Exam Results.

[djfred84]

7 hours ago, Van Wolfie said:

What a mess.

The government clearly wanted to stick to its guns on results moderation but found it untenable when the unfairness brought about by the algorithm was laid bare. After what happened in Scotland, they should have really seen this coming. It's a shame because the huge grade inflation problem has now been kicked into next year and this year's results will always be tainted as over-generous.

I know from work my company does in AI and machine learning that algorithms work well but only when there are large datasets (hundreds or thousands of data points). From what I've heard, it sounds like private schools were looked at individually, so very small amounts of data - rather than taking all private schools as one data set, which would have produced safer results.

Very poor planning either from the Govt or Ofqual but the problem is caused by over-generous predictions. I suspect that this has become a bit of a vicious circle: schools know that results are going to be moderated downwards, so this encourages them to be pre-emptively optimistic & therefore, grade inflation means that results are moderated downwards.....etc.....etc.

I would argue that using teachers predictions for a class of 5 100% and not at all for a class of 30 is the big problem. Then taking the last 3 years of that particular school is a disaster.

[djfred84]

7 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Glad they finally did the U turn, but I dont understand why they didn’t just sit the exams like most other countries in Europe. Shame we seem to rooster everything up based on mass hysteria and scaremongering 

Not really fair on those that did not have access  to certain pieces of material or able to revise at the time. Some students at especially gcse will have no access at all. I do not get why you use inflammatory wording.

[Gone]

20 minutes ago, djfred84 said:

Not really fair on those that did not have access  to certain pieces of material or able to revise at the time. Some students at especially gcse will have no access at all. I do not get why you use inflammatory wording.

Example Germans had the same lockdown restrictions , their students sat Exams.

What was so inflammatory? Mass hysteria and scaremongering? But if it is those the the main reason is........ I love a good wind up ?

you can boil some piss on here very easily quickly if you buck the trend a little 

[djfred84]

39 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Example Germans had the same lockdown restrictions , their students sat Exams.

What was so inflammatory? Mass hysteria and scaremongering? But if it is those the the main reason is........ I love a good wind up ?

you can boil some piss on here very easily quickly if you buck the trend a little 

Thats ok then, you know maybe some things are to be taken more seriously than others. Say the subject of a generations futures.

[Gone]

Just now, djfred84 said:

Thats ok then, you know maybe some things are to be taken more seriously than others. Say the subject of a generations futures.

Lol 

[Comrade 86]

 

9 hours ago, TexasRam said:

 I love a good wind up ?

you can boil some piss on here very easily quickly if you buck the trend a little 

So true. Back at the start of the pandemic, all you had to do was suggest that the government were ducking up the works and you'd have grown men bursting into tears, left right and centre. All you could hear for miles around was the sound of dummies and assorted toys hitting the deck. It was hilarious. Of course, they're mostly singing a different song now...

Anyway, I'm off to ponder the reasons why some on here are less bothered about exam grades than others...

?

 

[GboroRam]

4 hours ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

 you'd have grown men bursting into tears, right and centre. 

FTFY

[Comrade 86]

38 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

FTFY

ISWYDT 

[Gone]

6 hours ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

So true. Back at the start of the pandemic, all you had to do was suggest that the government were ducking up the works and you'd have grown men bursting into tears, left right and centre. All you could hear for miles around was the sound of dummies and assorted toys hitting the deck. It was hilarious

I know I remember challenging some ideologies on the politics thread, oh the tantrums and I’m offended stance.........ah the good old days ?

[GboroRam]

[Bob Mash]

Interesting to read the comments on this thread. As usual on here, a mix of wind ups, sensible comments and total hogwash. I have been a teacher in a secondary school for 26 years and I find it amusing that people who have not set foot in a school since they were kids are now experts on the education system and in particular, have extensive knowledge of how grades are predicted. In the Academy chain I work for we had to provide 18 months of data to back up our predictions to safeguard against overly optimistic grading. For example a student who was on a grade 4 couldn't suddenly leap up to a grade 6 or 7. Most other schools would do the same. The most likely schools to inflate grades would be the independent fee paying schools as it is generally accepted that the kids there are smarter. 

