Rev Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 21 minutes ago, Chris Mills said: Got to make it interesting somehow I guess! Anyone can plod along with a 7% return per annum and grow their money but I guess everyone dreams of hitting the big one! Good idea I agree would be to have a separate account with some money you don't mind losing as you did. Timing is everything when buying shares, last year the missus did a report on CurrysPCworld, part of the report included the fact that £1000 two years ago yielded a slight loss, but £1000 one year ago near doubled your money! Good luck with your punting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 5 hours ago, Chris Mills said: Now I'm pretty new to this, haven't actually started trading yet other than a few bits and bobs I already had before taking a real interest, but Danaher (DHR) has caught my eye. Lots of the company's focus seems to be on electrical technology/environment which are clearly going to be large markets going forwards and whilst you can't use past performance to indicate future performance it seems as though there has been a 10000% gain since the 80s when the company was formed. I read however that the company is to be split into two next year. Not sure how this affects any investments? Can someone shed some light? If you check their past history, you will find this is the 3rd time they have done this and kind a following a blueprint now. Only had a quick look, not my kind of stock, but S.P puts it in a nutshell. The analysts stateside are fairly bullish for that reason, but personally I take them with a pinch of salt. The key thing about Analysts is the first 4 letters, very often they talk their own book and get it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 21 minutes ago, Zag zig said: AIM is a casino, but you can find winners, I've hit a few, also had a fair few losers go to zero and learned a lot in my early days in the process. Remember AIM is the Wild West of the financial markets, lightly regulated, directors are like pigs in a trough, one minute a stock is doing well then boom along comes a placing, shareholders are canon fodder to market makers I such situations. It's not all about research no matter what anyone tells you, much of it is mental, by that market psychology, being able to ride the bumps, real big bumps and knowing when to take profits Reality is for all its faults, it's no different to say the TSX-venture exchange in Canada, heard plenty moan about regulators and stitch ups there etc. Im not going to give examples of make stock suggestions, but let me make a practical suggestion, if you're serious about trading, set yourself a dummy account, have a practice and see how you get on. Absolutely right about plodding on with 7% returns, some fund managers are lucky if they get that some years and anyone can make money in a bull market; the real trick/skill is doing it in volatile markets. Hope you do well. Yep - I'm not going to be putting any real money up for a while, getting some more literature first. Want to give myself a chance at least. Any decent sites that you recommend that you can use "play money" on? I set up an Investopedia Simulator account but don't really like how it looks. Would be nice to get a feel without putting any of my own cash up in the mean time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 21 minutes ago, Zag zig said: AIM is a casino, but you can find winners, I've hit a few, also had a fair few losers go to zero and learned a lot in my early days in the process. Remember AIM is the Wild West of the financial markets, lightly regulated, directors are like pigs in a trough, one minute a stock is doing well then boom along comes a placing, shareholders are canon fodder to market makers I such situations. It's not all about research no matter what anyone tells you, much of it is mental, by that market psychology, being able to ride the bumps, real big bumps and knowing when to take profits Reality is for all its faults, it's no different to say the TSX-venture exchange in Canada, heard plenty moan about regulators and stitch ups there etc. Im not going to give examples of make stock suggestions, but let me make a practical suggestion, if you're serious about trading, set yourself a dummy account, have a practice and see how you get on. Absolutely right about plodding on with 7% returns, some fund managers are lucky if they get that some years and anyone can make money in a bull market; the real trick/skill is doing it in volatile markets. Hope you do well. Couldn't have put it better. I found that when I started to apply the fundamentals or any kind of investing logic to AIM then I'd lose, pretty much without fail. All well then...wham...directors turn the screw. My punts were all the big scorers, totally driven by the herd mentality. Its all about controlling your emotions in that market and acting rationally... nothing can be a substitute for having your own money on the table and experiencing it. I think I learned I wasn't cut out for trading as I could never detach myself enough to act completely rationally. I was just lucky I had some big scores in the beginning and I learned the lesson with paper profits. Losing over £50k on paper in not much more than a few weeks should sober anybody up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 47 minutes ago, Chris Mills said: Yep - I'm not going to be putting any real money up for a while, getting some more literature first. Want to give myself a chance at least. Any decent sites that you recommend that you can use "play money" on? I set up an Investopedia Simulator account but don't really like how it looks. Would be nice to get a feel without putting any of my own cash up in the mean time. Some of the nominee brokers used to