World of crypto

[NottsRam77]

4 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

How is that different to those 'discreet' accounts in Switzerland or Lichtenstein though? No account number, no access, just the same as with crypto. Also, portable wallets are physical items, just fancy pen drives really. Presumably they might be found in the deceased's belongings, as might their stored seed phrases and even encrypted drives can be cracked. I agree the risk is higher with younger folk, but do many younger folk have wills anyway? I also think the 1 in 5 estimate is probably a significant overestimate too.

The difference here, as you point out, is that BTC has made more young people wealthy, so I suppose your point is valid in that regard, given I doubt too many 20 year olds have accrued vast reserves of gold or precious stones, but thousands and thousands of young kids are BTC millionaires. How many other more traditional stores of worth go unclaimed though, despite probate? Plenty I'd wager, if reports of huge amounts lying in dormant accounts hold any truth.

Some great points 

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

I'd say if you want to make money out of bitcoin, the last thing you want is to swap it out for Fiat as the basis of your country's economy. 

I think you've highlighted exactly what I find so paradoxical about BTC. People buy it as a "store of value" but it only holds value in relation to FIAT currency. So you can only realise that value by selling it in exchange for the FIAT currency. Which of course leaves you with a fistful of the thing you claim is rubbish and needs to be replaced by BTC. 

The only real way to make money from BTC is to be a miner, or a broker

 

[Comrade 86]

25 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I think you've highlighted exactly what I find so paradoxical about BTC. People buy it as a "store of value" but it only holds value in relation to FIAT currency. So you can only realise that value by selling it in exchange for the FIAT currency. Which of course leaves you with a fistful of the thing you claim is rubbish and needs to be replaced by BTC. 

The only real way to make money from BTC is to be a miner, or a broker

 

If you'd bought at £12k 14 months back and sold at £56k you'd probably not be overly stressed though Stive. I don't see fiat as being quite the bête noire that NottsRam does, though I agree with some of the principles he outlines. I'd also argue that 'spendability' (sorry made up word, but you get my drift) will increase as institutional investor holdings grow, though my strategy has always been to trade and play in the cracks and then use any resulting fiat to invest in something with a lower risk profile. The last time I cashed out any significant amoun (alt coins not BTC), I used some of the profits to put a down payment on a flat for the boy and stuck the rest into BTC. I won't get that cash back, so I won't benefit as such, but you can see how others might by adopting the same strategy. The trick is trying to accurately estimate when hold or fold and my thinking on that is not to worry about what you might leave on the table as when the crypto market goes full bearish, it's an overnight thing and that's really the only thing that gives me significant pause for thought. 

Edited April 10 by Comrade 86

[NottsRam77]

43 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I think you've highlighted exactly what I find so paradoxical about BTC. People buy it as a "store of value" but it only holds value in relation to FIAT currency. So you can only realise that value by selling it in exchange for the FIAT currency. Which of course leaves you with a fistful of the thing you claim is rubbish and needs to be replaced by BTC. 

The only real way to make money from BTC is to be a miner, or a broker

 

But we live in a fiat world for now.

all my debt is in fiat, my mortgage etc so sadly it is the only option but to cash out. 
 

but that said if it solves a real life problem (my mortgage) ill happily do it.

ill then look at my next goal, putting my kids through uni or buying them their first house etc etc etc. by basically shorting the pound by buying bitcoin

The question i ask … lets say i have 500 quid a month spare to pay off my mortgage early 

do i 

a) pay off monthly and make the overpayment, saving on the interest

b) put in a “high interest” saver and make a big overpayment at the end of the term

c) buy and save in bitcoin with a minimum 4 year (one cycle) timeframe

Option c every day 

Edited April 10 by NottsRam77

[Stive Pesley]

2 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

But we live in a fiat world for now.

all my debt is in fiat, my mortgage etc 

The question i ask … lets say i have 500 quid a month spare to pay off my mortgage early 

do i 

a) pay off monthly and make the overpayment, saving on the interest

b) put in a “high interest” saver and make a big overpayment at the end of the term

c) buy and save in bitcoin with a minimum 4 year (one cycle) timeframe

Option c every day 

I understand why you would (from all the very well reasoned posts you've made) - but to me, option C is by far the highest risk strategy (unregulated and volatile) of the 3 - hence one of the reasons I'm disinclined to go anywhere near it. Also ethically I don't feel comfortable with it, as I've mentioned before a few times!

 

[NottsRam77]

56 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I understand why you would (from all the very well reasoned posts you've made) - but to me, option C is by far the highest risk strategy (unregulated and volatile) of the 3 - hence one of the reasons I'm disinclined to go anywhere near it. Also ethically I don't feel comfortable with it, as I've mentioned before a few times!

