Anyone with a spare bit of time...

[Albert]

One last point. Just so I can put the numbers about late goals into context I had a little think about what the numbers meant. So it got me thinking, what percentage of games that we are winning do we draw, losing that we draw or drawing do we win or lose in those vital last 10 minutes of games. The key is being able to get it from what I already had. Now, I'm pretty sure this is right, but its also possible that's I'm made a monumental mistake here, so I'll go go through it below for anyone who is actually interested, but first, the numbers:

Draw from winning: 14%

Draw from losing: 3%

Win from level: 11%

Loss from level: 24%

If correct, those figures are not so good... Its hardly disastrous, I'd hate to see what a team that got relegated would get from this kind of analysis, but it certainly isn't great either.

So, for anyone interested or who thinks I might have made a mistake, I'd ask that you have a look at the logic below just to see if I've made a mistake. If I have, I'd like to know so I can correct this before anyone decides that this is some divine truth:

We want to know the percentage of games that we have gone on to draw from a winning position in the last 10 minutes of a game. We have the number of wins, we have the number of games where the side have given away a lead to draw and we have the number of games that we have won having been level. The key here is what the score was going into the late stages of the game, and as such we should take account of other games where the scores changed in a significant manner. As such:

Draw from win% = Draws from winning positions / (Draws from winning positions + Wins - Wins from level positions)

That is, the total number of winning positions we were in was the number of draws we received from winning positions added to the number of wins minus the number of wins that came from level positions. This logic was then used for the other possible outcomes (i.e. draws from losing positions).

As an added bonus for reading that, or reading the last paragraph in the post: Last season we won 9% of games from drawing positions, lost the same amount, we didn't get a single late equaliser and we only got let a lead slip to draw 6% of the time.

Thanks for reading.

[MrsRam]

Wow Albert - I'm impressed.

Now I'll go and read it again, see if i can understand it. lol.

Joking apart - on first reading, it doesn't look as bad as it feels on a matchday.

[BondJovi]

Is there a won from losing figure? I have just woken up so excuse me if I am missing something.

[Ambitious]

Thanks Albert - eye opening stats there.

I thought we were alright at getting back into the game if we went one down - evidently not 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':blink:' />

[Albert]

Is there a won from losing figure? I have just woken up so excuse me if I am missing something.

During the last 10 minutes of matches we are yet to go from a winning position to a loss or vice versa. On the previous page there are statistics to do with what happened when we scored or conceded first if that is what you were looking for.

[Albert]

Thanks Albert - eye opening stats there.

I thought we were alright at getting back into the game if we went one down - evidently not 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/blink' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':blink:' />

Well, we've gotten a result 23% of the time when we've conceded first, which whilst not great isn't too bad. You're right though, to only get a point 3% of the time when losing in the last 10 minutes, that is quite a worry, especially when we have given up leads 14% of the time, although we had that down to 6% last year.

[alexxxxx]

[url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/8940387.stm]http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/8940387.stm

that was the most frustrating...

[Albert]

Is there a won from losing figure? I have just woken up so excuse me if I am missing something.

I must correct myself on a previous post, we have lost once from a winning position in those vital last 10 minutes. This was discussed in the "Nigel in numbers thread".

[Albert]

As mentioned on the "Nigel in numbers thread", I made an mistake in listing a loss from a winning position as a loss from a level position. The corrections from this are as follows:

Score changes in the last 10 minutes:

Draw from winning: 8

Draw from losing: 2

Win from level: 4

Loss from level: 8

Loss from winning: 1

Or as percentages:

Draw from winning: 14%

Draw from losing: 3%

Win from level: 11%

Loss from level: 22%

Loss from winning: 2%

If anyone find anything that they think is wrong can they please tell me so I can correct any mistake or check if it is indeed right. Thankyou.

[davenportram]

Draw from winning: 14%

Draw from losing: 3%

Win from level: 11%

Loss from level: 22%

Loss from winning: 2%

So from a wining position we win 84% of the time

From a level position we win or draw 78% of the time

From a losing position we lose 97% of the time

To win more games we need to be winning in last 10 minutes more then.

[Albert]

So from a wining position we win 84% of the time

From a level position we win or draw 78% of the time

From a losing position we lose 97% of the time

To win more games we need to be winning in last 10 minutes more then.

From those positions going into the last 10 minutes, yes apparently... Not actually a bad way of looking at it.

I think its important to put a bit more thought into last season though (which begs the question of why I spent so much time on Nigel's overall statistics), in which case:

Going into the last 10 minutes we will:

- from a winning position we won 94% of the time

- from a level position we got a result 91% of the time

- from a losing position we lost 100% of the time

First two look good, last on, not so much.

The other important point though is what happens after the opening goal, in terms of overall record:

In games we scored first we won 66%, and in games we conceded first we lost 77%

As for last season:

Where we scored first, we won 70% and when we conceded first we lost 70%.

The other point of course is the number of points won and lost in those last ten minutes. If I recall correctly, for net gain or loss it has gone:

08/09: -2 (over less than half a season)

09/10: -2

10/11: -12

11/12: -1

Total: -14 (~ -5 a season, 10/11 has a massive effect though, the median is -2)

If we can keep up the improvement in these departments that we saw from 10/11 to 11/12 we'll have a good enough season.