World of crypto

[Comrade 86]

BTC down £4.5K since I urged caution a week back, £2.5k over the following 7 days and another £2k today. I think it's likely approaching a new support level, but irrespective of whether it does or not, had anyone considering buying BTC this time last week waited, as I suggested they should (see below), they would already be able to buy 8% more coins than had they not. Some might consider that insignificant, but I certainly don't! 

As it is, the next 24 to 48 hours now seems quite critical. If you'd bought at £7k to £15K you'd obviously not be panicking yet, but new investors who bought at the recent highs will definitely be getting a tad twitchy and that could exacerbate the downslide. A studious watching brief is advised!

FWIW, I'll be diving back onboard at some point as to my mind this is simply balancing and needs to happen before we see another proper bear run. Institutional investors now stand to lose too much, especially those with leveraged positions and they will have to step in at some point. For my part, I still fully believe in BTC as a project and an investment, but I do feel that comments that were questioned or disregarded, have now been vindicated.

Lets examine some facts vs opinions: a 5 coin stash if sold last Tuesday would have netted @£263,000.00. The same amount of coins would cost a whopping £24,000.00 less at time of writing. More to the point, reinvested, the same buyer would now have over 5.5 coins in his or her wallet without investing a single penny of additional savings. That's half a coin, or @£24k for a week's 'work' and all achieved in a bearish market. Seems like nice apples to me  🫢 

On 16/06/2024 at 11:00, Comrade 86 said:

In other news, I've just dumped my entire holding @ £52k and change. I 'd explain why, but you wouldn't listen to a word of it so instead I'll just wish you all the best.

 

On 17/06/2024 at 17:07, Comrade 86 said:

Just my opinion, but I think now is a terrible time to be buying BTC.

DYOR

[NottsRam77]

Buying the dip is always a sensib

1 hour ago, Comrade 86 said:

BTC down £4.5K since I urged caution a week back, £2.5k over the following 7 days and another £2k today. I think it's likely approaching a new support level, but irrespective of whether it does or not, had anyone considering buying BTC this time last week waited, as I suggested they should (see below), they would already be able to buy 8% more coins than had they not. Some might consider that insignificant, but I certainly don't! 

As it is, the next 24 to 48 hours now seems quite critical. If you'd bought at £7k to £15K you'd obviously not be panicking yet, but new investors who bought at the recent highs will definitely be getting a tad twitchy and that could exacerbate the downslide. A studious watching brief is advised!

FWIW, I'll be diving back onboard at some point as to my mind this is simply balancing and needs to happen before we see another proper bear run. Institutional investors now stand to lose too much, especially those with leveraged positions and they will have to step in at some point. For my part, I still fully believe in BTC as a project and an investment, but I do feel that comments that were questioned or disregarded, have now been vindicated.

Lets examine some facts vs opinions: a 5 coin stash if sold last Tuesday would have netted @£263,000.00. The same amount of coins would cost a whopping £24,000.00 less at time of writing. More to the point, reinvested, the same buyer would now have over 5.5 coins in his or her wallet without investing a single penny of additional savings. That's half a coin, or @£24k for a week's 'work' and all achieved in a bearish market. Seems like nice apples to me  🫢 

 

DYOR

Well played… miner capitulation has always been part of the bull market cycle and seems this one is no different as weak inefficient miners  switch off.

Id say theres never a bad time to buy bitcoin, for reasons i have rammed down everyones throat 😂… but no ones going to turn their nose up at 8% more coins for ur money👏🏻👏🏻🥇

im not brave or good enough to trade it though, cos u never know bitcoin has a habbit of leaving people behind and i dont want to run the risk of having to buy back higher

 I hodle, hold and buy when i can afford to without putting myself under pressure to find money when theres a dip. If i do buy a dip its by coincidence. 
 

