Tombo Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Whenever I hear people saying that they don't want us to go up, I never really understand. All I can think is that people are (quite naturally) scared of a repeat of 07/08. That was a freak occurrence, a one-off, and it won't happen again if we were to go up. We might come straight back down, we might finish bottom, but we'd do quite a bit better than 11 points. As it has been quite rightly said, no team is ever ready to go up. There are only a few players in Leicester's team that I would consider Premier League quality, and yet I know that they will strengthen next season and they are as likely as any other team to stay up in the Prem. We would do the same. Hughes, Bryson, Grant, Ward (when/if he regains his past form anyway), maybe even Chris Martin and Richard Keogh. All players who I think could give the Premier League a good go. Then the jury is out on players like Jake Buxton, who despite his lack of natural ability could have enough work rate in his game to keep his head above water against Premier League sides. Or Dawkins, who has moments of pure magic when beating the man in front of him and maybe given a good pre-season with us could see major improvements. Or perhaps Russell, will still only be 24 at the start of next season and therefore has plenty to learn, could put his injury troubles behind him and make significant improvements in his game. Then our coaching team: McClaren is known as one of the best English coaches in years but had far too much far too soon. He has learned from his mistakes and is better for his troubles with the National Team. He also has good contacts across England and all of Europe really. Plus his reputation means players will want to be coached by him. Then we have Paul Simpson, who if you look at his managerial record, wasn't actually that bad as a manager himself. He also knows a lot about the game if you hear him talk about the team. He can only serve us well as Assistant/First Team Coach (whatever, same thing). Then Eric Steele, known as one of the best GK Coaches around right now. Can not only pass on his vast experience to goalkeepers but also to the strikers (goalkeeper tendencies and tips on how 'Keepers are conventionally coached could be of much help to a striker wanting to learn how to outwit a goalkeeper) We could go up and stay up if things go our way, stranger things have happened. Besides, what have we got to lose? If we come straight back down, we get parachute payments for the next couple of years which puts us in pole position to go straight back up again. The Premier League season of 07/08 wasn't what did us the damage. That was silly managers like BD and PJ throwing money aimlessly and hoping something sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martyn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Get aboard the gravy train,and don't spill the gravy. I like this! I think this pretty much sums up what we need to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Celtic fans Some do as there's no money in the SPL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martyn Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 07/08 threw up a £14m cash surplus on operations,therefore on the basis of an admittedly simplistic extrapolation,a fresh Prem season may well throw up £20m+.Far from an exact science,but at least it gives a flavour (and wages would have to be kept in check). Do we know what the trend for Prem wages is at the moment? There has been talk of players "having to be more realistic" in their wage demands in recent years, but do we know if there has been any drop of the average PL wage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChaddesdenRam Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If we were to be promoted we would need: A quality premier league CB New LB Prem Experience CDM that isn't afraid to tackle. Two fast and tricky wingers A proven goalscorer i.e. not Robert Earnshaw or Kenny Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFC_17 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If we were to be promoted we would need: A quality premier league CB New LB Prem Experience CDM that isn't afraid to tackle. Two fast and tricky wingers A proven goalscorer i.e. not Robert Earnshaw or Kenny Miller. earnshaw and miller were both proven goalscorers, they just failed to deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramblur Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Do we know what the trend for Prem wages is at the moment? There has been talk of players "having to be more realistic" in their wage demands in recent years, but do we know if there has been any drop of the average PL wage? Sorry Martyn,unfortunately,after flying for 4 months,my replacement hip took a turn for the worse (overnight) a few weeks ago,to the extent I was back on crutches for a day and eventually had to go through A&E.I'm just too depressed to launch into the kind of research I might have undertaken some time ago. What I will say is that,if we were to go up now,our starting wage base might be similar to the 07/08 one,and if you included the Jan 08 business we signed quite a few on Prem wages to end up with our £23m players' wage bill.Even if this bill were to increase by £7m,a cash surplus might still enable us to spend around £15m on transfer fees (all in).Although I said my extrapolation was a bit simplistic earlier,I do feel that other revenues might increase significantly compared to 07/08 ,thus negating the loss accruing from the S/T offer (and ticket prices in the Prem might see a hike).On the expenditure side,wages are far and away the most significant expense in a Prem season,so I'd hope any increases in the other expenses might be covered by an increase in other revenues (excuding Sky). I don't want to turn this into a thread on my personal medical problems,but I'd much appreciate it if anyone (or anyone who knows anyone) who's had a hip replacement that developed problems down the line could PM me (if the outcome was eventually positive ) .Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramblur Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 We could go up and stay up if things go our way, stranger things have happened. Besides, what have we got to lose? If we come straight back down, we get parachute payments for the next couple of years which puts us in pole position to go straight back up again. The Premier League season of 07/08 wasn't what did us the damage. That was silly managers like BD and PJ throwing money aimlessly and hoping something sticks. We'd get parachute payments for 4 years,and far more in total than the last time,so your point is reinforced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