 

Which is fair comment , its each to their own 👍

id never ever invest in something i deemed as high risk or was straight up not comfortable with

no problem with that, were allowed to disagree on things but still enjoy exchanging views etc etc 🙌

i keep my btc in cold storage so i consider my security risk minimal, i control my keys etc. 

volatility wise, depends on your timeframe … weekly, monthly annually perhaps … 4 years plus … historically it speaks for itself .. imo 

Edited April 10 by NottsRam77

[NottsRam77]

^^^Sorry that hasnt come out very clearly my bad 

[NottsRam77]

1 hour ago, Comrade 86 said:

If you'd bought at £12k 14 months back and sold at £56k you'd probably not be overly stressed though Stive. I don't see fiat as being quite the bête noire that NottsRam does, though I agree with some of the principles he outlines. I'd also argue that 'spendability' (sorry made up word, but you get my drift) will increase as institutional investor holdings grow, though my strategy has always been to trade and play in the cracks and then use any resulting fiat to invest in something with a lower risk profile. The last time I cashed out any significant amoun (alt coins not BTC), I used some of the profits to put a down payment on a flat for the boy and stuck the rest into BTC. I won't get that cash back, so I won't benefit as such, but you can see how others might by adopting the same strategy. The trick is trying to accurately estimate when hold or fold and my thinking on that is not to worry about what you might leave on the table as when the crypto market goes full bearish, it's an overnight thing and that's really the only thing that gives me significant pause for thought. 

Exactly this 

we still have to operate in a fiat world

so our “spendability” (great word lol) has to be measured in fiat. 
 

if i can protect and grow my money when measured against fiat i will.

im effectively doing the same when i cash out ill be paying off my mortage, so like u with that deposit on a flat im putting into a “safer” investment ie the bricks and mortar that i live in. 
 

i mean u could argue, people invest in stocks and shares or gold, u cant spend that at tesco and like bitcoin u have to cash out into fiat too.

 

Edited April 10 by NottsRam77

[Comrade 86]

1 hour ago, NottsRam77 said:

But we live in a fiat world for now.

all my debt is in fiat, my mortgage etc so sadly it is the only option but to cash out. 
 

but that said if it solves a real life problem (my mortgage) ill happily do it.

ill then look at my next goal, putting my kids through uni or buying them their first house etc etc etc. by basically shorting the pound by buying bitcoin

The question i ask … lets say i have 500 quid a month spare to pay off my mortgage early 

do i 

a) pay off monthly and make the overpayment, saving on the interest

b) put in a “high interest” saver and make a big overpayment at the end of the term

c) buy and save in bitcoin with a minimum 4 year (one cycle) timeframe

Option c every day 

I'd split between A & B myself. I'm far from risk averse, but I've been caught out with other investments (non-crypto) where I piled too many eggs into one basket (read 'played it like a greedy mug'). Working the cycle though seems to me to be the most sensible play and doing so may allow you to take a healthy whack out and ultimately still HODL a stack, if you believe the 10 year forecasts for BTC. I'm slightly torn on this though as my hunch is that there may still be some decent upside to BTC, as and when traditional markets fully recover. First rule of thumb for me has always been get the mortgage covered and the kids sorted. Everything else comes way behind those two aims, but at the end of the day, it's a very personal choice and only you will know what profile is acceptable given your circumstances and what is not. Being mortgage free though... It's a nice place to be!

[NottsRam77]

On the subject of property 

 

 

[Stive Pesley]

2 minutes ago, NottsRam77 said:

On the subject of property 

 

 

Certainly interesting, although the price changes in both have no direct correlation, not do they indicate any kind of predictive curve

Data looks to be cherry picked too - I guess it deliberately misses out the 2018 BTC peak as that would make it a bit too obvious how volatile BTC can be and wouldn't make for such an eye-catching point if it showed house prices steadily increasing while BTC goes up and down like a brides nightie!

 

 

 

[NottsRam77]

47 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

Certainly interesting, although the price changes in both have no direct correlation, not do they indicate any kind of predictive curve

Data looks to be cherry picked too - I guess it deliberately misses out the 2018 BTC peak as that would make it a bit too obvious how volatile BTC can be and wouldn't make for such an eye-catching point if it showed house prices steadily increasing while BTC goes up and down like a brides nightie!

 

 

 

Oh im sure it is a little manipulated to fit the agenda  lol

Tell u what though … when is is going to be 1btc = 1 median american house 👀

 

Edited April 10 by NottsRam77

[NottsRam77]

1 hour ago, Comrade 86 said:

I'd split between A & B myself. I'm far from risk averse, but I've been caught out with other investments (non-crypto) where I piled too many eggs into one basket (read 'played it like a greedy mug'). Working the cycle though seems to me to be the most sensible play and doing so may allow you to take a healthy whack out and ultimately still HODL a stack, if you believe the 10 year forecasts for BTC. I'm slightly torn on this though as my hunch is that there may still be some decent upside to BTC, as and when traditional markets fully recover. First rule of thumb for me has always been get the mortgage covered and the kids sorted. Everything else comes way behind those two aims, but at the end of the day, it's a very personal choice and only you will know what profile is acceptable given your circumstances and what is not. Being mortgage free though... It's a nice place to be!