Agree re hitting support. Last few months the 60k ish mark has proved to be too deep for the bears to push us through so see what happens

might be worth noting too in 10 days theres due a circa 5% drop in difficulty level.. this may well cause some miners to come back on line and help stabilise price

either way im not worried, bitcoin can go up, down or sideways,

long term here i know im winning 😎

Edited June 24 by NottsRam77

[Comrade 86]

2 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

Buying the dip is always a sensib

Well played… miner capitulation has always been part of the bull market cycle and seems this one is no different as weak inefficient miners  switch off.

Id say theres never a bad time to buy bitcoin, for reasons i have rammed down everyones throat 😂… but no ones going to turn their nose up at 8% more coins for ur money.

im not brave enough to trade it though, cos u never know bitcoin has a habbit of screwing and i dont want to run the risk of having to buy back higher

hodle and hold and buy when i can afford to without putting myself under pressure to find money when theres a dip. If i do buy a dip its by coincidence. 
 

Agree re hitting support last few months the 60k ish mark has proved to be too deep for the bears to push us through

Looking at the whole cause and effect thing, the German government has decided to offload and that's always going to cause concern, firstly, due to the volumes and secondly, because folk assume governments know what they're on about. A dangerous school of thought these days!

Also, the whole Mt. Gox palaver has impacted things too, though I did wonder whether that might not actually bolster the price rather than the opposite. Investors not being left in the lurch should surely breed greater confidence in the crypto sector, not less, but perhaps the Germany thing has outweighed the Mt.Gox thing and assuming any losses are linked to the latter is flawed thinking. Really hard to tell. I also don't recall banks shelling out to those they hurt, rather they took more to pay for their idiocy, greed and recklessness.

Likewise, not sure if you've seen the Trump BS. Christ that man's a snake. No conflict of interests there then! I do wonder whether diminished confidence in Trump to do what he said he would is also a factor. I'd not trust him further than I could spit. Sleepy Joe now also performing a U-turn allegedly, though going in the opposite direction. If you ever wanted conclusive proof that neither has any idea what they're doing, this is it.

As for the immediate future, I'm now thinking that something around £46k might be the magic number. Hard to believe that Blackrock, Saylor and the like are not going to step in at some point as their new funds will be dead in the water and all public trust shot to pieces were they not to.

Also, the last dip to that level (£46K) saw prices rally to an ATH. I understand your reticence to mess with what looks to be a solid long term investment, but I'd argue trading is actually less risky, though the demands on your time and availability mean it's not for everyone.

[NottsRam77]

2 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Looking at the whole cause and effect thing, the German government has decided to offload and that's always going to cause concern, firstly, due to the volumes and secondly, because folk assume governments know what they're on about. A dangerous school of thought these days!

Also, the whole Mt. Gox palaver has impacted things too, though I did wonder whether that might not actually bolster the price rather than the opposite. Investors not being left in the lurch should surely breed greater confidence in the crypto sector, not less, but perhaps the Germany thing has outweighed the Mt.Gox thing and assuming any losses are linked to the latter is flawed thinking. Really hard to tell. I also don't recall banks shelling out to those they hurt, rather they took more to pay for their idiocy, greed and recklessness.

Likewise, not sure if you've seen the Trump BS. Christ that man's a snake. No conflict of interests there then! I do wonder whether diminished confidence in Trump to do what he said he would is also a factor. I'd not trust him further than I could spit. Sleepy Joe now also performing a U-turn allegedly, though going in the opposite direction. If you ever wanted conclusive proof that neither has any idea what they're doing, this is it.

As for the immediate future, I'm now thinking that something around £46k might be the magic number. Hard to believe that Blackrock, Saylor and the like are not going to step in at some point as their new funds will be dead in the water and all public trust shot to pieces were they not to.

Also, the last dip to that level (£46K) saw prices rally to an ATH. I understand your reticence to mess with what looks to be a solid long term investment, but I'd argue trading is actually less risky, though the demands on your time and availability mean it's not for everyone.

