MadAmster

Depending on the extent of any action from FA/PL Wolves, Everton or the Red Dogs could still take the record...

RAMSTV 1Wildsmith 6.5 2Wilson 6.5 35Nelson 7 6Cashin 7 23Ward 6 20Elder 7.5 8Bird 7.5 32Adams 7.5 17Sibley 7 4Hourihane 5.5 12Smith 5.5 11Méndez-Laing 7 5Bradley 7 9Collins 5 27Blackett-Taylor 3 Not an auspicious start to his Rams career but I'm not writing him off. Does he need a rest from playing to get fit? 7Barkhuizen 7

Set the side up to surrender possession and hit them on the break. Worked a treat. My word for the display is competent. Nothing flash, not commanding, simply competent all round. Bird and NML a goal and an assist each plus a goal from Barks was sufficient for all 3 points. Clean sheet is always welcome. The stats show Exeter had 2 shots on target. Both were from long range free kicks and straight into JW's hand. Having said that, they created 3 or 4 chances where they shot wide/over that they will be kicking themselves for being so wasteful. 1st half they tried to get the ball over our back line at speed, their 2 best chances saw poor control stifle their best one and the other time they beat the back line, their player was offside. A more ruthless opponent may well have scored. 0-3 away win from 30% possession, a thoroughly competent and professional performance but we shouldn't forget that they did have chances, chances another opponent would put away. Feet on the ground, we're not there yet. CBT. Not worrying yet about the lad although he has shown little in his appearances thus far. Totally unsuccessful in anything he did last night and replaced at HT, apparently suffering from a tight hamstring. I really hope he started the game (or picked it up very early) with an iffy hammy as that would explain, in part, the poor play. He has a good game in him. Maybe he needs a couple of weeks of relative rest to get fit? Too early to write him off, way too early. The ref? What had to happen for us to get a free kick? He refused to give us a shedload of serious fouls yet, later on, gave us a couple that, to me, weren't fouls. A case in point, Adams ushers the ball out, 2nd half and he's already on a yellow, and he gets pulled over by an Exeter player. ref calls both players over for a "chat". He had been so inconsistent all game I feared he was going to card both players which would have seen Adams off. I am still at a loss as to why he felt the need to have a chat with either player. Nothing untoward happened other than a foul which deserved to be given as such and no more. The foul wasn't given. Quite possibly the worst ref we've had this season. IMO. Both Bolton and Pompey won last night and it's starting to look like the top 3 might be slowly pulling away and making it a 3 horse race. We play both the Trotters and Pompey, win both games and we're a step closer to the promised land. 14 games to go and we play 4 of the top 7, starting with Stevenage on Saturday. I'll be there with 'er indoors. COYR!!

Imagine the comments if we tried playing the way we did last night at Pride Park... Imagine the confusion if the oppo were also set up to concede possession and hit on the break 🙂

The last sentence of my post to which you replied reads... In the interest of balance, there were other games where the side with the best xG won. The problem with xG is that the various sources use different statistical models and their own algorithms, hence the variance in the figures. Same goes for shots/SOT. The BBC stats are often different to those of DCFC or Sporting Life or "insert newspaper name of your choice". I've not looked up last night's xG stats but I think our 3 goals wouldn't score well under xG but Collo's early, saved strike would. Conversely, they created a few chances inside our box but either mis-controlled or shot wide/over and those missed chances would probably attract a better xG than our actual goals. The old adage of there are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics is as true as it ever was. Same with opinion polls, questions get formulated in order to virtually guarantee producing the required outcome. Whatever any stats say about last night's game, the fact of the matter is that we set out with a game plan, executed it very well and won 3-0. I expect Stevenage to play similarly and to be very physical at Pride Park on Saturday and I hope we don't succumb to this type of game which is one we, historically, haven't been consistent in combatting.

Some interesting and varying views on stats and their worth. xG is calculated by several different companies/organisations, each with their own model and each with their own algorithms. They come up with different xG figures. As do those who "calculate" the number of shots and SOT. How do they handle blocked shots? How far does a shot have to travel (or how close to the goal line does it have to get) in order to be registered as a shot/SOT? As with the models and algorithms for xG, I have no idea what, in the minds of those various organisations who do such calculations, constitutes a shot so it's difficult to reconcile any of those stats with what I saw. At the end of the day, there is but 1 stat (or does it count as 2 stats?) that counts and that's goals scored (for/against which could be seen a 2 stats).

