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Spain v Chile


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Amazing to think that less than a week into the tournament, Spain are already in the last chance saloon,


I reckon they'll get a decent win tonight - IF they get an early goal.

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The picture for Spain is clear, a loss makes it:

Netherlands: 6 points, +5

Chile: 6 points, +2 [+s]

Australia: 0 points, -3

Spain: 0 points, -4 [-s]

Where 's' is the number of goals Chile beats them by.

A draw makes it:

Netherlands: 6 points, +5

Chile: 4 points, +2

Spain: 1 point, -4

Australia: 0 points, -3

They would need to hope that the Dutch beat Chile, and that they not only be Australia, but the goal difference falls in their favour. If the Dutch win by 'n' and the Spainish win by 'm', then 'n+m' would need to be at least 5. If it is 5 the question becomes more complex of course. If I recall it goes to goals scored, for which Chile have 3 from the opening game, them 1. In the case of a draw that 2 goal lead would remain. That means that they'd need to score at least 2 more than Chile. If it is two more than Chile, and all that happens, it would be very interesting to see what happens, as the next criteria is results between teams, and it being a draw would mean they are equal on all given criteria. I think from there they draw lots. I'll look into past examples, if there are any.

Of course, the win is the best for Spain:

Netherlands: 6, +5

Chile: 3, +2 [-p]

Spain: 3, -4 [+p]

Australia: 0, -3

Where 'p' is the number of goals Spain win by. They'd want a big win as well, as a Chile win against the Dutch could well send them home without a mammoth win against Australia.

Taking that final table above though, and thinking about results, a win for Spain and a draw or loss for Chile puts Spain through. If Spain draw they need the Dutch to win unless they beat Chile by 3 or more. If they do end up level on points and goal difference, they'd need to score more in their draw than Chile did. Equal goes to lots again from what I can tell.

The most complex scenario is a Spanish and Chilean win on that final day. If Spain win by 'a' and Chile by 'b', then p+(a-b)>3 puts Spain through, p+(a-b)<3 puts Chile through and p+(a-b)=3 of course puts it to goals scored. If 'A' are the total goals scored by Spain in that final match and 'B' are Chile's, then A-B>2 puts Spain through, A-B<2 puts Chile through and A-B=0 puts it to results between the teams, which would have required a Spainish win, hence they go through.

Of course, if Australia beats Spain by 'x' goals and Chile lose by 'y' goals. Then if x+p+y>5 (and it has to be at least 3 for this to occur) Australia go through x+p+y<5 Chile go through and x+p+y=5 it goes to goals scored. With Australia having 3 now and Chile having 3 in their opening game, then Australia would need to have scored how many they score today and how many they score on the final match day +1 to through, as equal would have Chile go through thanks to the 3-1 loss on the first match day.

This all said, Spain are on the absolute brink now.

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