Agree 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

omg trump ….i dont trust or believe a single word that comes out of that mans mouth lol
 

Believe me if i had any confidence in my ability to trade it i would in a heartbeat…. Love to be able to do it

But its safer that i dont for my own sake and sanity 🤪

Edited June 24 by NottsRam77

[Stive Pesley]

15 hours ago, NottsRam77 said:

might be worth noting too in 10 days theres due a circa 5% drop in difficulty level.. this may well cause some miners to come back on line and help stabilise price

This is one of the reasons why I struggle to understand why people have such blind faith in BTC being a long term safe bet

These tweak mechanisms like the 4 year halving and the 14 day difficulty level tweaking are designed to somehow try and stabilise things, but no one knows what will happen long term

After another 4 halvings, there will be so few coins left to mine that (under current conditions) no amount of tweaking of the block difficulty is going to make it profitable to mine coins. So there are all sorts of proposals and predictions about introducing transaction fees to reward miners for adding blocks to the chain rather than mining coins - but it's all theory right now. Or mining methods might change to be more efficient. Or they might come up with some other new tweaking mechanisms. No one really has any idea how this will play out. It's all happening on the fly, with no precedent

So how anyone can say with any certainty that BTC is a safe investment, is beyond me

 

[Comrade 86]

8 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

So how anyone can say with any certainty that BTC is a safe investment, is beyond me

 You're a bit lemon on this particular subject, aren't you Stive? 😋 Most are quite happy to admit that crypto is volatile. I don't know many who say otherwise. If it's not for you, fine, but why the scorn? You gleefully hailed the death of crypto a few years back at a time when supposedly useful idiots like me were furiously filling our bags, apparently fuelled only by blind faith, but be honest, who's laughing now, you or them? 

Edited June 25 by Comrade 86

[NottsRam77]

On 25/06/2024 at 11:18, Stive Pesley said:

This is one of the reasons why I struggle to understand why people have such blind faith in BTC being a long term safe bet

These tweak mechanisms like the 4 year halving and the 14 day difficulty level tweaking are designed to somehow try and stabilise things, but no one knows what will happen long term

After another 4 halvings, there will be so few coins left to mine that (under current conditions) no amount of tweaking of the block difficulty is going to make it profitable to mine coins. So there are all sorts of proposals and predictions about introducing transaction fees to reward miners for adding blocks to the chain rather than mining coins - but it's all theory right now. Or mining methods might change to be more efficient. Or they might come up with some other new tweaking mechanisms. No one really has any idea how this will play out. It's all happening on the fly, with no precedent

So how anyone can say with any certainty that BTC is a safe investment, is beyond me

 

Theres so so much to pull apart here but its too hot and i cant be arsed 😂
 

 

 

Edited June 26 by NottsRam77

[Comrade 86]

7 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

Theres so so much to pull apart here but its too hot and i cant be arsed lol 

I think the thread has run its useful life mate. 

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, Comrade 86 said:

I think the thread has run its useful life mate. 

Especially if you bitcoin bros can't take any sort of gentle questioning without resorting to name calling 🍋

Nonetheless I find the topic fascinating as an IT geek, but I have no scorn. Just that I've spent nearly 30 years in problem and incident management so I'm hard-wired to anticipate potential problems in IT solutions. Sorry

[Comrade 86]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Especially if you bitcoin bros can't take any sort of gentle questioning without resorting to name calling 🍋

Nonetheless I find the topic fascinating as an IT geek, but I have no scorn. Just that I've spent nearly 30 years in problem and incident management so I'm hard-wired to anticipate potential problems in IT solutions. Sorry

Ok, I'll endeavour to respond to this plainly to avoid scope for further criticism.

