notts_ram Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 I can't believe we're still debating this - any improvement or degradation is purely relative - you would be seen to "improve" if you stood still and the opposition worsened and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 I can't believe we're still debating this - any improvement or degradation is purely relative - you would be seen to "improve" if you stood still and the opposition worsened and vice versa. That's the thing.. No you wouldn't.. The opposition getting worse is not a case of you improving.. How can you think that? Derby County had a record last season of W16 D13 L17 Points 61.. Now if this season we have a record of W17 D13 L16 and 64 points then we've obviously done better than last year.. We've won more and lost less.. Yet if go into next season witha record of W15 D13 L18 then that's obviously worse and not an improvement.. I'm going by averages of the last 9 or 10 years.. You lot are basing your whole debate on a points total that was below the average.. Like I mentioned, an average of 73 points to make the playoffs.. If you decrease in points away from that tally then you're not improving.. If the average points tally to win the PL is 85 points and Man Utd get 79 one season (finishing 3rd) followed by 76 the next (finishing 2nd) then they're hardly going to turn round and say 'well we're improving' whilst Man City are hitting the average 85 point mark.. Our aim is to finish in the top 6 at least.. What good is it if we finish 7th but 15 points away from 6th.. That's not getting any closer to the number of points required to make the playoffs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 You missed my point Bris, I actually agree with you hence why I put improved in parenthesis - it would only be seen as an improvement relatively. in terms of the relative merits of points total against league position do clubs care about the former? In the Premiership everything revolves around league position irrespective of points, the higher you finish in the table the more money you get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 That's the thing.. No you wouldn't.. The opposition getting worse is not a case of you improving.. How can you think that? Okay Bris... If we got 1 more point than last season, finished in 11th and were further away from the playoffs (but further from relegation too) would that be an improvement or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Okay Bris... If we got 1 more point than last season, finished in 11th and were further away from the playoffs (but further from relegation too) would that be an improvement or not? Well yes.. That one point extra next season is one loss less.. The closer we get to 73 points the better.. Or 82 which I imagine is for more or less the average for 2nd place.. Maybe we'll get lucky and the averages are low, maybe we'll be unlucky and the averages are high.. But before a ball is kicked, I'd take 64 points over 61 points and not have to hope the averages are down.. Would you take 64 points over 61 before a ball is kicked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Well yes.. That one point extra next season is one loss less.. The closer we get to 73 points the better.. Or 82 which I imagine is for more or less the average for 2nd place.. Maybe we'll get lucky and the averages are low, maybe we'll be unlucky and the averages are high.. But before a ball is kicked, I'd take 64 points over 61 points and not have to hope the averages are down.. Would you take 64 points over 61 before a ball is kicked? Yes, I wouldnt see it as an improvement though until I knew where we would finish. Now if you were Bolton, would you take a 1 point drop if at the end of the season but finished 6th rather than 7th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Well yes.. That one point extra next season is one loss less.. The closer we get to 73 points the better.. Or 82 which I imagine is for more or less the average for 2nd place.. Maybe we'll get lucky and the averages are low, maybe we'll be unlucky and the averages are high.. But before a ball is kicked, I'd take 64 points over 61 points and not have to hope the averages are down.. Would you take 64 points over 61 before a ball is kicked? By the same token would you take 8th place even if we got less points? Simple answer is no... I think there are 3/4 teams in the league this season who are much weaker than the teams who went down... And so I think the points total for 6th (which is where I am optimistically thinking we'll finish) will be higher than it was this year... So No, in summary, I wouldn't take 64 right now as I think that will be 11th or 12th position next season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Yes, I wouldnt see it as an improvement though until I knew where we would finish. Now if you were Bolton, would you take a 1 point drop if at the end of the season but finished 6th rather than 7th ? Of course I would.. If anyone has a set target like staying up (17th spot in the PL), the top 6 in the NPC, top 4 in the PL, PL Champions etc. then you'd take that even if the points tally was low.. But as a target before the season.. You know what points tallies usually equate to each scenario.. It's why PL clubs aim for the magical 40 point mark and in the NPC it's the 50 point mark to stay up and 75 points guarantees the playoffs.. So if I were to say now to Hull City boss Steve Bruce.. Would you prefer to finish on 36 points or 42 then the answer is obvious.. There's not alot he can do if they finish on 42 and still go gown but if they finish on 36 and stay up that can only be down to luck in that there were somehow 3 teams worse than them.. It's suprising that a side can finish in the NPC on 61 points and finish in the top 10 and 68 points for a playoff spot.. This is an unusual case.. That's why I'm not getting carried away with league position because there is a very good chance that a side will finish outside the top 10 next season with more than 61 points and an unbelievably good chance that 68 points will not be enough for the playoffs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maydrakin Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 So using the points mean improvements thesis, let's say Yeovil have replaced Peterborough and come up and lose every game. Therefore, in comparison to last season we are 3 points better off if all other results stay the same. That means we have improved, as we have more points? Or does it mean we can't really compare as the standard of opposition has technically changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TelTheRam Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Well yes.. That one point extra