Animal is a Ram Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I was intrigued as to what was available under 'help-to-buy' (more like help-to-saddle-younguns-with-debt) if only because as a 23-yr-old, I'm the type of person its aiming at. The cheapest available in the Derby area is £165k, for a 3 bed semi-detached in Stenson Fields - http://www.millerhomes.co.uk/developments/east-midlands/keepers-grange-ph3/hawthorne-v1-002.aspx Meaning: 5% deposit = £8k 75% mortgage = £125k 20% gov't loan = £33k This is not what I'd class as affordable housing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 I don't know much about the help to buy scheme - so that's interesting. I'd assumed it was available for all house purchases. Are you saying it is only available on participating new-build schemes? If so then that is indeed crazy. Most people wanting to get on the housing ladder would not head straight for a 3 bed new build... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, StivePesley said: I don't know much about the help to buy scheme - so that's interesting. I'd assumed it was available for all house purchases. Are you saying it is only available on participating new-build schemes? If so then that is indeed crazy. Most people wanting to get on the housing ladder would not head straight for a 3 bed new build... Quote The home you want to buy must be newly built with a price tag of up to £600,000 https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/equity-loan/eligibility/#sthash.ozOvyrGT.dpuf Even the cheapest in the Castleward development in the heart of Derby - something designed to be 'affordable' housing - is starting at the £135k mark for a two-bed apartment. 2 bed semi is £150k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 24 minutes ago, Animal is a Ram said: https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/equity-loan/eligibility/#sthash.ozOvyrGT.dpuf Even the cheapest in the Castleward development in the heart of Derby - something designed to be 'affordable' housing - is starting at the £135k mark for a two-bed apartment. 2 bed semi is £150k. Wow - that looks spectacularly pointless, as all it is doing is encouraging FTBs to get into more debt than is necessary When you can buy a 2 up 2 down Victorian terrace in a (admittedly not always that) nice area for considerably less than £100k why would you use HTB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Just now, StivePesley said: Wow - that looks spectacularly pointless, as all it is doing is encouraging FTBs to get into more debt than is necessary When you can buy a 2 up 2 down Victorian terrace in a (admittedly not always that) nice area for considerably less than £100k why would you use HTB? Exactly that. Plus its an excuse to subsidise new housing projects. Keeps builders in jobs though. From what I understand, its because it nearly guarantees a mortgage from certain lenders. There is also the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme, which is the same thing, but for any house up to £600k. This is ending in December, though. You're right, that's what I want to do - there's plenty in 'decent' areas of Derby for anywhere between £75-100k. Plus then you can put a stamp on the place. I just don't see myself ever being able to do so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneralRam Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 9 hours ago, StivePesley said: Wow - that looks spectacularly pointless, as all it is doing is encouraging FTBs to get into more debt than is necessary When you can buy a 2 up 2 down Victorian terrace in a (admittedly not always that) nice area for considerably less than £100k why would you use HTB? As I'm looking for a place at the minute, I see what I think is a great deal and when you dive deeper they say "This is the help to buy price" and they add 20%. Conning people into thinking it's cheaper because of the scheme. The only way I'd get HTB is if to shield myself a bit more from an incoming crash. As its an equity loan, if your house value goes up you have to pay more back and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 Zag Zig, what do you make to gold and silver at the moment, are you trading it, have any opinion on direction? Gold & silver stocks going absolutely mental at the moment. The level a few chartists I follow were saying to watch was $1237, it consolidated just below for a week or so (I sold half of my gold position expecting it to turn down) and then it pushed above that, this was then supposedly bullish again for another push up (resistance at $1309). I had another buy order on Tuesday for Hocshild Mining (the mid cap gold miner I hold) which I chickened out of thinking we're done, I cancelled before it executed. It is up 16% alone today on top of a huge rise yesterday! Greed is a terrible thing but I am absolutely kicking myself tonight. I wasn't expecting any sort of major action in gold and silver until the **** hits the fan (which it hasn't yet) so even I am puzzled what is behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted March 4, 2016 Share Posted March 4, 2016 You're talking to a proverbial gold bug, so the answer will always be rose tinted. There are several ways of playing that, some may decide to have a fairly fixed position on both, which I often refer to in terms of an insurance policy Have to say though that aside, all the charts and data I follow, led me to believe a pullback was on the cards; chiefly because this is the time to the end of March when you would expect to see seasonal weakness. To that end I've cashed in a few trading positions on individual stocks that had seen 50-100%, remembering these are well below past glories but nothing goes in straight lines forever. Greed is a terrible thing in the stock market, if I kicked myself for the number of times I've not gone with gut instinct I'd be black and blue, but then I've had a few high risk losers, so being cautiious can be the wiser judgement; then again I've had a few winners and always want more. You won't get rich playing it safe in the markets. What's