First off, calling someone's attitude 'lemon' is about as 'gentle' as I get Stive. It simply means bitter. If you choose to take it as an insult or name calling, so be it, but I'd also have thought someone as smart as you would have taken the accompanying emoji as a broad hint as to the intended tone. That said, given that you've decided to take it as an insult, please accept this as an apology. In response however, I'd politely suggest that were your interest really genuine and since we're now apparently examining syntax to find new and inventive ways to argue, the use of terms like crypto bros seems a tad sneery and unhelpful, likewise the oft used Ponzi scheme dismissal and the insistence that there's no such thing as market intelligence and trading strategies, only dumb luck. Without wanting to labour the point, I don't actually see you asking any questions at all and I think if you were being as frank as you suggest, you'd acknowledge that. But it's cool bro, as FWIW, I don't feel insulted, just indifferent, so no apology required 😉

Onto the explanation (again), might there have been more salient posts you could have picked up on. recently?  I did after all and highly unusually state bluntly that at the time of posting, it was a terrible time to buy BTC - beginning the very next day and lasting 8 and ahalf days, we saw a minor bloodbath with the sector suffering $500 billion losses and Bitcoin albeit briefly trading at over 10% less than when I'd suggested folk might want gold fire. I then suggested the institutional investors would step in at around £46k (I even named them) and they did. Almost to the dollar, in fact. Now I reckon for someone with a genuine interest might have might have had some different questions to yours. 

Addressing your 'gentle questioning' and in the spirit of DYOR, this crypto bro would recommend you first have a look at 'proof or worth vs proof of stake'. Next, if so inclined, you might want to research the required hash rates / GPU numbers (and the associated costs) that are required to mine even a single bitcoin and the runtimes involved. Lastly, maybe look into how many BTC are made available for mining in any 24 hour period and of those, how many are secured by individual miners. I suspect within 30 minutes, given your IT background, you'll understand why it's a complete red herring. Setting aside the tech aspects for one moment, as some even rudimentary understanding of trading strategies would help too, might the simple principle that increasing supply and availability typically dilutes value, not the opposite be some sort of clue here? The 'good' question and the one I asked myself some time back, was why are BTC making it increasingly difficult for miners, to what end and does their underlying aim present an angle to exploit? Again, DYOR.

A last thread specific point would be that with only myself and Notts and a few occasional, but persistent detractors posting, there seems little point in pursuing the thread further, certainly from my perspective. With a dispassionate eye, there is nothing for me to gain and people don't change their minds these days, they really don't. It's not my business, nor my aim to evangelise. I have though tried to nip dangerous dogma in the bud and to offer some insights that I thought might at least encourage folk to take a more open minded look for themselves. How's that working out for me? 

And with that I'll bid the thread farewell once and for all and leave you, my old friend, to crack on with your 'gentle probing' 😋*

Much love,

86 

* For the sake of clarity, this is a cheeky attempt at humour and no offence ought be derived 

[NottsRam77]

9 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

I think the thread has run its useful life mate. 

Its only just began 🤪😂🤓

Joking .. Agree 

Edited June 27 by NottsRam77

[Stive Pesley]

Appreciate the response @Comrade 86 and I'm sorry if I've come across as a "detractor" because I do genuinely find the topic fascinating. But I'm not an investor and I do find that a lot of investors seem unusually sensitive to people questioning the Lord God Bitcoin, which can sometimes put me in devil's advocate mode

My questions are a lot less to do with the next 10 years of Bitcoin - which is somewhat easier to call (because it's happening *now*) and a lot more to do with the longer term when we've had another 4 or 5 halvings and we're close to full supply. No one can predict how this is going to go. No one

But as you say - there are a lot of powerful vested interests now who will do what it takes to protect their interests. Not sure how that will work out for the regular joes though

FWIW I never saw this thread as a means to convert people to BTC or away from it. I just think it's really interesting and I genuinely hope that anyone who has taken a punt gets all that they hoped for

This was intriguing - that the Feds can manipulate the price by returning seized BTC to the market. I wonder how much more of this they have up their sleeve
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/26/bitcoin-falls-after-us-sends-240m-worth-of-silk-road-related-btc-to-coinbase/

 

[NottsRam77]

Great posts fellas @Stive Pesley, @Comrade 86

 

Edited June 27 by NottsRam77

[Comrade 86]

