ariotofmyown Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 My 95 year old nan got her first vaccination on 21st Dec. Won't be long until her and her crew are out on the town again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 10 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: Johnson any his cronies haven't even bothered consulting the back benchers before many of their ill fated decisions and announcements. If given the opportunity, back benchers and opposition MPs might have at least come up with ideas like "sack Cummings to avoid losing public trust", "don't ship people from hospitals into care homes without testing", "don't brag about shaking hands with covid patients when bodies are piling up in Italy", "don't tell people the app is world beating and crucial to getting out of lockdown, then launch it 3 months after lockdown ended and another one is needed", "don't slag off your political rivals for agreeing with Sage, then almost straight away do what they were saying anyway", "speak regularly to devolved nations and main cities and don't keep making centralised decisions without consulting them", "ignore your elitist background and stop treating the masses like fools by feeding them false hope to make yourself look popular" etc etc And other than the care home fiasco none of them points have absolutely any bearing on the situation, its just a political rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: And other than the care home fiasco none of them points have absolutely any bearing on the situation, its just a political rant. Yeah, shocking and confused messages that stops people following advice really has no bearing! No other PM in my memory would have done anywhere near as bad as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 16 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: Yeah, shocking and confused messages that stops people following advice really has no bearing! No other PM in my memory would have done anywhere near as bad as this one. Who has stopped following advice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Who has stopped following advice? Cummings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark of Ayrshire Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 59 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: And other than the care home fiasco none of them points have absolutely any bearing on the situation, its just a political rant. Tens of thousands of people dying is more than a fiasco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marriot Ram99 Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Angry Ram said: I’m making a bolt to the country. I really don’t know what the answer is for London.. Close it down? Disastrous Keep it open? Disastrous The country needs a strong capital. Personally would keep it open but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 19 minutes ago, Mark of Ayrshire said: Tens of thousands of people dying is more than a fiasco Agree its an outrage to be fair. Regularly happens during flu season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark of Ayrshire Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Agree its an outrage to be fair. Regularly happens during flu season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark of Ayrshire Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Mark of Ayrshire said: 8 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Agree its an outrage to be fair. Regularly happens during flu season though. Absolutely disgusting, outrage isn’t cutting the gravity of what has happened in care homes this year unfortunately. To try and then flippantly give it the old flu routine is really poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said: Agree its an outrage to be fair. Regularly happens during flu season though. As noted on here numerous times before, there is nothing normal about the number of deaths this year. The ONS did a report on this which dealt with data up to the end of August. There has been 28,119 deaths since the end of the period covered by that report, this is more than double the number of pneumonia and flu deaths combined during the period that the report covered. That's more than all the flu and pneumonia deaths in the UK for 2019 only since the start of September. This doesn't regularly happen at all, it's unprecedented in modern Britain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Albert said: As noted on here numerous times before, there is nothing normal about the number of deaths this year. The ONS did a report on this which dealt with data up to the end of August. There has been 28,119 deaths since the end of the period covered by that report, this is more than double the number of pneumonia and flu deaths combined during the period that the report covered. That's more than all the flu and pneumonia deaths in the UK for 2019 only since the start of September. This doesn't regularly happen at all, it's unprecedented in modern Britain. In terms of excess deaths for this part of the year, we're not really much above normal are we? I know in the first wave we were way above it, but seemingly this time of year isn't that abnormal in terms of overall deaths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Andicis said: In terms of excess deaths for this part of the year, we're not really much above normal are we? I know in the first wave we were way above it, but seemingly this time of year isn't that abnormal in terms of overall deaths? When compared with the 5 week average: 15% over for the week ending 4 December 2020, representing 1,608 extra deaths. 