[Wolfie]

32 minutes ago, Bearwood Ram said:

Interesting to read the comments on this thread. As usual on here, a mix of wind ups, sensible comments and total hogwash. I have been a teacher in a secondary school for 26 years and I find it amusing that people who have not set foot in a school since they were kids are now experts on the education system and in particular, have extensive knowledge of how grades are predicted. In the Academy chain I work for we had to provide 18 months of data to back up our predictions to safeguard against overly optimistic grading. For example a student who was on a grade 4 couldn't suddenly leap up to a grade 6 or 7. Most other schools would do the same. The most likely schools to inflate grades would be the independent fee paying schools as it is generally accepted that the kids there are smarter. 

...and yet we end up with:

"Ofqual said if it had not moderated teachers’ predictions, the proportion of A* and A grades in England would have leapt from 25.2 per cent in 2019 to 37.7 per cent in 2020 – unprecedented grade inflation of 12.5 percentage points".

Nobody is suggesting that a realistic grade 4 would be predicted at 6 or 7 but if enough of the boderline grade 5/6 pupils are given the benefit of the doubt and rounded up to a 6, then it results in figures like the quote above. That's the problem.

 

[Bob Mash]

11 minutes ago, Van Wolfie said:

...and yet we end up with:

"Ofqual said if it had not moderated teachers’ predictions, the proportion of A* and A grades in England would have leapt from 25.2 per cent in 2019 to 37.7 per cent in 2020 – unprecedented grade inflation of 12.5 percentage points".

Nobody is suggesting that a realistic grade 4 would be predicted at 6 or 7 but if enough of the boderline grade 5/6 pupils are given the benefit of the doubt and rounded up to a 6, then it results in figures like the quote above. That's the problem.

 

Im just stating what I know to be true at my place of work. Again, I work in the profession so I thought I'd add a bit of inside information to the thread. 

[Spanish]

4 minutes ago, Bearwood Ram said:

Im just stating what I know to be true at my place of work. Again, I work in the profession so I thought I'd add a bit of inside information to the thread. 

your new here, we don't listen to experts or those with insider knowledge.  Education is close to football in that most of us have not been directly involved in it since we left school, doesn't stop some thinking they know than the rest!  Your insight was interesting thank you

[Spanish]

9 minutes ago, Spanish said:

your new here, we don't listen to experts or those with insider knowledge.  Education is close to football in that most of us have not been directly involved in it since we left school, doesn't stop some thinking they know than the rest!  Your insight was interesting thank you

should have said you're,

sorry @Bearwood Ram don't knock me down another grade

[Bob Mash]

1 minute ago, Spanish said:

should have said you're,

sorry @Bearwood Ram don't knock me down another grade

For rapidly correcting your error and being aware of it, I'll let you off this time! 

[Bob Mash]

13 minutes ago, Spanish said:

your new here, we don't listen to experts or those with insider knowledge.  Education is close to football in that most of us have not been directly involved in it since we left school, doesn't stop some thinking they know than the rest!  Your insight was interesting thank you

Never let facts get in the way of an opinion! If you ever want a good laugh, read the Express or Mail comments online. Complete flat earthers on there! 

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

1 hour ago, Bearwood Ram said:

Interesting to read the comments on this thread. As usual on here, a mix of wind ups, sensible comments and total hogwash. I have been a teacher in a secondary school for 26 years and I find it amusing that people who have not set foot in a school since they were kids are now experts on the education system and in particular, have extensive knowledge of how grades are predicted. In the Academy chain I work for we had to provide 18 months of data to back up our predictions to safeguard against overly optimistic grading. For example a student who was on a grade 4 couldn't suddenly leap up to a grade 6 or 7. Most other schools would do the same. The most likely schools to inflate grades would be the independent fee paying schools as it is generally accepted that the kids there are sometimes smarter.

FTFY

 

[djfred84]

I listen to lbc and they have teachers and a level students phone while i appreciate not totally unbiased they have both left and right presenters on their.

[Wolfie]

1 hour ago, Bearwood Ram said:

Im just stating what I know to be true at my place of work. Again, I work in the profession so I thought I'd add a bit of inside information to the thread. 

Appreciated but please help me out if I'm missing something.

The 12.5% increase in top grades in one year is a fact.

My hypothesis is that this is caused by students being predicted the higher of two grades if they are borderline, so an A/A* pupil might be given an A* and likewise a B/C pupil might be given a B.....etc etc. this would account for the grade inflation.

How do you think the increase has come about?