curb Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I can sympathise with the OP, but for different reasons. I personally don't like the Prem at all, it annoys me immensely, not being able to compete with the plastic money no object clubs does my head in. I'm loving it at the minute, we're playing great football, we're bombing forward and leaving ourselves exposed, and we'd consistently get hammered if we went up, we might be able to cling on for a year or two, but that's all it would be, clinging on. Don't get me wrong, if I thought we could put together a Wanchope/Biaano/Eranio/Stimac side that could take it to the top clubs then I'd love it, but I don't think that's possible anymore. We have to challenge at the top of this division, that's the minimum we should expect, but I wouldn't be gutted about not going up this year, I'd be gutted about losing a play-off game, but I wouldn't be too fussed about another season in the Championship, if we're playing great football again like this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archram Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Sorry you're having trouble,Ramblur. Hope it settles down ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramblur Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Sorry you're having trouble,Ramblur. Hope it settles down ok. Thanks,archram. Following on from what I said earlier,I derived my figure for the bottom club in 12/13 from this:- http://www.sportingintelligence.com/2013/05/21/where-the-money-went-premier-league-prize-and-tv-payments-for-2012-13-210501/ You'll note that overseas rights for the 3 seasons 2013-16 have increased by over £500m,an increase per season of over £165m.As most of this will no doubt be shared amongst Prem clubs (though parachute payments also usually receive a hike),my earlier figures may well have been a bit conservative. A newly promoted club would/should budget for the worst case scenario (as should several other clubs),viz finishing bottom.Should we get up and stay up,we'd receive at least £2m extra (3x £755,881 per place-though increased overseas rights might also uplift this figure).This would be like a lucrative cup run,and should mean a bigger overall budget for the following year (unless diverted elsewhere). If you scroll to the bottom of the page,you'll see just how many clubs were receiving parachute payments,and this year there'll be a further 3 on top whack (with one or two dropping out).If a trimmed Wolves were to be promoted,they'd still have 2 chute payments to look forward to in the following 2 seasons. Having just reread the link,it states that,following the new deal,a bottom club can now expect to receive around £60m,so my figures have been well and truly overtaken.I now estimate we could spend £30m if promoted and run a wage bill over £30m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Is there any team genuinely ready to go up? Cardiff were arguably the most ready team, winning the league after 3 seasons in the play offs and look at them now. New manager, 15 new signings and sitting 19th in the league. Compare them to someone like Stoke who got promoted in 2nd place after previous finishes of 8th, 13th & 12th are now in their 6th season in the prem having finished no lower than 14th in that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ewetube Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Me neither, late spring will do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Sorry Martyn,unfortunately,after flying for 4 months 4 month flight? Are you one of those Mars explorer robot probing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ossieram Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 4 month flight? Are you one of those Mars explorer robot probing things? Why would you go to mars to probe a robot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramblur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I missed off the promotion bonuses that would have to be paid in my earlier calculations.Firstly,I'll explain how I originally came to the conclusion that we'd be able to spend,say,£30m on transfers and run a wage bill of over £30m-you'll note that this comes to an unspecified amount above the minimum £60m we could now apparently expect from TV cash.This assumed that the other income would more than cover the other (cash) expenditure,with any surplus augmenting the starting point of £30m wages (and of course you could vary the mix of transfer fees v wages).The reason I was confident of a surplus again came as a result of my analysis of 07/08.By stripping out paper transactions and using simple algebra,I was able to calculate other income at £16.4m and other (cash) expenditure at c£11.7m,a surplus not far off £5m.As a check,players' wages came in at £23m,with TV money at £32.16m-if you were to add the surplus here of £9m to the other c£5m surplus,you get to an overall £14m surplus as shown in the cash flow statement for 07/08. So what's the revised estimate for a new foray? Promotion bonuses are unquantifiable (by us),but it's quite likely that they would at least wipe out the surplus on the 'other' side and possibly mean a wage bill below £30m,rather than above.I'd also point out that all of this involves using the whole of a Prem season surplus,which brings certain problems. The Sky cash seems to come in 3 tranches-August,January and finally at the season end (including prize money/Sky appearances).The problem the LOG faced was that the relatively modest c£8m received in August,allied to any other income netted,had to cover a whole half year's running expenses + any transfer fee instalments,before the next tranche in January-hence the need for a kind of bridging finance.Our owners would face a similar problem,although the tranches would be significantly higher.I'd expect to see financing either by share capital/loan capital (where my money would go)/external debt (including route taken by LOG).The problem is,if they went down the loan capital route and hoped to recoup this at the end of the season,we'd be left in exactly the same situation for the following season.Paying fees in instalments doesn't really help,as the following year you'd have to pay more instalments +any new instalments for that year,so you'd really have to store some cash to cover this. My own guess now is that they'd aim to spend £45-50m in total on wages/fees,unless they were willing to leave any initial funding intact(unpaid,for the time being) and hope to recoup it by staying up and thereby increasing the Sky payout. All of this assumes there won't be the great additional injection of finance some seem to hope for/expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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