nottingram

In danger of getting into Rosenior v Warne territory which I’ve no interest in, but us playing passing football with better players could or should be different to Exeter playing it with the players they can attract with their budget. The way Warne plays (or more extreme versions) could probably elevate a side like Exeter to a higher position in the table but possibly foregoes their chance to put their home grown talent in the shop window as much, as seems to have been their model over the last few years.

You could copy and paste this almost word for word the other way about any number of different posters. It depends on your perspective.

There will always be variations though - the problem is as soon as you add more variables (defensive positioning, height of ball etc) your sample size from which the xG is drawn gets ever smaller, so there is a balance. Internal data within football clubs is likely to be pretty sophisticated though. Your last paragraph shows the pitfalls of using it for individual games. I see sometimes people say it is subjective but if anything the problem is that it is totally objective. A team can score early (ish) and then let the other team rack up low quality chances and they end up “losing” on xG. The reality is they might have been totally in control of the game. The longer term look at that might be that letting that happen every week will probably catch up on you when some of those low quality chances you’re happy to give up fly in to the top corner.

Very good performance

Bird adding the goal contributions that would triple his value, the month after we sell him

God he is awful

This ref desperate to show he’s not swayed by the bigger team

Think I’ve said it before but if it was called something like “chance quality” instead of expected goals then you’d have a lot less people poo-pooing it for whatever reason they do. It’s not the be all and end all but can add context if you want it to. Does make me laugh when people will say it’s meaningless and then happily sit there quoting shots or shots on target.

Genuinely good to know albeit I was merely making a jab about their pathetic insistence on being called Nottingham Forest despite it being factually inaccurate. It is enjoyable that they now play in a tin shed they all pretend to love, that will never ever get extended despite the millions they are pouring into trying, and will refuse to move because they think playing near a river makes them an interesting football club.

Why don’t Nottingham Forest play in Nottingham?

Yeah although we played more of the game with a 4 etc etc I am personally not really fussed what formation we play as I don’t think we look fantastic in either, but I think the reasoning Warne gave after the game for playing 3-5-2 was poor and indicative of his mindset. Shrewsbury are a crap team who barely score goals and we played a 3 for primarily defensive reasons. That’s before you get on to the implication that he felt he needed an extra body back there for that solidity alongside Nelson and Bradley, both of which he signed.

Agree to an extent but I think a key issue we have is off the ball movement and players making themselves available. I think that is largely something that is coached - filling gaps, knowing where to be etc. If the entire “unit” of a side looks bad at one time it’s hard to pinpoint it to individuals in my opinion.

One game closer to this mind numbing season ending

Sometimes it’s unavoidable going 3 at the back though. For instance when Cashin is out and you need to retain defensive solidity against a team who had scored 21 goals in 30 games prior to today.

If we end up in the play off final I’ll make sure I buy a seat in the top tier so the ball is at eye level the majority of the time

Pile on, valid criticism. Tomayto, tomarto.

Didn’t have much sympathy for any of our players for their offsides in the first half, but it was a shame the east stand Lino’s sharp eye deserted him in time for their equaliser

I wonder if one of these days we might try and actually out football one of these crap outfits who turn up to play like this, or whether we will continue to willingly play them at exactly the game they want us to. When you play win at all costs football and don’t win then you should absolutely expect criticism.

Great result against a very good side, well coached by a manager recently sacked by the team 21st in League 2.

They could play him in goal in 90% of games.

It’s a shame Bolton didn’t get through in the EFL Trophy. They have a lot of fixtures to catch up on

Can he play up top?

Bit of both I think. In general there is not a high standard of loans in L1 this year but Warne has also said he is not overly keen on players on their first loans (not saying that’s good or bad), so you’re limiting your market a little straight away. And for the ones that do come to this level, style of play and coaching must be a consideration for the loaning club. If Bolton had come in for Bobby Clark, say, Liverpool might look at Conor Bradley’s development there last year and be more inclined to go for it.

I think if the “restrictions” were particularly prohibitive the club should simply not come out and say they made a very good offer for a striker. That way they can actually blame the “restrictions” without it looking like an excuse for being woefully underprepared and / or deleting every number in their phones except Dejphon Chansiri’s.

I like Collins and he’s having a good season but we’re in a position where our only striker could not get in our team who finished 7th last year with any regularity. Whoever is responsible for this has made a right ricket. He’ll keep working hard as he does but do wonder how much it will play on his mind - he really can’t afford to get knocks or bookings which are both a big risk with the way he plays.