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Five Crucial Home Games, all six pointers


Rampage

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We play five important rivals at home before we play them away. This is a chance to take a grip on the Championship race or adversely to put us on the back foot. What tactics do we need for these matches? What is your points forecast for these five games? How many points would you settle for now?

Aug 18th   Middlesbrough

19th Sept  Burnley

30th Oct   Btrentford

17th Oct   Wolves

3rd Nov    QPR

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We do not want to lose any of these games, especially Boro and Burnley. I would settle for three wins and two draws now but I obviously hope that we can win them all.II think that we will get ten points from these five matches.I suspect that both Boro and Burnley would be the most difficult to peg back if they scored first. These games reinforce the point that we need to be able to defend properly this season. The firepower that we have suggests that we could score in any game but we need to score first wherever possible.

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If we do not get these results right, we will have to get them right when we play them away. my reading of the fixtures is that we have the advantage before Xmas with the home fixtures and have it all to do after that.I would have preferred it the other way round as we have so many new players who need to gel together.

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I know it's just an expression but I've never understood this 6 pointer business.  If we want to be pretty certain of going up automatically then 99 points (to make the maths easy) will do, or at its most extreme 33 wins and 13 losses, all of which could be against other teams in the top 6, home or away.

at this stage we don't know who the challengers will be, or whether we will be one of them - will Brentford suffer without Warburton, Boro without Bamford, Burnley without Shackell, QPR without money? There was one team that thought they were nailed on champions last September, that flirted with relegation.

What's important is that we allow the team, on and off the pitch, to develop without getting on their backs if they lose a few in the first 15/20 games. Watford, Norwich, Bournemouth all had patchy seasons until the run in; Ipswich faded; Wolves were in touch but never quite there.  We fans have a part to play this season and not being over confident this side of Christmas is part of it.

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Games against top rivals are six pointers whenever you play them.The preseason is already a bit too long for me.

Top rivals eh?

There is every chance these sides will have little or no part in the promotion picture for the season. It is ridiculous to even suggest that any game is a 'six pointer' before a ball is kicked.

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As I understand it, a six pointer is simply the difference between winning and losing a game against a close rival that you are trying to catch or stay ahead of. in the Play Final Season, we lost away to Burnley and we finished say eight points adrift. if we had won that game we would have finished two points adrift, all other things being equal. On the last game of the season we would have been in contention for an automatic place, and pressure can be a big factor in results. Simply put if we can win these five games against our closet rivals from last season then a nice little draw away gives us a three point advantage over that team. If we lose at home, we need to beat them away to have three points each out of the two fixtures. if you can get the first game result right then the pressure is less in the return fixture. As it is we play these five home games against very likely promotion rivals..Jim Smith had his predictions of which matches he needed to get the points from sorted before the season started. He had two graphs,expected points and actual points. He did not think, "Let's see where we are at Xmas".

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