behind it? Expect big players are leveraging in, the threat of the brexit, makes PM'ss look desirable, markets have long looked toppy and gold need I tell you has been down sometime so overdue both a technical bounce I'd say. Short and long term I'm s silver bull more than anything, simply because as you noted the GSR is ridiculous and so appealing. So whether it be stocks, ETF's or even a super risky silver call position, considering that but may hold off for now, I'm strongly watching a few ideas to dive in more on any pullback. All the sites I browse suggest strong physical demand and premiums are quite high in that respect, so more rocket fuel. Still think we may see another down leg soon. Just my musings, no advice intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 On 04/03/2016 at 23:14, Zag zig said: There are several ways of playing that, some may decide to have a fairly fixed position on both, which I often refer to in terms of an insurance policy Have to say though that aside, all the charts and data I follow, led me to believe a pullback was on the cards; chiefly because this is the time to the end of March when you would expect to see seasonal weakness. To that end I've cashed in a few trading positions on individual stocks that had seen 50-100%, remembering these are well below past glories but nothing goes in straight lines forever. Thanks Zag Zig. Gave it some thought and decided to de-risk further in the end and have cashed in 2/3 of my silver shares just now (mostly First Majestic), took a tidy profit after costs from the lot I bought as recently as the 29th. Turning into a trader! Figured I have enough skin in the game still to keep it interesting on the upside but suits me more for the price to come down again and start buying from the lows. I am more comfortable now to watch this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 51 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: Thanks Zag Zig. Gave it some thought and decided to de-risk further in the end and have cashed in 2/3 of my silver shares just now (mostly First Majestic), took a tidy profit after costs from the lot I bought as recently as the 29th. Turning into a trader! Figured I have enough skin in the game still to keep it interesting on the upside but suits me more for the price to come down again and start buying from the lows. I am more comfortable now to watch this one out. Tell you what sort of moves I've made without being specific dipped my toe last week back into Qatar and Brazil economy plays, very tentative Oil long positions besides shorting some property and real estate markets. Just a few ideas against the grain that caught my attention of late. Fairly tight mental stops on them all, albeit I'm not a to the minute, hour or day trader, so usually give trends a chance to build, without sweating small moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 56 minutes ago, Zag zig said: Tell you what sort of moves I've made without being specific dipped my toe last week back into Qatar and Brazil economy plays, very tentative Oil long positions besides shorting some property and real estate markets. Just a few ideas against the grain that caught my attention of late. Fairly tight mental stops on them all, albeit I'm not a to the minute, hour or day trader, so usually give trends a chance to build, without sweating small moves. Interesting moves, absolutely no idea where oil is going at the moment, good luck with it. I am thinking I might just buy dollars with cash now as I don't really want to hold any amount of money in £. Just debating whether I stick more in short euro as I am finally at break even on that trade, I still see parity in the relative near future. Will look into it this weekend. I can see the Fed raising in March (and maybe June as well) which should further strengthen USD (and potentially knock some of the wind out of gold/silver and commodities). I am of the Rickards point of view that the Fed is being wrong-footed by their outdated equilibrium models; the flawed Phillips Curve, NAIRU modelling etc. They'll be tightening into a slowdown without realising it - they'll then revise previous quarter figures down (as they always do to confirm weakness/recession) before reversing course...too late. So, still bullish dollar basically while this game lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 18 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: . I can see the Fed raising in March (and maybe June as well) which should further strengthen USD (and potentially knock some of the wind out of gold/silver and commodities). I am of the Rickards point of view that the Fed is being wrong-footed by their outdated equilibrium models; the flawed Phillips Curve, NAIRU modelling etc. They'll be tightening into a slowdown without realising it - they'll then revise previous quarter figures down (as they always do to confirm weakness/recession) before reversing course...too late. So, still bullish dollar basically while this game lasts. I'd be surprised if there were two rises between now and June. Then again....... I'm often surprised by such things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 On 01/03/2016 at 22:05, SillyBilly said: In other news anyway, ECB likely to go even further negative in March (MINUS 0.4%) and/or expand its asset purchase program by another 10 billion Euro/month. Vote EU for strong financial security folks! Rumours around of going into corporate bond market as may be running out of government debt to buy! German bonds are pricing in for it already: Well as strongly rumoured the ECB have cut their deposit rate by another 0.1% to take it to -0.4%...and increased the monthly bond purchases by €20 billion (not 10!) to go to 80 billion Euro/month! And they have cut their headline minimum bid rate to zero from 0.05%! Euro fate has been sealed today (dead cat bounce IMO), no way would I bet medium term for it not to weaken against all majors. They are pretty desperate on today's showing. I seriously hope I have not sold positions too early and the commercial shorts in gold and silver prove to be right, today was a steroid boost for hard currencies...ffs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 On 07/03/2016 at 22:01, ketteringram said: I'd be surprised if there were two rises between now and June. Then again....... I'm often surprised by such things! 