mike93rh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Really interesting to read, that. Of course this is a very simplified model with lots of assumptions, like not taking into account possible injuries, dates that games will be played (clustered fixtures etc.), potential signings, effects of managerial changes, teams with more/less to play for nearer the end of the season, how the weather on the day may suit one team over another, etc. etc. So very much take the results with a pinch of salt, that's model analysis 101. But a very nice visualisation and interesting to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 To summarize, the autos are between 4/5 teams, with us in the mix. The playoffs will be made up of the current top 8. If you're one of the bottom three right now, you're really sausaged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanRam Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ok...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Albert - top work However, as you know, is all based on past performance ......... Most interesting stats are in takes circa 72 (or75 is run rate SO far this season) points to go into play offs ( amazingly could win 24 games and lose 22 ....and make play offs ) 50 points to be safe. 22 points difference = 11 at half way point, hence everyone THINKS league is closer than it ends up Top 2 ...I am not sure on this ..but generally 88 ? More clubs chasing Top2 should mean points dropped against each other and avoid Top2 getting 90+ We really need to focus on going from where we are to 88 So 40 points from 20 games. Be happy if we need 6 points from last 2 games. So if we get 34 from next 18 games.......we are in with a good shout. A record of W10 D4 L4 over next 18 games........ I much prefer your "points required are likely to be stats ............" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gypsy Ram Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I don't get it... It's basically a smarter way of saying this: To summarize, the autos are between 4/5 teams, with us in the mix. The playoffs will be made up of the current top 8. If you're one of the bottom three right now, you're really sausaged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So the higher you are in the table, the more likely you are to go up.... Sometimes I love reading these sorts of stats, but not when it really doesn't tell us anything new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The pie charts give me a visual demonstration that we are pretty much just as likely as anyone else to do well and go up though, I like that. Good way of showing how tight it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What I found interesting was that I compared our points total for the first half of the season (up to 23 games) to our points total for the first half of last season - and we were actually doing better last season. Yet my perception (and I suspect most) is that we have generally been doing better this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gypsy Ram Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What I found interesting was that I compared our points total for the first half of the season (up to 23 games) to our points total for the first half of last season - and we were actually doing better last season. Yet my perception (and I suspect most) is that we have generally been doing better this season. Not at all, I think we are worse this season. By a couple of points and a few goals. Various factors play into it: injuries, new players, teams adjusting to our style, etc... Weather, the ref, traffic, cheating opposition players, oh wait that's Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not at all, I think we are worse this season. By a couple of points and a few goals. Various factors play into it: injuries, new players, teams adjusting to our style, etc... Weather, the ref, traffic, cheating opposition players, oh wait that's Forest. I meant perception though - as we've been top a couple of times and only ever a few points off. Whereas last season, because Leics and Burnley were running away with it, it felt like weren't doing so well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red_Dawn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Im guessing you like making pie charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What I found interesting was that I compared our points total for the first half of the season (up to 23 games) to our points total for the first half of last season - and we were actually doing better last season. Yet my perception (and I suspect most) is that we have generally been doing better this season. We started slow last season .......so were never able to reach top spot. This season having been top seemingly loads of times, we just appear to have been better. We just have to get to 88 points. and a run like we had last season of four games without a win from memory will totally scupper us. That is the fear. Even back in 1991/92 we had a great run in .......but an away defeat at Ipswich was about our only slip up, and we missed out on the Premier League by about 15 minutes last day of season as Boro won at Wolves with ten men ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cosmic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Im guessing you like making pie charts Guys, what do we do when one of these escapes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red_Dawn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Guys, what do we do when one of these escapes? Considering we won it means I get free roam of the forum. 'Il post where I want' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LOVE Albert's stats pages... However this doesn't take into account any improvements or dips in form moving forwards... An example like Birmingham coming back from looking in trouble this season, Palace in the Prem under Pulis last season and mid season drop offs like we did in the promotion season under the angry scottish sausage sausage sausage sausage sausage sausage sausage sausage Sorry got a bit stuck there... Anyway... It doesn't take into account any overall changes in form... Not small runs, but complete changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Silly question - does it take into consideration where teams still have to play each other? Both teams can't win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Silly question - does it take into consideration where teams still have to play each other? Both teams can't win Not as far as I can tell from Albert's explanation... He's taken the current PPG and then worked out the chances of (basically) those teams finishing in certain positions based on teams maintaining (or not) their current PPG... Either that or he's spent a LOT of time coming to the stunning conclusion that if every team maintains their PPG for the rest of the season the league will finish exactly as it is now... I really hope that's not what he's done... and I think that's where the %'s come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stripperg-ram Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm still not sure what these stats mean in real terms, but I'm genuinely impressed by the effort that went into making them and presenting them to us all. I can barely be arsed to get dressed some mornings, so I'm always impressed by someone who goes to this level of effort. For what it's worth, I think our chances of automatics will be sealed between now and the end of feb. Feel likes the first time in about 3 months when we've got a run of games against 'lesser' teams. Obvs we've got Bournemouth away and maybe Wednesday will be tricky. But if we go on on a run and, most vitally, pick up a point against the harder teams and despatch the 'easier' teams who've spent most of the time in the bottom half of the table, then I think we'll kick on from there and get a top 2 place. After the dust has settled from the Forest game, and we look at where we're at, then we're 3 pts from the top with a game in hand, and everyone's in agreement that, as a team, (apart from a handful of games) we're still yet to gel. So if we can get through the next month and carry on winning, I think we'll be alright. I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ram8 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Very interesting reading , and worth doing .. however , as a summary , I would say that the outcome lies very much in our own hands , rather than all the fairly random factors concerning other teams .. in essence , if we continue to play our own brand of positive football ,whilst tightening up 10% or so at the back , getting Thorne back in the next 3/4 weeks ( and him performing at , say , 80% or so of the level he did last season ) and the rest staying relatively injury free ( particularly Hughes and Martin ) , then I am confident we will be top two .. if we fall significantly short on some of those factors , then it's 'play-offs here we come again' .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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