nottingram

Fair play, deserves a lot of credit. Adams obviously a huge game changer, hopefully isn’t tempted to deviate from this set up even if we get a fit Nyambe / Elder / Forsyth unless they rotate in the centre back spots. The wing backs need to be attacking players

What a super referee. Let the game flow and most importantly gave us every single decision.

This Leicester situation must also be worrying for them. Knowing that even when they reach their rightful place in the Championship, the Premier League can still get them with points deductions. Could be the first team in a few years to drop in consecutive seasons if they don’t get it right.

New profile picture confirmed

It’s a shame they haven’t been given a pound for every time one of their players has cried about a referee

What on earth is going on

Do enjoy it when they moan about referees given how they got promoted

Not to over analyse it too much but actually thought it was a good post game interview the other day. A few questions from Dom Dietrich made me squirm (in a good way, from not giving him an easy ride point of view) and Warne could’ve got arsey about them but didn’t. Didn’t really agree with what he said for most of it but would’ve been easy for him to not really engage with some of the questions that challenged him.

I would take games like MK Dons or Portsmouth last season, under Warne, than pretty much any of the dross served up at home this season, and we won neither. But we played attacking football with a plan and created lots of chances. Frustrating games but entertaining. I can probably think of one game this season, Northampton, with a performance that comes close. So we can do it under Warne. The question is why we aren’t. He said it himself yesterday - we’ve not played well all season. He is honest 99% of the time to his credit but how does that reflect on him if he himself knows we are playing poorly and have done all year! It is literally his job for that not to happen!

Dunno, you tell me, you brought him up. Not wrong on McClaren though, wonder where we’d be if Mel hadn’t sacked him the first time and maybe even the second time.

Sibley played LB regularly in a defence last season that barely conceded a chance never mind a goal. But it’s not necessarily about him, can stick anyone who offers any sort of attacking threat there for all I care but breaking up the Nelson and Cashin partnership firstly for 3 at the back and now to shoehorn Bradley in so he doesn’t have to drop his marquee signing again, is crazy. Just no need. The back 4 last night was baffling.

Rosenior is only “oft mentioned” these days by people who want to tell everyone how bad his football apparently was over and over again.

Entire back 4 of centre backs (ish, Nyambe is at best a very defensive full back), with a wing back playing in the front 3, at home to a team who haven’t won in 3 months. Surprise surprise we offer absolutely zero threat from open play. His justification for it after the game completely nonsense and if I was Sibley hearing it I’d be fuming. I seem to remember he started arsing around with a settled back 4 who looked very good last year as well.

Particularly enjoyed him booking a player for time wasting in added time (and also not booking another who had a shot about 5 seconds after the whistle) and then blowing up on 8 minutes exactly. Didn’t really matter of course and actually put us all out our misery, but did make me laugh.

No open play attacking threat from any of the back 4 and a wing back in the front 3. Crazy. Ridiculous Individual errors tonight almost make me feel sympathy for him but not sure I can muster it because you ask for them when you set up like that. Just absolutely nothing from open play which has been par for the course for a few weeks at home. All moot as he’s going nowhere but in a hypothetical world where his contract was up at the end of the season I’d be amazed if anyone would actively believe it should be renewed. Likewise if he walked tomorrow I doubt anyone would be too bothered. I didn’t agree with it but can see why he was hired. A 4 year contract though, just crazy.

Sibley given his customary 60 mins to do something after a good performance before he’s dropped again then.

How many negative opinions do you have to post (on a forum designed for opinions) before you qualify as a Warne hater?

The bottom falling out of the market due to Covid the summer after Sibley, Bird and Knight established themselves was a bit of a killer. As was the Bielik knee injury just as we’d finally learned that our big purchases should have some sort of resale value. There was some bad luck in there amongst the crazy way the club appeared to be run.

The trouble is (and this is a generalisation rather than specific to Stevenage away) but that was a honking team performance and when they crop up, it seems to be him who gets hooked at half time or him who gets dropped the next game. I don’t think he is totally blameless, there must be a reason he is easy to drop and it’s not just Warne but a few managers before him, but he seems to have to do so much more to a) stay on the pitch and then b) retain his place than so many others who are allowed a run of bad games. It worked out on Saturday but ignoring having the benefit of hindsight to know for sure, he only got 10 minutes in a game we literally didn’t have a shot in anger in until the 75th minute.

In danger of getting into Rosenior v Warne territory which I’ve no interest in, but us playing passing football with better players could or should be different to Exeter playing it with the players they can attract with their budget. The way Warne plays (or more extreme versions) could probably elevate a side like Exeter to a higher position in the table but possibly foregoes their chance to put their home grown talent in the shop window as much, as seems to have been their model over the last few years.

You could copy and paste this almost word for word the other way about any number of different posters. It depends on your perspective.

There will always be variations though - the problem is as soon as you add more variables (defensive positioning, height of ball etc) your sample size from which the xG is drawn gets ever smaller, so there is a balance. Internal data within football clubs is likely to be pretty sophisticated though. Your last paragraph shows the pitfalls of using it for individual games. I see sometimes people say it is subjective but if anything the problem is that it is totally objective. A team can score early (ish) and then let the other team rack up low quality chances and they end up “losing” on xG. The reality is they might have been totally in control of the game. The longer term look at that might be that letting that happen every week will probably catch up on you when some of those low quality chances you’re happy to give up fly in to the top corner.

Very good performance

Bird adding the goal contributions that would triple his value, the month after we sell him

God he is awful