern of the BoE IMO. Interest rates were dropped to allow the banks to recapitalise, not to bail out households. The base rate would have to rise to protect Sterling if the Fed continues to tighten. You can't run the massive deficit we do year-after-year coupled with tightening elsewhere and not expect a devalued currency (and therefore an increase in the cost of imports). Considering we don't make anything anymore, all other issues are secondary to propping up the pound. We can't act in isolation so I'd watch the Fed as a predictor of the BoE's next move. Recent Sterling performance has been poor (even dropped a few % against the Yen). In short I don't think the BoE is in control. I think the currency and bond markets determine its path from here. They obviously don't want to raise (and the same for the Fed) but (here is hoping) their hand is forced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Though it breaks every rule in their book to tighten into a slowing economy, unfortunately that is the reality of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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