As an old school type, I obviously go for hype. Is it a more valuable stat than shots, shots on target? I don't think it is. Here's some examples from last weekend Luton 1.75 Sheff U 1.56. The result was 1-3 Villa 2.45 Utd 1.9. The result was 1-2 Red Dogs 1.25 Toon 0.68. The result was 2-3 Fulham 1.75 B'mouth 2.61. The result was 3-1 Shots/shots on were Luton 20/5 Sheff U 7/3. Villa 23/10 Utd 17/5. Red Dogs 13/3 Toon 7/5. Fulham 7/6 B'mouth 25/4. Look at xG and, in all 4 cases the team with the better xG lost. Look at shots and the team with the most shots lost. Shots on target sees Luton and Villa losing despite more SOT and then Toon and Fulham having more SOT and winning. IMO xG is no better a stat than shots/SOT. In the end, it all comes down to creating chances, making the decision to shoot and then whether it's off target, on target but saved/blocked or on target and in. In the interest of balance, there were other games where the side with the best xG won.

Teams do appear to switch off, like we did in the 88th minute last weekend. Many free kicks/throws aren't taken quickly because the opposition stands right in front of the ball or wanders off with it or kicks it away, preventing a quick take. The instructions issued to refs at the start of the season included stamping down on this. It hasn't happened. It should have.

What I don't get is his, apparent, aversion to going through the middle now and again. 1. It's a valid tactic and teams don't like players bombing at them through the middle 2. Permanently going wide is too predictable as a player will almost always go outside on one wing and cut inside when playing the "inverted" winger role

Rowett. Guaranteed to polarise thoughts. I didn't like the football he served up, despite it being reasonably successful. Much the same as I was with Paul Clement. Clement went when results became as bad as the football. Rowett never got that far. None of us will really know why he went but... the commonest "reason/rumour" is MM told him there was no money for incoming transfers which was why he decided he'd be better off elsewhere. In came Lampard... Waggy £5M, Marriott undisclosed, Florian Jozefzoon £2.75M, Wilson undisclosed loan fee, Holmes for a reported £700K, Cole no fee but wages won't have been cheap, Tomori undisclosed loan fee, Andy King undisclosed loan fee, Evans for a reported £1M, Malone undisclosed fee, Mount undisclosed loan fee. So, there was money there, possibly just not for Rowett. One thing is certain, there;s little chance we'd have had Wilson, Tomori or Mount if GR had still been manager. I think we would have still seen "safety first" football but we'll never know if he could have improved on his 17/18 finish.

1-1 own goal

As you will know I manage between 6 and 8 games a season, watching the rest here in NL via my RamsTV "season ticket". Friday to Sunday for a game including flights and hotel etc is around £500. The Stevenage game will be #4 or #5 this season thus far. Already booked for a 6 day stay for the Reading and Bolton games in March and coming back for the Carlisle game in April as well. Damned expensive hobby being a Ram. I'd do more games but finances get in the way. Why do we do it? For me it's many facetted. Seeing old friends (and making new ones) and family in Burton and Derby. Getting to drink real ale instead of lager. A change of scenery and last but by no means least... once a Ram, always a Ram. It's deep inside us and we are addicts, pretty much in the same vein as Del Boy telling Rodders "this time next year...". Seriously, how do you break a habit of, in my case, 63 years and counting?

... forgot to add that when the corner ball entered the penalty area I was thinking "yet another poor one" and then Max buried it 😉

RAMSTV 1Wildsmith 6 24Nyambe 6.5 2Wilson 5 5Bradley 5 35Nelson 6.5 23Ward 5 7Barkhuizen 5 32Adams 7 16Thompson 5.5 4Hourihane 4.5 8Bird 7 17Sibley 6 20Elder 6 11Méndez-Laing 7 9Collins 6

Hopefully we never fall asleep at late throws by the opposition. We get the injured players back. We stop letting the oppo "get into us..." and we remember that it's also permissible to attack through the middle and stop being so predictable down the wings. We stop pussy footing around at the back. So often we played passes among the back line that so nearly went to an opponent. Unnecessarily risky, IMO. 2nd time we've struggled this season against the Shrews "in your face" tactics. We'll get more of the same next weekend against Stevenage. Didn't deal with it there, I just hope we do come Saturday as I'm over for that game.

