Martyn Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 We're both candidates for several reasons, they barely have a squad, even if they bring in the faces will they gel for the season? could be much like what Jewell did here when he signed 10+ players and they couldn't pass to each other... Agreed! We're up for debate because we're an unknown quantity, we don't know how our young players are going to get on over a season and we severally lack in 'known' quantities, our squad also is short in numbers and in quality a few injuries and an extended bad run, can we drag ourselves out of it like we notoriously struggle to do! We've got virtually the same team as last season??? 64pts and I think we'll do better. Relegation is crazy-talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Taking emotion out of the equation, look at the bookies odds as a good bet where we are expected to finish next season. We are only 5-1 to go down, and they are the best odds, some are as low as 7/2, we may have a good season, but given that our last three we have been up and down like a prostitutes knickers without ever finishing above 12th, the chances are that we are more likely to be in a relegation dogfight than chasing the play offs. Yes we have added to the squad, but the other teams in the league have not excatly been sat there with there head up their arse saying ooo look at Derby, they probably believe they have improved their squad to. Odds on us to finish top midland club.....20-1 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/huh' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':huh:' /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 I wouldn't look at the bookies odds, they seem daft to me but hey ho. I don't think anyone can really argue that we shouldn't be fighting relegation with the others, we've got a young unproven squad on a small budget, the only thing we've got going for us is a established management and a settled squad. We finished 12th last season, and we could certainly do that again, we could also finish in the play-offs, this wouldn't surprise me due to the 'un-proven' squad it may prove to be very good, but also wouldn't surprise me if we were in the bottom 3 for a few reasons. Run a team on a bottom 6 budget and you will generally find yourself in the bottom 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 We are not an unknown quantity this season. We have hardly changed our squad at all. We are a team if unknown names with hardly anybody outside of derby knowing a lot about our players. No household names or superstars - that's why we are short odds for relegation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 We are not an unknown quantity this season. We have hardly changed our squad at all. We are a team if unknown names with hardly anybody outside of derby knowing a lot about our players. No household names or superstars - that's why we are short odds for relegation. Sure the bookies dont know what they are talking about, they dont research Derby the same as say Burnley, Watford or Hull who are all shorter odds than Derby, they dont think that Derby are starting the season with a first choice C/B pairing to the one they started to last season, or the fact that 25% of games played during last season the players wont be at the club anymore. No we are not an unknown quantity, hence why we are one of the favs to get relegated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top 6 finish Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well apart from losing our most consistant goalscorer and our best fit CB,hardly changed at all.Anyway its 3 weeks away from league KO,top 6 finish and family are off for 2 weeks in S Devon.When we return i expect quality additions that will shake the rest of the league to its core.Just to boost my confidence i was in a pub near the station quaffing a delicious pint of Cloughs Pride when isaw a large poster of Paul Mcgrath smiling at me-legend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Sure the bookies dont know what they are talking about, they dont research Derby the same as say Burnley, Watford or Hull who are all shorter odds than Derby, they dont think that Derby are starting the season with a first choice C/B pairing to the one they started to last season, or the fact that 25% of games played during last season the players wont be at the club anymore. No we are not an unknown quantity, hence why we are one of the favs to get relegated. sorry but I cant quite fathom what you have written. The centre back pairing of Shackell and Barke wasn't together that much of last season. As I said in another post we have Buxton/OB and Keogh instead of Anderspon/OB and Shackell as our centre halfs to start the season with. Is that much worse that the defense during probably our strongest bit of last season. add to that we actually have both first choice full backs fit I think we are stating as strong if not stronger at the back than last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Well apart from losing our most consistant goalscorer and our best fit CB,hardly changed at all.Anyway its 3 weeks away from league KO,top 6 finish and family are off for 2 weeks in S Devon.When we return i expect quality additions that will shake the rest of the league to its core.Just to boost my confidence i was in a pub near the station quaffing a delicious pint of Cloughs Pride when isaw a large poster of Paul Mcgrath smiling at me-legend! he hasnt gone yet, and Theo was as consistent last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
