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The Martingale Betting System

Ghost of Clough

By Ghost of Clough
in The Jim Smith Room

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Martyn

Martyn

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You'll also get banned almost straight away as soon as they realise what you're doing.

Yeah the only trick with that. He said it was funny, the croupier kept laughing, must've have know exactly what he was doing 'cos it stood out so much. He was only there on a lad's night out, so it wasn't a massive amount he made or anything.

He was just surprised how easy and effective it was. You just need to crack getting away with it...

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eddie

eddie

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My mate learnt card counting out of intellectual curiosity before he went to a casino.

Turns out it's easy and it does work.

It is indeed fairly easy to do (I have worked in the industry), but not easy to do well - or without a 'tell'. There is one big problem though - if a casino even suspects you of card-counting, they can and will ask you to leave the premises - and then you can find yourself barred from every UK casino.

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eddie

eddie

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Incidentally, regarding card-counting, there is one way that a casino can infer with reasonable accuracy that card-counting is going on. Anyone want to hazard a guess how?

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Bris Vegas

Bris Vegas

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Bris:

Sorry if I was somewhat abrupt - I'm not trying to pick an argument or anything (well, no more than normal), but as a mathematician AND a gambler, I feel confident to state that the biggest flaw in any betting system that relies on trying to cover all previous losses with your next bet (such as Martingale) is that, in the long term, your losing streak will go on for so long, no matter how ridiculously favourable the odds for the next wager might be, that you will not be able to afford the stake for the next bet or it will exceed the house limits. That's why they have house limits. The details are irrelevant.

I'm not suggesting that in the short term you cannot win - what I'm saying is that in the long term you WILL lose. The only question is how long long-term actually is. Any other outcome flies in the face of mathematical probabilities. That's not to suggest that you shouldn't play of course.

I play roulette, and I love the game - but I wouldn't ever EXPECT to win. In the UK, we have a single-zero wheel which only gives the house a 2.7% 'edge' - but that's still enough to ensure that in the long-term (whether that be weeks, months, years or decades), they will get my money and I will not get their casino - but it's still fun trying and they do give me free coffee and sandwiches.

I think you've misunderstood what I was saying.. Or we've both got our wires crossed..

I fully agree with you in that it's a flawed system, but I'm not talking about fixed odds on games of roulette.. I've seen with my own eyes about 11 blacks come out in a row.. When it's literally fixed 49% chance or even 33% or whatever mathematically you're going to get caught out in the longrun..

But I'm talking about football and basketball where it's not done through fixced percentages... It's such a hard game to read that a martingale system isn't as bad as it sounds.. Especially if you do what I do and play around 3/1 so I don't need to go doubling up everytime... Not only that, accumulators which I do involve games at different times meaning I always have a lay option to guarantee a profit..

Regardless of what people are saying, if I feel it really doesn't work (my system) then I'll walk away, but in the meantime, I'm happy to collect the profits and let other people decide..

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eddie

eddie

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Using your judgement based upon probabilities isn't really a system, Bris - it's using your knowledge and experience to 'bend the odds' in your favour. The Martingale system is only really applicable when randomness is a factor.

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eddie

eddie

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You end up winning?

Ha ha.

You're actually not far off - but it's down to behaviour and betting patterns backed up by the data they are gathering with every bet you make. Basically, the optical card recognition software feeds a data capture system and essentially the casino performs an ongoing card counting system themselves with every single card released from the shoe. This information is then automatically compared with the bets the player makes. If he is playing continuously from the shuffle and placing minimum stake bets and then suddently he places a series of maximum bets as soon as the table odds tilts heavily in the player's favour (low percentage of low cards left, therefore a higher likelihood of the bank going bust) - coupled with the player suddenly 'standing' on lower totals, it's basically a reasonable indication.

Of course, no casino is going to take action straight away - the guy could be a 'whale' who just needed to warm up a little. However, if he repeats the action a few times - and by 'a few times' I mean several shuffles, several tables perhaps - the next thing the casino will do is to have a quick look at their database. If he is a guest of a regular member, if he is a first-timer, if it is a 'walk-in' casino, if he pops up on the 'recognised suspect player' list - any of these things, they will all prompt some action from the casino. This action might, in all likelihood, be 'oh, leave it for this time but let's make a note of this character'. People who are nervous often look suspicious - but it isn't necessarily an indication of untoward activity.

It could easily be a card counter - but if he's a first-time visitor and he is a guest of a valuable whale (big gambler), it might be that the casino decides to take the loss. After all, high-rollers are very valued customers and you are not going to upset one of your best players just because his guest has fleeced you out of a few quid. A discrete word or - even better - subtly apologise and close the blackjack table as soon as he goes up to max stake for the third or fourth time, change the dealer, send over a bottle of Krug to the high-roller and everyone just chill for half an hour and he will get the message that you are on to him without causing a scene. He's then likely to cash in his chips - or perhaps go and play roulette.

Either way, you have minimised your losses, not lost your best high roller and you've still got the data on the guy. At this point you update your database and notify the other casinos in your group that you have suspicions.

It's important to remember that card counting is not illegal - but casinos consider it to be unfair. It isn't - it's just being clever - but casinos like stupid people (and Martingale players too).

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eddie

eddie

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Very interesting Eddie, so the MIT blackjack team would never pull off their well documented card counting fleecing of the casinos these days?

To a lesser degree they still could, but they would have to be careful about the choice of target so the scale of the coup would be much more limited. Very few casinos in the UK so far have the software - and the hardware is expensive too, but you can bet your life that Vegas (not Bris), Reno, Atlantic City etc are up to speed already. I've seen it demonstrated and no more when I was involved in the industry. You need to be able to detect the value of the chips and chip plaques, optical card readers and the like. The day is coming when all the big casinos and chains will be up to speed - then they will need to find some other method.

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