Not a "don't forget we nearly didn't have a club" thought but... the current manager and his predecessor have put together a squad with very little funding that has us in with a shout of going up via the autos. Very commendable when you think of the millions spaffed up the wall by previous managers on player fees and wages for players who were absolute dross. managers who then found themselves overnight millionaires thanks to the compo they got on being sacked. Our starting shape played into Shrews' hands. Shape was changed after 35 minutes of an absolutely awful first half of football from both sides. 0-0 was the best either side could hope for at that juncture. 2nd half was better but we have to remember that it would have been difficult to be that bad again. When Bird put the ball away for the 1-0, it was deserved as we were the better side. They then got back into it without ever looking like worrying Wildsmith. Then came that equaliser. 88th minute throw in, in the corner, we fell asleep. Collo was beaten way too easily, Wilson was out of position and couldn't get back to worry their man in possession, pass to Pierre some 12 yards out where he was totally unmarked and his shot gave JW no chance. It was their first real shot on target, the previous one had been a gentle lob into JW's arms. They did have another shot after their goal which JW saved well. Then we created a chance up the other end but Nelson's downwards header bounced up onto the bar instead of into the net. Shrews came with the game plan I expected and executed it well, restricting us to just 8 shots with 3 on target to their 7 and 3. We need, IMO, to look at some of our pushing and pulling in the oppo's area. Their keeper made that double save from Barks but, had one of the 2 attempts gone in, the goal would have been disallowed for Collo having pushed a defender over. Why do we do things that give refs the choice? Don't commit fouls in the opponent's box... or our own for that matter. Ref? less than average. Let too much go, IMO. I wouldn't have complained if his (lack of) decision making had been spread evenly but we seemed to be on the wrong end of 2/3 of his Law interpretations. First half saw one of his Assistants pull us up 8 or 9 times for offside. I'm not convinced they were all correct decisions. It is, however, something our attacking players need to be more aware of and, hopefully, cut out of our play. Especially Collo who seems to wander back slowly and then get caught offside when he challenges for the ball despite having been well offside when the ball was played.

You may be right but..... he'd then find himself, especially in L2, in an even more physical contest and his history points to him not having the physical makeup to stay fit. Back at Derby? At best a pay as you play deal.

With regard to 2) above, might the threat of 10 minutes in the bin see many offences no longer committed? 1) ? hammer them for time wasting by handing out more cards and the accompanying sin bin. We'd see much less "taking one for the team" and "professional fouls"

How about... forget the blue card, simply make a yellow card a 10 minute sin bin punishment. The "wronged" team would be the ones who gain any benefit as opposed to some other team not having to face the offender a few weeks and more yellow cards later.

At first sight you could be right but, considering his history, I would hope that the club was wise enough to have contingency plans for this happening added to the loan deal. With regard to JJ's future, I feel for the lad. IMO he won't get an offer from the Gunners. I can't see (or genuinely hope we don't) Derby taking a punt unless it's a pay as you play deal but even that looks a huge risk. This could be end of career for him.

No. Straight up genuine fact.

Another nomination for Collo - and your votes can crown him winner of the PFA Fans' Player of the Month! Vote for him here thepfa.com/fpotm/league-one

Isn't CBT also a doubt?

On loan till the end of the season when his move becomes permanent I believe val.

Having Adams will allow both Conor and Max to do more "expansive" stuff. That, IMO, was also the reasoning behind the Fornah transfer but after a promising start Fornah appears less of a player than we first thought. Hopefully he can regain his mojo. Having him and Adams fighting for the Seth role could be awesome. Especially if Fapetu continues to develop... Conversely, this apparent news of CH possibly leaving in the summer means we'll have to replace both him and Max Bird. Is Robinson ready? MF 3 of Adams, Robbo and Fapetu.. or would having 2 young uns in there not be the best idea?