next season is one loss less.. The closer we get to 73 points the better.. Or 82 which I imagine is for more or less the average for 2nd place.. Maybe we'll get lucky and the averages are low, maybe we'll be unlucky and the averages are high.. But before a ball is kicked, I'd take 64 points over 61 points and not have to hope the averages are down.. Would you take 64 points over 61 before a ball is kicked? Not necessarily - could be W1 L2 instead of D2 L1 Its all relative to other teams, you can't compare one season with another as all teams are different every season. This season we finished higher with fewer points, next it might be the opposite again. Its like comparing sportsmen from different eras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Not necessarily - could be W1 L2 instead of D2 L1 Its all relative to other teams, you can't compare one season with another as all teams are different every season. This season we finished higher with fewer points, next it might be the opposite again. Its like comparing sportsmen from different eras. You can't compare teams from one season to the next you're right.. You can't say 'Well we've beaten Burnley at home so we're already up by 3 points on last season' because Burnley could well be one of the sides going down.. But it's common knowledge that people talk about specific point targets that gets you to specific spots (Automatic promotion, Playoffs, above relegation).. For the past 12 years the average has been 73 points, hence why it's common knowledge that 75 points is enough.. And 40 is enough in the PL.. You can't look at the sides each year and think 'Well this season looks like a 68, and this season looks like a 73, and this season looks like a 71 etc..' The closer we get to 73 points the better chance we have of making the playoffs.. The further we fall away is the opposite.. Hence why I can't believe people genuinely believe 10th is an improvement from last season nwhen we were -3 points away from the playoff target.. For the past 12 years we get 6 new teams every season.. That's 72 new teams in 12 years, yet the averages stay the same and the 75 point tally is still talked about every season.. We've had 20 years of PL football.. That's 60 new promoted sides during that period.. And yet every year what's talked about first is that magical 40 point mark.. Every manager that's in or around the bottom lot will always talk about the first objective and that's 40 points.. If points weren't an indication of improvement and targets why do managers keep talking about the specific point targets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Scarlet Pimpernel Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 This is very very straight forward. The target for any season is to achieve as high a place as possible in the division. The vehicle to reach as high a position as possible is the points tally. The points tally is variable depending on the quality of the opposition as well as own performance. The key indicator of an improvement in performance is the final position. This is because the rewards are for the position achieved NOT the points achieved. The points required are secondary. This is a fact not an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rynny Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 You can't compare teams from one season to the next you're right.. You can't say 'Well we've beaten Burnley at home so we're already up by 3 points on last season' because Burnley could well be one of the sides going down.. But it's common knowledge that people talk about specific point targets that gets you to specific spots (Automatic promotion, Playoffs, above relegation).. For the past 12 years the average has been 73 points, hence why it's common knowledge that 75 points is enough.. And 40 is enough in the PL.. You can't look at the sides each year and think 'Well this season looks like a 68, and this season looks like a 73, and this season looks like a 71 etc..' The closer we get to 73 points the better chance we have of making the playoffs.. The further we fall away is the opposite.. Hence why I can't believe people genuinely believe 10th is an improvement from last season nwhen we were -3 points away from the playoff target.. For the past 12 years we get 6 new teams every season.. That's 72 new teams in 12 years, yet the averages stay the same and the 75 point tally is still talked about every season.. We've had 20 years of PL football.. That's 60 new promoted sides during that period.. And yet every year what's talked about first is that magical 40 point mark.. Every manager that's in or around the bottom lot will always talk about the first objective and that's 40 points.. If points weren't an indication of improvement and targets why do managers keep talking about the specific point targets? Your 1st paragraph contradicts the rest of your post and is what every person is saying. This is the reason why going on a points comparison season to season isn't an accurate way of judging whether or not you have improved. Managers talk about points totals as guidelines, normally they say something along the lines of "We need to get to 40 points as quickly as possible" this means the earlier they get to 40 points the more chance they have to get further away from the drop zone. You are right in that the closer you are to 73 points the better chance you have of making the playoffs but is not a guarantee, whereas if you are 6th you are guaranteed no matter the point total. How can an average stay at 75 each season for 12 years? That is impossible unless every year 6th place achieves 75 every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Hence why I can't believe people genuinely believe 10th is an improvement from last season nwhen we were -3 points away from the playoff target.. Last season we were 10th and 7 points off the playoffs... the season before we were 12th and 11 points off the playoffs... Is that not an improvement? And yet every year what's talked about first is that magical 40 point mark.. If points were the most important thing then no-one would have ever been relegated from the Prem on 40 points or higher... yet they have... People usually identify 50 points as being easily safe in the Championship yet 2 teams on higher than that went down last season... A points tally which would have seen them sitting 17th and 18th the season before... In fact Bristol City were 14 points off safety and still got a higher points total than all 3 relegated teams* the season before... *I will accept that the City example falls apart slightly with Portsmouth having been deducted points, but the rest still stands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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