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kevinhectoring

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Posts posted by kevinhectoring

  1. 1 hour ago, AutoWindscreens said:

    I don't think that is quite right. The business plan is also a way to make sure that clubs don't get an unfair advantage from administration. Imagine a rich new owner takes over a club, buying them out of administration for a low price that pays creditors only 25p in the pound. Not many would think it fair if he then spent £50 million on new players - when he could, if he wanted, have used that £50m to pay creditors more of what they were owed. I think that's a key reason why EFL business plans last longer than a year.

    I see the logic of course. But the extract from the club’s statement below re business plan suggests the EFl uses it primarily to ensure prudence and stability. And the mere fact it can be relaxed supports this 

    “We will continue to be under a business plan next season, which will obviously be divisional specific, however it will be one that we propose to the EFL and will be reviewed collectively in order that we can demonstrate that we are not being over-ambitious, which we aren’t being – we will be continuing to build in a progressive and sensible manner.”

  2. 5 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

    Right about what? I’m not looking to be right about anything.

    You’re arguing rather a lot for someone who isn’t looking to be right.
     

    Some more facts: 


    - We were told in the summer the EFL restrictions were significantly relaxed. Don’t believe we had details.

    - Warne also made it clear in the summer that the owners wanted a large part of transfer receipts applied to cover operating losses    

    - there’s been no change in the ownership structure since the summer that I know of so no reason to expect change on approach. Warne told us re Jan he did not expect an ‘amazing window’ which certainly suggests Jan will be like the summer. Seems he’s true to his word so far. 

    - the EFL business plan isn’t designed as a punishment. They punish through points deductions etc. The business plan is intended primarily to ensure there’s not a repeat of the insolvency. So if the insolvency is followed by a change of ownership and EFl is comfortable with the new owner, it’s likely that departures from our (relaxed) business plan that are prudently funded will be permitted 
     

    You indicate the club is funded from DC’s ‘personal fortune’. I think that’s a misunderstanding of the current ownership structure and that’s not a good starting point to understand the owner’s likely ambition for capital expenditure. 
     

    You’ve suggested all will change next season when we’re out of restrictions.  If that is your prediction, I don’t think the facts support it. 
     

    This is a matter of real interest to the fans, because we want to know what our chances are of getting out of this division; and we want to know how we might fare in the championship when we do get promotion. I’ve said elsewhere I don’t think DC is the right long term owner for us. That is also a matter of real interest to the fans 
     

    Don’t forget, I have respectfully told you a few times that you might (might) be right. But I don’t think the facts support your position. 

  3. 5 hours ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

    I’m not saying anything of the sort, again it’s speculation on your part, I’ve never seen Succession, but heard it’s good. 
    I am saying the club has set itself a budget within an approved business plan, and more than likely has to stick to that budget. As such we as fans may need to accept that we’re not yet at the point of spending heavily on signings (essentially the same conclusion you’re coming to but without promoting a speculative theory at David Clowes’ willingness or ability to invest further). The sooner fans accept those lower (and maybe more disappointing expectations) the easier it is to not feel anxious about the whole thing.

    You’re the one who keeps bringing David Clowes personal fortune, his willingness to invest it, and how his extended family may feel about it, into the conversation without any direct quotes or evidence to back it up. My point is that it doesn’t serve anyone or anything well to speculate on such things, however if you want to continue doing so that’s your right. I’m just looking to present a slightly more calm and rationale outlook on it than telling everyone Clowes can’t and won’t spend any money cause his family probably don’t want him to

     

    If it was his personal fortune, it would be  more likely that you’re right about this.  

  4. 1 minute ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

    Like I said, speculation, not fact based 

    That’s most unfair. My post is littered with facts. You simply want to deny the conclusion they point to  
     

    Are you seriously saying Clowes will be driven by his motives as a fan to support the club financially; instead of his duties to his family and his duties as a trustee? You’ve been watching too much of Succession  

  5. 22 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

    There are several scenarios you post about that seem wrapped up in speculation, Clowes family won’t let him spend so he needs to find investment seems to be the biggest one. What actual evidence is there to back this stance up? 
    We know from the wide reporting of it that we are subject to a business plan, drawn up by the club and approved by the EFL for 2 years post admin.
    We know from what Warne has said across multiple interviews that he has a budget to use (one that Clowes believes is competitive enough to challenge for promotion, based on an interview he gave, with the caveat that nothing is guaranteed). Warne has explained a couple of times now that in a choice of paying wages out for a (perceived) good player on a free was believed to be more cost effective that using the budget on transfer fees and wages, meaning the budget will go further with our current approach (hindsight on one or two of them suggests otherwise of course).

     
    Without visibility of the accounts, or inside knowledge of Clowes’ children’s view on their inheritance, I’m prone to lean into the logic based conclusion that the budget we have is decent but limited and I accept that present reality. We cannot currently throw money around without refrain, there has to be some consideration and limit to what is spent and how, and that’s just how things are for the club at this present moment, that’s how I see it anyway. 

