RAMalicious Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 31 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: Though it breaks every rule in their book to tighten into a slowing economy, unfortunately that is the reality of the situation. So if the economy is slowing and the BoE raise rates. As their hand is forced by the FED, one assumes that will further slow the economy.... So what happens after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 7 minutes ago, RAMalicious said: So if the economy is slowing and the BoE raise rates. As their hand is forced by the FED, one assumes that will further slow the economy.... So what happens after that? Cut rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Repeat til fade out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 3 hours ago, RAMalicious said: So if the economy is slowing and the BoE raise rates. As their hand is forced by the FED, one assumes that will further slow the economy.... So what happens after that? There is no precedent to any of this. If you'd have told anyone 10 years ago you'd have negative yields on Italian debt you'd be laughed out the room. So who really knows what the end game is? The scenario one could easily imagine is for interest rates to rise following the Fed, the economy tanking, slashing rates again (possibly negative) and doing another massive QE stimulus that dwarfs the last. How long that method would hold up the system is arguable. That would not end well though IMO. On the other hand, you do have to wonder whether they can maintain control to follow that prescribed route (as bad as it is). If people flee the euro or pound for instance then interest rates would rise and rise fast irrespective of consequences. The currency would be the last domino to fall. Just have to wait and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 They will run stimulus prolonging the status quo until the whole thing eventually fails, it's all they have left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This is a really good video on understanding how our finance/monetary system works. It also explains far better than I attempted about why it is impossible to pay back the debt that has been issued and how we must go into more debt at all times (until collapse). I imagine people will be truly shocked to see the extent of profiteering out of money creation that commercial banks have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 6 hours ago, SillyBilly said: This is a really good video on understanding how our finance/monetary system works. It also explains far better than I attempted about why it is impossible to pay back the debt that has been issued and how we must go into more debt at all times (until collapse). I imagine people will be truly shocked to see the extent of profiteering out of money creation that commercial banks have. Great watch, but understanding a system, and knowing how to limit it's impact are different things, I'll watch the rest of the videos before buying a shotgun and stocking up on tinned food and diesel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 10 minutes ago, reveldevil said: Great watch, but understanding a system, and knowing how to limit it's impact are different things, I'll watch the rest of the videos before buying a shotgun and stocking up on tinned food and diesel. Lol, his videos are good educationally but should come with the disclaimer he is a massive gold bug. Episode 6 (I think) is very good too in terms of describing how this unravels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, SillyBilly said: Lol, his videos are good educationally but should come with the disclaimer he is a massive gold bug. Episode 6 (I think) is very good too in terms of describing how this unravels. I did notice the video was supported by a gold and silver dealer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 11 hours ago, reveldevil said: I did notice the video was supported by a gold and silver dealer! Mike Maloney has been peddling his wares to P.M bugs for a good many years, he's not the worse by far, actually quite like him because he argues the case well for such as P.Ms. I've just got a bit bored listening to them all since 2008. He's more a Silver bug than Gold of late, because it presents the greatest upside. Cynic in me says it presents him with the greatest opportunity too. Have you seen figures for American Silver Eagles out the U.S mint lately as S.B will no doubt say, all useful within a diversified portfolio, albeit the insurance premium by whatever means, carries some risk holding physical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/27/living-dangerously-2016-light-fuse-impending-explosion-global-economy Very good, honest article in the Guardian. I have to say I have noticed that now the Guardian and the Telegraph are both consistently reporting on how precarious things are looking - I don't remember this last time round. At least people have fore-warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 This video was made in 2010 by the Tax Payers Alliance about the actual UK debt. Suffice to say things have deteriorated rapidly since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Pound continuing its slide against USD today. On the right side of that trade for now but got the larger position in short Euro-long USD which I am still on the wrong side of following the late year rally. I am actually more pessimistic on the £-$ than 2009 lows based on fundamentals. I expect to see $1.35 or less within a year or so. Another crisis in 16 or 17, given the starting point I'd personally keep my money in right toward the 1985 lows at parity. And for reference the BoE in the 1985 panic increased rates from a low on Wed, 07 Mar 1984 to a high on Mon, 28 Jan 1985 by 5.32%. The high then was at 13.875%. I still think Sterling plays a big role here. We all seem to take it as a given we can hold rates low and QE Pump infinitely. We can't if there is a run on the £. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 One of Mike's more recent video's, he's on form here. Edit: Good plug for Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad Oh and should add, you have to be really interested to listen to the full hour, but he tries to keep it simple and explains it well I.m.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 FTSE ends 2015 5% down and in negative territory for the second year running. Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 2 hours ago, Ramarena said: FTSE ends 2015 5% down and in negative territory for the second year running. Happy New Year I'd have been better off stuffing money into a Manky cash isa at 1.4%. Oh well....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Happy new year guys! At 7000 FTSE was sat on a P/E ratio of about 15, the long term historical average. Its about 40% off inflation adjusted highs of the tech bubble. Still way off 2008/2009 highs too. I know lots of people say the dollar will reverse but I am personally still betting on at least a year to 2 years more of dollar strength and therefore commodity weakness. With so much equity in the miners/commodities/oil space for the FTSE 100, short term a strong dollar is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shang Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 On 30/12/2015 at 20:43, Zag zig said: One of Mike's more recent video's, he's on form here. Edit: Good plug for Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad, Poor Dad Oh and should add, you have to be really interested to listen to the full hour, but he tries to keep it simple and explains it well I.m.o What I gathered from that video, their recommendation is to buy physical gold, and when the market collapses, people will flock back to it, increasing the price for it where we cash it in for more money to help us out. Is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 31 minutes ago, Shang said: What I gathered from that video, their recommendation is to buy physical gold, and when the market collapses, people will flock back to it, increasing the price for it where we cash it in for more money to help us out. Is that right? Gold is a hedge against government (IMO). Basically the ponzi debt which they have created and can't pay back. Some people will say gold is actually money or gold is a hedge against inflation. The debate can get interesting at that point and it's another thread on its own really. Personally, I have been buying since early to mid 2015 and will continue to do so all through 2016. I buy silver through Estonia so it's VAT exempt (would not buy otherwise) but buy gold in the U.K which is VAT exempt across EU. I expect the price to continue to fall with a deflationary outlook for all metals so I would not buy for short term gains. Most of what I intend to buy will be gold and silver stocks though, I have a relatively small amount of physical. So not what the likes of Maloney would advise. It fits me though. His analysis is very good in that video, you should make your own mind up about what action to take though. If you believe the economy will continue to expand and that the system is sustainable then you should steer clear of precious metals. I personally have made my mind up which way this is going so I am perhaps not the most impartial of observers which you may have gathered! I don't post with any other interest than to share my own thoughts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shang Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 50 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: Gold is a hedge against government (IMO). Basically the ponzi debt which they have created and can't pay back. Some people will say gold is actually money or gold is a hedge against inflation. The debate can get interesting at that point and it's another thread on its own really. Personally, I have been buying since early to mid 2015 and will continue to do so all through 2016. I buy silver through Estonia so it's VAT exempt (would not buy otherwise) but buy gold in the U.K which is VAT exempt across EU. I expect the price to continue to fall with a deflationary outlook for all metals so I would not buy for short term gains. Most of what I intend to buy will be gold and silver stocks though, I have a relatively small amount of physical. So not what the likes of Maloney would advise. It fits me though. His analysis is very good in that video, you should make your own mind up about what action to take though. If you believe the economy will continue to expand and that the system is sustainable then you should steer clear of precious metals. I personally have made my mind up which way this is going so I am perhaps not the most impartial of observers which you may have gathered! I don't post with any other interest than to share my own thoughts though. From everything I've read and watched, my natural instinct is that this can't last and I don't think the combined efforts of every country in the world can fix this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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