Albert Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I wouldn't normally comment on transfer dealings, but it does bother me that Bailey is off dragging Coventry out of a relegation dogfight rather than fighting for a place here. Yes, I know that we have plenty of talented players in midfield right now, but as some have commented, Jeff's form hasn't been the best and surely Bailey would have been handy. Something I noticed last season was how much of an effect Bailey playing had on the results (I'm not talking about what happens on the field direct here, this is only about results now). As things stood, for Bailey, Bryson and Hendrick, the average points per game when they played was: Jeff Hendrick: 1.16±0.21 ppg (38 starts) Craig Bryson: 1.47±0.20 ppg (45 starts) James Bailey: 1.68±0.32 ppg (19 starts) Now, it is important to note that in the above that Bailey played significantly less games. But it holds that the team has played quite well with him in the team, for overall records: Robbie Savage: 1.19±0.13 ppg (108 starts) Jeff Hendrick: 1.23±0.17 ppg (57 starts) James Bailey: 1.30±0.19 ppg (53 starts) Paul Green: 1.31±0.13 ppg (111 starts) Craig Bryson: 1.48±0.17 ppg (65 starts) That's impressive from Bryson, but Bailey holds up pretty damn well in there, and put bluntly he's been a very tidy player for us. I really don't understand why he's been loaned out unless the club really felt that Hendrick, Bryson and Hughes were enough to play in the middle (Coutts can also play there, but hey). What even more striking is Coventry's record this season with and without Bailey in the league: Points without Bailey: 3 from 9 games Points with Bailey: 27 from 13 games In terms of points per game as before: With Bailey: 2.08±0.33 ppg - Serious promotion form Without Bailey: 0.33±0.16 ppg - Cut well adrift at the bottom form Doesn't really get more striking than that. So yeah, why is he with Coventry rather than us? Is he really not good enough to warrant some minutes in our midfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duracell Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 There's something we don't know. We very rarely get the full picture, as fans, and Clough would know that Bailey has often had a positive influence on the side. Maybe we concede more easily with him? Maybe he doesn't pull in the same direction and would set a bad example to Hughes? Maybe Clough doesn't like the fact he goes out a lot? It's speculation. The only things we can say are this; there wasn't a long queue of Championship clubs or even L1 clubs desperate for his signature, and we haven't sorely missed him. He wouldn't be starting for us. It's a classic case of stats not telling the full story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 There's something we don't know. We very rarely get the full picture, as fans, and clearly Clough knows that Bailey has often had a positive influence on the side. Maybe we concede more easily with him? Maybe he doesn't pull in the same direction and would set a bad example to Hughes? Maybe Clough doesn't like the fact he goes out a lot? It's speculation. The only things we can say are this; there wasn't a long queue of Championship clubs or even L1 clubs desperate for his signature, and we haven't sorely missed him. He wouldn't be starting for us. It's a classic case of stats not telling the full story. I think it's more a case of Hughes being a tidier player, than the stats not telling the story here. He's certainly had an effect at Coventry though. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try for him permanently. It may also be a case of squad balance, Hendrick may offer better balance to the side than having a midfield of Hughes, Bailey, Bryson and Coutts (with Jacobs as well potentially). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duracell Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think it's more a case of Hughes being a tidier player, than the stats not telling the story here. He's certainly had an effect at Coventry though. I wouldn't be surprised to see them try for him permanently. It may also be a case of squad balance, Hendrick may offer better balance to the side than having a midfield of Hughes, Bailey, Bryson and Coutts (with Jacobs as well potentially). Your stats don't include any information other than Bailey has played in games in which Coventry have done well. Since Bailey has gone to Coventry, they've felt the full benefit of a honeymoon period of a new manager and other loanees making an impact. Bailey might be the weak link in the side...I doubt it, but I haven't watched them this season. He was very un-Clough-like in character as well, which often confused me. Many of our players are ordinary blokes you'd go for a pint with - nice, if a little uncharismatic. Bailey piles on the fake tan and not a hair falls out of place for the entire match. He's probably more high maintenance than Jake Buxton who just needs to have his oil topped up every week. Squad balance is probably the biggest factor though, you're right. Did you see the tackle Hughes made on Tonge in the first half? He wrapped his legs around him and came away with the ball. Bailey never did that. I like him as a player and I wouldn't have let him go all things said and done, but he has limitations and some baggage which I'm sure puts off some proffesional managers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm quite a fan of Bailey. Needs the right partner in midfield though. I think Nigel likes box to box players in the middle. Bailey certainly isn't that. I'm not sure he could play very well in a 442 here with the players we have. He's built for 4231. Bit of umph next to him and flair in front of him and he can just feed people. Not