21 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Appreciate the response @Comrade 86 and I'm sorry if I've come across as a "detractor" because I do genuinely find the topic fascinating. But I'm not an investor and I do find that a lot of investors seem unusually sensitive to people questioning the Lord God Bitcoin, which can sometimes put me in devil's advocate mode

My questions are a lot less to do with the next 10 years of Bitcoin - which is somewhat easier to call (because it's happening *now*) and a lot more to do with the longer term when we've had another 4 or 5 halvings and we're close to full supply. No one can predict how this is going to go. No one

But as you say - there are a lot of powerful vested interests now who will do what it takes to protect their interests. Not sure how that will work out for the regular joes though

FWIW I never saw this thread as a means to convert people to BTC or away from it. I just think it's really interesting and I genuinely hope that anyone who has taken a punt gets all that they hoped for

This was intriguing - that the Feds can manipulate the price by returning seized BTC to the market. I wonder how much more of this they have up their sleeve
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/06/26/bitcoin-falls-after-us-sends-240m-worth-of-silk-road-related-btc-to-coinbase/

 

Felt ignorant not to reply to this, so with brevity...

Lots of conflicting views out there. On the evangelist side, one talking head is blithely stating that $1 million is a 'reasonable' not impossible scenario. On the other side, the imminent demise of Bitcoin. Both stories generate clicks and therein lies the pinch. No small irony that in a world of so much information, the truth has never been harder to find. And to be honest, I only look 12 months ahead and find that challenging enough for my little brain.

The Fed thing seems a bit overblown to me as I can't see any lasting impact anyway. Sums weren't huge, but it's clumsy and the fiat and crypto worlds do seem increasingly at odds.

 

[cstand]

On 25/06/2024 at 11:18, Stive Pesley said:

This is one of the reasons why I struggle to understand why people have such blind faith in BTC being a long term safe bet

These tweak mechanisms like the 4 year halving and the 14 day difficulty level tweaking are designed to somehow try and stabilise things, but no one knows what will happen long term

After another 4 halvings, there will be so few coins left to mine that (under current conditions) no amount of tweaking of the block difficulty is going to make it profitable to mine coins. So there are all sorts of proposals and predictions about introducing transaction fees to reward miners for adding blocks to the chain rather than mining coins - but it's all theory right now. Or mining methods might change to be more efficient. Or they might come up with some other new tweaking mechanisms. No one really has any idea how this will play out. It's all happening on the fly, with no precedent

So how anyone can say with any certainty that BTC is a safe investment, is beyond me

 

I recently found this info to make mining more efficient. 

https://quantumblockchaintechnologies.co.uk/products-services
 

Edited June 29 by cstand

[NottsRam77]

On 25/06/2024 at 11:18, Stive Pesley said:

This is one of the reasons why I struggle to understand why people have such blind faith in BTC being a long term safe bet

These tweak mechanisms like the 4 year halving and the 14 day difficulty level tweaking are designed to somehow try and stabilise things, but no one knows what will happen long term

After another 4 halvings, there will be so few coins left to mine that (under current conditions) no amount of tweaking of the block difficulty is going to make it profitable to mine coins. So there are all sorts of proposals and predictions about introducing transaction fees to reward miners for adding blocks to the chain rather than mining coins - but it's all theory right now. Or mining methods might change to be more efficient. Or they might come up with some other new tweaking mechanisms. No one really has any idea how this will play out. It's all happening on the fly, with no precedent

So how anyone can say with any certainty that BTC is a safe investment, is beyond me

 

Ok its not as hot and i can be arsed now lol

Obviously its up to u where u put ur money and bitcoin isnt for everyone and no one should try to convince u otherwise.

to answer your concerns…. If theres fewer coins then they will be selling at a higher price assuming the demand for bitcoin stays at the same level. Thats simply supply vs demand.
So in theory maybe theres a day where the price of a satoshi is worth one cent and people arnt accumulating in bitcoin but indeed measuring their stash in sats.

your concern about mining efficiency. I went to a speech by jack mallors who described this brilliantly and better than i will but i will try.

when satoshi created bitcoin.. he also created his own time. 
no one , no matter how powerful a computer they have can mine more bitcoin per day than the program allows.

no one person, no group of people , no institution can create a super computer that can move time forward and pull out all the bitcoin.

that bitcoin outstanding is programmed into time and no one can change that.

if fast better quicker miners come out then the difficulty level will increase and the less powerful miners will become reduntant.