Totally agree,

my life priority is mortgage, sort the kids, try and sort out my retirement

long long long way to go but as u say nothing after those things matter 

[NottsRam77]

I know im relentless with this 🙈

and i do apologise .. i just find it fascinating 🤓

But as of this minute we sit at 69k … back in nov 2021 we sat at what was the previous ath of 69k

At that time though the pound was 1.37 against the dollar.. as of this minute the pound as now slipped to 1.25 against the dollar.

So sat at 69k we are in fact about 8% above the previous ath … when measured in pounds, because the pounds buying power has slipped by circa 8% when measured against the dollar

strong asset (btc) vs a weaker asset (usd) vs an even weaker asset (the pound)  

my question to anyone is:

10 years time what does the relationship between those 3 assets look like then? 

Edited April 10 by NottsRam77

[NottsRam77]

A global macro financial assessment and An interesting watch ..peter schiff aka  mr anti bitcoin.
 

tbf though hes not wrong in the slightest

im telling u now … a 2008 style financial crash isnt an impossibility in the next few years.. cos something has to give either borrowing/spending , further v painful interest rate hikes, which would probably cause a further recessions or inflation continues to rise year on year making the recent cost of living crisis look like a picnic 

 

[cstand]

On 11/04/2024 at 23:01, NottsRam77 said:

A global macro financial assessment and An interesting watch ..peter schiff aka  mr anti bitcoin.
 

tbf though hes not wrong in the slightest

im telling u now … a 2008 style financial crash isnt an impossibility in the next few years.. cos something has to give either borrowing/spending , further v painful interest rate hikes, which would probably cause a further recessions or inflation continues to rise year on year making the recent cost of living crisis look like a picnic 

 

Peter Schiff is a long term value investor that’s why he dislikes BTC.

Price is what you pay value is what you get.

BTC is a highly speculative digital asset it’s best traded as @Comrade 86as already explained.

The hardest part of investing is knowing when to sell when you have a big profit but think it will go higher. 

I once had a massive profit in a penny share  which halved before I sold thinking it would recover on the way down,  this maybe the last time BTC crashes never to recover again.

You really need an exit strategy to take profit.

This is more of the video you posted and explains why Saylor never wants debate with Schiff.

 

 

 

Edited April 13 by cstand

[NottsRam77]

4 hours ago, cstand said:

Peter Schiff is a long term value investor that’s why he dislikes BTC.

Price is what you pay value is what you get.

BTC is a highly speculative digital asset it’s best traded as @Comrade 86as already explained.

The hardest part of investing is knowing when to sell when you have a big profit but think it will go higher. 

I once had a massive profit in a penny share  which halved before I sold thinking it would recover on the way down,  this maybe the last time BTC crashes never to recover again.

You really need an exit strategy to take profit.

This is more of the video you posted and explains why Saylor never wants debate with Schiff.

 

 

 

Have u seen the saylor / schiff debate ??

its epic.

i mean goldies and bitcoiners do actually have a lot in common, they just have one very obvious difference in belief as to which asset is the superior. But both parties agree on a helluva lot of ideas, as per said debate between saylpr and schiff.

totally agree re exit strategy, mine exists in life goals, as weve discussed, mortgage etc. 

im not sure about the best policy is trading btc .. i mean if u bought and held 10 years ago ur winning … try and trade it? Well ur a better man than me if u can do that .. as much as i wish i was good enough to do so lol

[NottsRam77]

I think it was this time last week i said that the pound had slipped from 1.37 to 1.27 against the dollar in the last 3-4 years 

down to 1.24 since last week 

when a strong asset goes face to face with a weak asset 

 

[cstand]

9 hours ago, NottsRam77 said:

I think it was this time last week i said that the pound had slipped from 1.37 to 1.27 against the dollar in the last 3-4 years 

down to 1.24 since last week 

when a strong asset goes face to face with a weak asset 

 

Forget he is snake oil salesman.

After admitting false accounting in microstrategy he lost 6 billion dollars in a single day during the dot com bubble.

BTC down 6.6% in last 24hrs still think it’s a store of value?

Edited April 13 by cstand

[NottsRam77]

26 minutes ago, cstand said:

Forget he is snake oil salesman.

After admitting false accounting in microstrategy he lost 6 billion dollars in a single day during the dot com bubble.

BTC down 6.6% in last 24hrs still think it’s a store of value?

Erm check the news, do u know iran has launched missiles at israel ?

Stock markets are closed so cant react monday will be interesting

and yes … i do think itd a store of value, Why wouldnt i? .. a market tanks upon news of more war in the world shocker 😂

Please Ask me the same question in 12 months time 👍

 

Edited April 13 by NottsRam77