been on the Cov forum for a while but they quite liked him last I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derby born & bred Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I would like to see him back in a Derby shirt, but think something has happened behind the scenes for Clough not to want him at Derby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Your stats don't include any information other than Bailey has played in games in which Coventry have done well. Since Bailey has gone to Coventry, they've felt the full benefit of a honeymoon period of a new manager and other loanees making an impact. Bailey might be the weak link in the side...I doubt it, but I haven't watched them this season. He was very un-Clough-like in character as well, which often confused me. Many of our players are ordinary blokes you'd go for a pint with - nice, if a little uncharismatic. Bailey piles on the fake tan and not a hair falls out of place for the entire match. He's probably more high maintenance than Jake Buxton who just needs to have his oil topped up every week. Squad balance is probably the biggest factor though, you're right. Did you see the tackle Hughes made on Tonge in the first half? He wrapped his legs around him and came away with the ball. Bailey never did that. I like him as a player and I wouldn't have let him go all things said and done, but he has limitations and some baggage which I'm sure puts off some proffesional managers. The beauty of the kind of analysis here is that you should be able to ignore other factors to an extent so long as a sufficiently large number of games have been played. Basically, after a while things even themselves out, which teammates they play with, form, decisions etc. The issue here is that it's no where near that point. I use 25 as a cutoff as these kind of problems will still have an effect after such a length of time, but it's still interesting. What's interesting is that from what I can tell their new manager's points per game is 1.71±0.36, which is actually worse than Bailey's has been (Bailey missed one of the losses). Completely irrelevant, but if the trend continues throughout the rest of his loan spell... We'll see what happens with him in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I expect that theres a perfectly normal explanation One of the following: A) Nigel hates him B.) he used the wrong bit of his foot to trap the ball C) he shagged steve davies's wife D) nigel hates him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Uses too much fake tan for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I would like to see him back in a Derby shirt, but think something has happened behind the scenes for Clough not to want him at Derby. What makes you think that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I neither liked or disliked Bailey, he's probably on loan because he's not good enough for us, he's still young and learning so maybe clough sent him out to give him a bit of experience or maybe to put him in the shop window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duracell Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I neither liked or disliked Bailey, he's probably on loan because he's not good enough for us, he's still young and learning so maybe cough sent him out to give him a bit of experience or maybe to put him in the shop window... You should have that checked out mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFCfranco Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You should have that checked out mate Autocorrect, but I've got my medicine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOB BIGGS Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I expect that theres a perfectly normal explanation One of the following: A) Nigel hates him B.) he used the wrong bit of his foot to trap the ball C) he shagged steve davies's wife D) nigel hates him Happy with most of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nookiebear Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 did i read somewhere he spends a lot of time away from derby??? maybe its not likely he will sign another contract or some reason like that??? we just dont really know. stats only tell you part of it really dont they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think he has done a good job at Coventry, not pulled up many trees. I don't think it's the end of the road at Derby. I know for the most part this season I would of picked him ahead of Hendrick. I do however think Hendrick has a bit more in his locker than Bailey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I would have thought it's very simple... Bailey passes the ball well, but not as well as hughes... he runs around a lot but not as much as bryson... and he's kind strong but not as much as hendrick (and not as tall...)... Most championship midfielders have one or two stand out attributes (work rate/vision/strength/tackling) and Bailey doesn't... very tidy across the board and an asset to any team BUT I think the other three are slightly better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Given his contact is up at the end of the season, I shall be suprised to see him in a Derby shirt again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DcFc Dyycheee Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I like Bails, but our midfield is too strong for him to get in atm. Also, I imagine he wanted to leave to play first team football? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think his predisposition to bars and clubs in Manchester endears him to the pint with your mates, boy next door NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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