2 would be a push, not impossible though. Interesting how the ECB is going in the opposite direction full steam ahead. Bearish for the euro, short term bullish for the dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: 2 would be a push, not impossible though. Interesting how the ECB is going in the opposite direction full steam ahead. Bearish for the euro, short term bullish for the dollar. Why do you think markets went up on the news today, and then down again on the same news, after digesting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 1 hour ago, ketteringram said: Why do you think markets went up on the news today, and then down again on the same news, after digesting it? Well, firstly I don't believe "markets" actually exist now, certainly not in any sense we'd recognise from a decade ago. If central banks stopped intervening we'd see pretty quickly what a market is. There isn't any true price discovery, it is people taking bets against one another regarding sentiment to monetary policy. In my opinion, I don't think what is left of the market knows what to do now. The markets have reacted very positively to QE and loosening monetary policy up until now (free money to play the markets) but you sense this has to have its limits. The day comes when the market realises that you can't bet forever that ever more desperate economic life support equates to bigger gains.. Anyway, I watch the bond market more than I do the stock market, that is the leading indicator for me. Stocks are a side show to where the problems are. A 10% crash in this bond market will wipe out more wealth and people than a 1930's style crash in the stock market. The major bubble is the bond market and it will be the last to go as the printing press of governments stand behind them! I may be totally wrong but negative yielding debt instruments is a ticking timebomb so far as I am concerned and is the reason why I am long term bullish on precious metals. Bonds are the flight to safety investment. So when they blow, now or in 5 years or whenever, where does that monumental amount of capital flee to? Could even a fraction of it concentrate in a very, very, very, very small market by comparison? Say precious metals. To me, it is a worth a punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malagaram Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Any ideas welcomed,I hold 10.000 shares in Lloyds,today they were down to 68.95,they cost me 60.00,they are now ex div so I have banked that,would you hold on to see if they get to 75p,the magic figure the goverment can sell,or sell now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 1 hour ago, Malagaram said: Any ideas welcomed,I hold 10.000 shares in Lloyds,today they were down to 68.95,they cost me 60.00,they are now ex div so I have banked that,would you hold on to see if they get to 75p,the magic figure the goverment can sell,or sell now Wouldn't be the person to ask, I sold most of my largest individual stock holding this week, up another 8.22% today! Bloody annoying . I'm nt comfortable calling a stock I am not personally invested in. I don't like the banking sector in general at the moment though (contagion from Europe/Italy/Deutsche Bank etc.) and don't hold any bank stocks myself outside of the indices trackers. Although Lloyds would be my pick out of the UK banks if I had to put money in one, 2015 was by all accounts a decent year for them. I don't like Barclays or Standard Chartered and as I am bearish on China I'd rather avoid HSBC for now. Don't follow RBS and never have. I am pleased you have a good dilemma on your hands anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uttoxram75 Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Tried to read this but its hard going for me. The gist of it though seems to be exactly what SillyBilly has been telling us https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1603a.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 On 10/03/2016 at 23:40, uttoxram75 said: Tried to read this but its hard going for me. The gist of it though seems to be exactly what SillyBilly has been telling us https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1603a.htm The BIS warns that QE is causing inequality. Draghi agrees that inequality is a problem. "The crucial question is whether a person can participate fully in the economy over his or her life-time – get a good education, find a job, buy a home for the family. Income and wealth follow. What makes me worry is that increasing inequality might prevent people from doing that. This is an issue all our societies need to look at carefully." Then Draghi announces more QE! And reaffirms he will print whatever it takes to maintain the Euro. The disturbing thing is the BIS, of which Carney, Yellen and Draghi etc. are board members, are publishing report after report (and have been for 2-3 years) saying the experiment is failing (and even warning of civil unrest). This is peoples' lives, this Euro experiment will set Europe back decades when its done, I am convinced they'll bring everything down before they let it fail. Just watch for when the ECB expands into buying corporate bonds, that will be the next marker of desperation. This will be a de-facto bank bailout, protecting the balance sheet of banks, putting a bid under the market and allowing banks to make loans in full knowledge the ECB will put a bid under any junk debt. Crony capitalism - don't allow the banks to go bust, buy their bad assets with free money and impose austerity on the public! As Draghi says, there is no limit to what the ECB will buy (with printed from nowhere money). It is like watching a car crash in slow mo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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