20.3% over for the week ending 27 November 2020, representing 2,099 extra deaths. 20.8% over for the week ending 20 November 2020, representing 2,155 extra deaths. 18.4% over the week ending 13 November 2020, representing 1,904 extra deaths. etc. No, there are considerable numbers of excess deaths. Covid-19 has been accounting for around a fifth of all deaths in the UK over this period of time. Edit: It's also worth noting that while deaths have stabilised for the time being, they're not going down, and new case numbers are rising again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Just now, Albert said: No, there are considerable numbers of excess deaths. Covid-19 has been accounting for around a fifth of all deaths in the UK over this period of time. When you consider a huge proportion of covid cases have been caught in hospitals in already sick and injured people, could it be that this is skewing the numbers and that covid isn't actually the driving factor in a number of these cases but is listed on the death certificate irrespective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Andicis said: When you consider a huge proportion of covid cases have been caught in hospitals in already sick and injured people, could it be that this is skewing the numbers and that covid isn't actually the driving factor in a number of these cases but is listed on the death certificate irrespective? Source that a 'huge proportion of Covid cases have been caught in hospitals'? Also, no, the number of excess deaths demonstrates incontrovertibly that this is well beyond sick people just happening to catch it. As discussed on here earlier in the year, given the people who have been confirmed as cases, and standard death figures, the number of deaths is orders of magnitude greater than you'd expect from the 'dying with Covid' line. We can run a really simple calculation as a logic check. This is in no way exact, but gives an order of magnitude look at the problem. Around 500k people die in the UK each year, from a population of 66.65 million. We can scale this to say that in a 28 day period, the chance of any given person dying, averaged across the population, is 0.0575%. The definition officially used is deaths within 28 days of a positive result, so we can have a look at what fraction of the 1,977,167 confirmed cases would be expected to die, with this being 1,137; the actual death toll is 66,541. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andicis Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Albert said: Source that a 'huge proportion of Covid cases have been caught in hospitals'? https://www.hsj.co.uk/patient-safety/covid-infections-caught-in-hospital-rise-by-a-third-in-one-week/7029211.article https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-ongoing-problem-of-hospital-acquired-infections-across-the-uk/ https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-09/how-many-covid-infections-are-acquired-in-hospitals-this-is-what-the-data-shows It's consistently roughly 1 in 5 of cases are caught in hospitals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 This doesn't sound good, although fortunately no evidence that the vaccination won't work against this new strain. I don't think we really want to contemplate that being the case. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, Andicis said: https://www.hsj.co.uk/patient-safety/covid-infections-caught-in-hospital-rise-by-a-third-in-one-week/7029211.article https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-ongoing-problem-of-hospital-acquired-infections-across-the-uk/ https://www.itv.com/news/2020-11-09/how-many-covid-infections-are-acquired-in-hospitals-this-is-what-the-data-shows It's consistently roughly 1 in 5 of cases are caught in hospitals. Fair enough, thanks for that. Seems we both agree that 1 in 5 is a huge proportion then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 I hadn't seen the big spike in cases over the last couple of days. With hospital numbers already close to the 1st wave levels, they are probably going to be under huge pressure soon. Hopefully the high infections are due to a higher proportion of younger people tested, students perhaps? You can see another big lockdown happening imminently, one more like the first perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: I hadn't seen the big spike in cases over the last couple of days. With hospital numbers already close to the 1st wave levels, they are probably going to be under huge pressure soon. Hopefully the high infections are due to a higher proportion of younger people tested, students perhaps? You can see another big lockdown happening imminently, one more like the first perhaps. It's getting worrying at this point. Taking into account patients leaving hospital, the trend at the moment is about 330 new patients per day, and the new admission are on the rise. Even assuming that it remains constant though, it's not going to be long before the first wave is eclipsed. The last release of data put the figure at 18,469 on the 16th, while the absolute peak was 21,683 on the 12th of April. The current trend would put the day that this wave sees more people in hospital is on either Christmas day or Boxing day. Mechanical ventilation beds is a bit more positive, with this second wave being no where near that first wave yet. That said, occupation of beds is still on the rise after dipped due to the most recent lockdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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