    Two things. 

    1 my recollection is that in the summer Warne actually made it clear that the owner’s concerns about operating losses was the main break on spending. It was in answer to a question about recycling proceeds of Knight’s departure

    2 DC is now the generation of the family who are custodians of the silver spoons. He will be acutely aware that he guards them for beneficiaries who are minors and even for beneficiaries who are not yet born. DC (he is an honourable man) will I believe feel a strong duty to limit the capital he pours into the club. (And there will doubtless have been family members who were highly sceptical about the wisdom of buying the club in the first place, and they will surely have been asked for their views.) Interesting in this context to note he originally bought the stadium only, for a good price. He told us one driver for buying the club was to protect the value of the stadium 

  6. 58 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

    Or….and hear me out on this one…. We are still subject to the business plan which was presented to the EFL for approval and probably doesn’t have the greatest amount of wiggle room until the end of the 2024 season.

    The club went into administration, came close to extinction, was saved and as part of that recovery process has to be ran sensibly, according to what is likely to be a conservative business plan that safeguards the club against reckless spending. There’ll be a budget, wages, fees, agents costs etc, and we’ll have to stick to it as the club said they would. 

    Possible of course. But Warne’s longer interviews from the summer about transfers support a different view. He’s been told not to go into detail on this now - listen to the post Bradford RD interview carefully and he fades away mid sentence when he begins to explain our spending issues vis a vis other clubs. Not sure references to the business plan would be surprised in the same way. Inheritance issues involving wealthy families are hard fought and imo there’s likely to be a clear understanding as to precisely how much capital will be available. I would be surprised if post 2024  this were to change. But let’s see ..
     

  7. 4 minutes ago, Eoghan1884 said:

    Warne did alude to having to let players go before getting the players he wants in. Warne said

    “to get these (his top targets) in, you might have to let two of them (current players) go” 

    Also talked about having to know the players going out are definitely going before getting trying to finalise deals. So could be all deals done in the last week of the window. 

    Correct. And he said the same in the summer. We pay good wages, funded from good gate receipts. But capital sums for new talent are a different thing. I’d think DC has agreed with the family how much more can be poured into our hungry club. It may be nothing 

  8. 1 hour ago, TomTom92 said:

    Comparing to last season which is what @Caerphilly Ram has done it’s impossible to disagree. 
     
    Would I rather watch Didzy than Collins? Yes, would I rather us still have Didzy? Yes. But on output compared to last season we’re doing better.

    But it’s a far worse div. And otherwise we’ve got a better squad. Can’t compare stats to last year you can only compare to an imagined ‘counterfactual’. In my imaginings we have Didzy sitting behind Collins and Sibley, sprinkling passes to them like magic dust, Sibley behaving like he’s playing against Oxford and Milwall combined… We’ve cut Portsmouth adrift, Bird and Cashin are looking forward to the Championship and David Tepper has just visited David Clowes. In your world we just lost to Bradford 

  9. On 10/01/2024 at 17:53, Barney1991 said:

    Love clowes for saving the club but obvious to see he’s repaired a broken car with elastic bands doesn’t have the money to run derby long term or at least spend anything. Never going to be a weaker league 1 or a better opportunity for to get promoted. I’m not saying spend millions on transfers but couple hundred thousand on players shouldn’t be out of our remit 

    Not the message people want to hear but I think what you say is right. And if we do get promotion, I’m guessing life in the championship would be no better. If not worse …  

  10. 1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

    Forsyth's injury is "quite severe" - I would guess at him being back towards the end of Feb.

    That’s really bad news. The guy is 35 and a big unit - if he’s back the end of Feb then he’s not really back until April and he’s out of touch. We’re then reliant on Bradley and from what we’ve seen so far he’s half the player. 
    If we’re to get the best out of these older players they need to play enough to keep in good touch, but not so much that they break down. You said rightly that NML is fitter this season. But he’s getting too many minutes and is being pushed too hard. He’ll hit a wall and either lose form (already happening) or worse. 
    Warne needs to give more thought to this. We saw from Curtis Davis end of last season how badly it can go wrong

  11. 3 hours ago, BathRam72 said:

    Isn't it obvious? If the ball is in the air, the players have to jump. That causes damage in the push off and landing.

    I am surprised it isn't un playable after the last couple of games.

    Cashin is the worst he’s constantly jumping around heading the football.  And he’s not exactly a featherweight. They should dock his pay no way that’s fair wear and tear 

  12. On 10/01/2024 at 08:54, jimtastic56 said:

    Some saying Fozzie has a calf injury

    We have no respect for the elderly in this country. He’s probably the most experienced defender in the division, and yet we have him running up and down the left touchline like an excitable 20 year old linesman, just waiting for a serious soft tissue injury to take him out for the rest of his playing career. When he comes back his role in the team needs to reflect his strengths and his vulnerabilities 

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