Gold is stuck in the ground and we could pull out the last nugget tomorrow or mine it for the next 1000 years at a quicker rate as mining technology improves  ….bitcoin is stuck in time… heck the future and no one can touch it

to me thats sodding genius.

Edited June 29 by NottsRam77

[Tamworthram]

2 hours ago, NottsRam77 said:

Ok its not as hot and i can be arsed now lol

Obviously its up to u where u put ur money and bitcoin isnt for everyone and no one should try to convince u otherwise.

to answer your concerns…. If theres fewer coins then they will be selling at a higher price assuming the demand for bitcoin stays at the same level. Thats simply supply vs demand.
So in theory maybe theres a day where the price of a satoshi is worth one cent and people arnt accumulating in bitcoin but indeed measuring their stash in sats.

your concern about mining efficiency. I went to a speech by jack mallors who described this brilliantly and better than i will but i will try.

when satoshi created bitcoin.. he also created his own time. 
no one , no matter how powerful a computer they have can mine more bitcoin per day than the program allows.

no one person, no group of people , no institution can create a super computer that can move time forward and pull out all the bitcoin.

that bitcoin outstanding is programmed into time and no one can change that.

if fast better quicker miners come out then the difficulty level will increase and the less powerful miners will become reduntant.

Gold is stuck in the ground and we could pull out the last nugget tomorrow or mine it for the next 1000 years at a quicker rate as mining technology improves  ….bitcoin is stuck in time… heck the future and no one can touch it

to me thats sodding genius.

Wait, what? Isn’t that what you’ve been trying to do all along? 😀

[GboroRam]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Wait, what? Isn’t that what you’ve been trying to do all along? 😀

Honestly I'd say no he isn't (I appreciate the smiley but behind the question is a hint of truth). The reality is that people like me and you are looking at the posts and wondering if we're missing the next boat to a richer future or if bitcoin will crash and burn. 

If it crashes we will be saying, I'm glad I didn't get pulled in with the hype. Those investors who went in with eyes open hopefully will say, I took a chance and it didn't pay off. Those who ponied up thinking it's a guaranteed return will be learning fast. 

It's all down to your tolerance of risk and your perception of it. I perceive it as more risk than I can afford right now. But reading posts from people with money in bitcoin, it does make me think, what if?

[NottsRam77]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

Wait, what? Isn’t that what you’ve been trying to do all along? 😀

No iv been discussing why financial system is broken and designed to keep us the average jo poor and how bitcoin offers people a chance to break/ escape that system.. and how and why it does that

If u think im convincing then uv answered the above questions lol  

[NottsRam77]

35 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

Honestly I'd say no he isn't (I appreciate the smiley but behind the question is a hint of truth). The reality is that people like me and you are looking at the posts and wondering if we're missing the next boat to a richer future or if bitcoin will crash and burn. 

If it crashes we will be saying, I'm glad I didn't get pulled in with the hype. Those investors who went in with eyes open hopefully will say, I took a chance and it didn't pay off. Those who ponied up thinking it's a guaranteed return will be learning fast. 

It's all down to your tolerance of risk and your perception of it. I perceive it as more risk than I can afford right now. But reading posts from people with money in bitcoin, it does make me think, what if?

Really Good balanced post 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

its all down to personal situstion, risk tolerance and time scale 

As has been pointed out through this thread, dont ever take the word of some off a football forum or any other platform without doing your own research. 
its actually fascinating in itself the way money works and how its supposed to work. 
but anyway i digress