top 6 finish Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Theo and consistant - in the same sentence!a first surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 sorry but I cant quite fathom what you have written. The centre back pairing of Shackell and Barke wasn't together that much of last season. As I said in another post we have Buxton/OB and Keogh instead of Anderspon/OB and Shackell as our centre halfs to start the season with. Is that much worse that the defense during probably our strongest bit of last season. add to that we actually have both first choice full backs fit I think we are stating as strong if not stronger at the back than last season You said we havent changed our squad at all, I said we have, 25% of the players are no longer at the club that started games last season. They played 19 games together, neither of them are going to play a game next season, we have also 1 striker less who we have loaned out, its not just about the 11 on the pitch, its whats backing it up and at present we have fewer options and have also stated that we may bring in maybe 1 more but thats probably it. Not sure why you are comparing it to last season though, do you think all the other clubs are not improving there squads at the same time. You can also go to betfair and get 2-1 that we dont finish in the top 12, so if I was you and that convinced that we have moved on I would go and stake a lot of money on it, you would make a fortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 You said we havent changed our squad at all, I said we have, 25% of the players are no longer at the club that started games last season. They played 19 games together, neither of them are going to play a game next season, we have also 1 striker less who we have loaned out, its not just about the 11 on the pitch, its whats backing it up and at present we have fewer options and have also stated that we may bring in maybe 1 more but thats probably it. Not sure why you are comparing it to last season though, do you think all the other clubs are not improving there squads at the same time. You can also go to betfair and get 2-1 that we dont finish in the top 12, so if I was you and that convinced that we have moved on I would go and stake a lot of money on it, you would make a fortune. 19 out of 46 means that for the majority of the season we had Buxton or OB alongside Shackell - now we have Buxton or OB alongisde Keogh is that much worse Ball gone on loan who hardly featured at all. I didint say we hadnt changed our squad at all, i said hardly changed it at all meaning for the main part our squad is no different. 25% of players that started games that season are no longer at the club - how many of those 25% started more than 3 or 4 games? of the main starting players that have left I can think of Shackell and erm.....thats it until/unless Davies goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 19 out of 46 means that for the majority of the season we had Buxton or OB alongside Shackell - now we have Buxton or OB alongisde Keogh is that much worse Ball gone on loan who hardly featured at all. I didint say we hadnt changed our squad at all, i said hardly changed it at all meaning for the main part our squad is no different. 25% of players that started games that season are no longer at the club - how many of those 25% started more than 3 or 4 games? of the main starting players that have left I can think of Shackell and erm.....thats it until/unless Davies goes. Think but can't be certain, caroll, ball, shackell, kilbane, green, Anderson, if I'm right though I'm sure you'll move the goalposts again. Oh and barker, is that 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfb Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Agreed! We've got virtually the same team as last season??? 64pts and I think we'll do better. Relegation is crazy-talk to me. I went to specsavers for my rose tints, where did you go ? 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':D' /> Just banter Martyn, no offence, i hope your right , but i seriously have my doubts,guess time will tell, we'll talk in May.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Think but can't be certain, caroll, ball, shackell, kilbane, green, Anderson, if I'm right though I'm sure you'll move the goalposts again. Oh and barker, is that 7? 7 players but Kilbane was cover for Roberts andleft in January and only started 8 games Anderson hardly played due injury. Started 5 games left in January I forgot Green and Barker played 19 games. Ball started 13 Carroll was a ***** loan losing him hardly impacts on quality of squad or changes that have been made. Of your 7 I'd say only Shackell, Barker and Ball and Green have any impact on quality of the squad. So 4 players from what I would class as last seasons main starting players. Not really a great change to the squad. And who moved goalposts I said "we hardly changed our squad" you said I'd said "we hadn't changed our squad". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 25%, lets just do starts because its easier, so, all the players who have left, won't play or are leaving with games played (subs) [goals]: Shackell - 46 (0) [1] Maguire - 2 (5) [1] Anderson - 5 (3) [0] Noble - 1 (1) [0] Cywka - 3 (5) [1] Riggott - 0 (0) [0] Carroll - 8 (4) [1] Croft - 4 (4) [0] Ball - 11 (12) [3] Kilbane - 7 (2) [1] Green - 25 (1) [1] Priskin - 4 (1) [1] Davies - 20 (6) [12] Bailey - 17 (5) [0] Barker - 19 (1) [0] So we have the following totals (percentage in brackets): Starts: 172 (34%) Subs: 50 (36%*) Goals: 22 (44%) [size=1]*Here subs percentage is calculated against the maximum possible sub appearances. [/size] From this we can see that the original figure of 25% is actually an underestimate. However, why not only consider it for players who improved the side over the course of the season: Shackell - 46 (0) [1] Ball - 11 (12) [3] Green - 25 (1) [1] Davies - 20 (6) [12] Bailey - 17 (5) [0] Barker - 19 (1) [0] This gives us: Starts: 138 (27%) Subs: 25 (18%*) Goals: 17 (34%) [size=1]*Here subs percentage is calculated against the maximum possible sub appearances. [/size] This is very close to the original 25% with the added kicker of the 34% of the goals. Of course, the club already had to improve on the 50 goals this season, and losing 34% worth of players isn't exactly a great start, but hey... The real test for the club this off season of course is whether we can replace those 6 for the season, in both signings and youngsters stepping up as well as bringing in different types of players, like Jacobs. How I've seen it so far: Shackell - Keogh Green - Coutts Davies - To be signed Bailey - Hughes? Barker - *Crickets* Ball - ..? Here having Jacobs not being considered a replacement (or improvement) on any previous player. All the above was for league appearances only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 Its also probably worth pointing out that whilst Green, Barker, Bailey and Davies have all had injury trouble which has limited their impact here at times, our new signings have pretty damn good records: Keogh - Missed one game out of the last 2 seasons Jacobs - Despite making his debut for Northampton at the start of the season before last, he's only missed 5 games Coutts - Played 41 league games last season Compare this to: Barker - Only managed 20 games last season and has only managed ~33 games a season on average with us (will be ~25 by the time he's fit again by the sounds of it) Green - Only managed 27 games last season and only around ~32 on average over his Derby career Davies - Had his "best" season with us last year, racking up a massive 26 appearances, he averages around ~21 a season with us Bailey - Again, only 22 games last season, although that wasn't all down to injury, he still only averages around 29 appearances a season with us, but again, there are a few factors here ...so yeah... ...actually, its worth pointing out that Shaun Barker's injury record was exemplary before he came to Derby, over his 3 seasons with Blackpool he missed 4 games... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 7 players but Kilbane was cover for Roberts andleft in January and only started 8 games Anderson hardly played due injury. Started 5 games left in January I forgot Green and Barker played 19 games. Ball started 13 Carroll was a ***** loan losing him hardly impacts on quality of squad or changes that have been made. Of your 7 I'd say only Shackell, Barker and Ball and Green have any impact on quality of the squad. So 4 players from what I would class as last seasons main starting players. Not really a great change to the squad. And who moved goalposts I said "we hardly changed our squad" you said I'd said "we hadn't changed out squad". Don't really matter what impact they had or didn't, the point is that last season we finished 12th, this season we have got a much smaller squad to call upon, hardly changing the squad means that we have the same players and the same number available, that's simply not the case, did croft, maguire, riggot and Anderson for example not get squad numbers? Are you now saying the squad are only the people that played over a certain amount of games, that's what I was talking about moving the goalposts. We will get injuries this season, if Roberts gets injured who will cover? If theo or sdavies get injured the person who we bring in will have scored how many goals, all of this adds up to why we are more likely to finish nearer to the bottom than top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 They did get squad numbers but when they were out on loan, injured or left the club half way through the season like those you name above were they of any use or providing anything to DCFC at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 By the one you named I meant Maguire, Croft, Anderson,Riggott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 27, 2012 Share Posted July 27, 2012 They did get squad numbers but when they were out on loan, injured or left the club half way through the season like those you name above were they of any use or providing anything to DCFC at all? Yes at the start of the season they were in cloughs plans, or did he bring them in just to make the numbers up? What's to say that we won't get injuries or shift players out this year, or clough doesn't like their work rate ? And just to clarify are you saying the squad still didn't change much ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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