do so, from memory the old Share Centre and Selftrade did. Not for everybody but you could look at The Naked Trader site a lt of beginners like him for his basic language, but he too has something to sell, albeit in a nice smiley way, with tea and toast. Much of investing or trading depends on your attitude to risk or trading style, if you want to take something from others to find yourself Jack Schwager is a useful reference, if only because he spent time explaining and exploring the ways of some of the brightest traders. One more U.K focussed, try a similar collection of ideas in 1 book by Guy Thomas called Free Capital. I've met a couple of those interviewed and they are shrewd guys, but nobody gets it right all the time and if you venture on to the shark infested bulletin boards, my sole advice is if anyone professes to, run a mile from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, Chris Mills said: Yep - I'm not going to be putting any real money up for a while, getting some more literature first. Want to give myself a chance at least. Any decent sites that you recommend that you can use "play money" on? I set up an Investopedia Simulator account but don't really like how it looks. Would be nice to get a feel without putting any of my own cash up in the mean time. I used to play the FOREX markets with bullbearings.co.uk, had a bit of a play with stocks from time to time. Mostly, just to try stuff out before I put my own money down. Used to quite like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted November 23, 2015 Share Posted November 23, 2015 1 hour ago, SillyBilly said: Couldn't have put it better. I found that when I started to apply the fundamentals or any kind of investing logic to AIM then I'd lose, pretty much without fail. All well then...wham...directors turn the screw. My punts were all the big scorers, totally driven by the herd mentality. Its all about controlling your emotions in that market and acting rationally... nothing can be a substitute for having your own money on the table and experiencing it. I think I learned I wasn't cut out for trading as I could never detach myself enough to act completely rationally. I was just lucky I had some big scores in the beginning and I learned the lesson with paper profits. Losing over £50k on paper in not much more than a few weeks should sober anybody up. You know I could spend a lot of time replying to your posts, they are far too good, but firstly in all honesty usually I'm on a crappy iPad in hotels reading forums these days and it's hard to post on it and secondly I get bored doing the detail, but just want you to know I find myself nodding a lot at the stuff you post, so just occasionally I think I'll have to bite As for winning and losing I'm a little bit of a Livermore disciple and done likewise in my trading, sobering you say, well it's certainly been emotional! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 How much longer can Riyadh hold on to the currency peg? For the benefit of those unsure what the above shows, in the case of a pegged currency, in this case USD to Saudi Riyal, it should be a relatively smooth straight line across the page. Big jumps in volatility is telling of pressure (basically the market taking bets) the peg could break. The importance of that chart can't be overstated. Ever wondered why the Yanks tolerate the Saudis (despite them sponsoring terrorism)? That chart. Ever wondered why the oil price and every other commodity is priced in dollars. Principally, that chart. The "petrodollar" is a huge part of dollar hegemony and is a fundamental pillar that makes the dollar a formidable world reserve currency (this accrues benefits to the States). Saudi Arabia are insistent they won't stop the peg. Every peg in history has failed in time though, the latest being the Swiss Franc-Euro peg. European Exchange Rate Mechanism... Break the peg and IMO we'd see sub $30 oil and potentially $20 within a short space of time. You might think that is great but the North Sea would shut down at those prices and America I would imagine would to be close to having an equivalent of the sub prime crisis (the shale oilers have phenomenal debt that could not tolerate those prices). Millions of jobs at risk too. FWIW I have heard enough from the Saudis to say they will fight to the end to maintain the peg (but the pressure grows all the time as their reserves deplete) but it could be the starting point of the breakdown. Be interesting to watch. I was going to post a "things to look for in 2016" post - this would have been top! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris Mills Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 47 minutes ago, SillyBilly said: How much longer can Riyadh hold on to the currency peg? For the benefit of those unsure what the above shows, in the case of a pegged currency, in this case USD to Saudi Riyal, it should be a relatively smooth straight line across the page. Big jumps in volatility is telling of pressure (basically the market taking bets) the peg could break. The importance of that chart can't be overstated. Ever wondered why the Yanks tolerate the Saudis (despite them sponsoring terrorism)? That chart. Ever wondered why the oil price and every other commodity is priced in dollars. Principally, that chart. The "petrodollar" is a huge part of dollar hegemony and is a fundamental pillar that makes the dollar a formidable world reserve currency (this accrues benefits to the States). Saudi Arabia are insistent they won't stop the peg. Every peg in history has failed in time though, the latest being the Swiss Franc-Euro peg. European Exchange Rate Mechanism... Break the peg and IMO we'd see sub $30 oil and potentially $20 within a short space of time. You might think that is great but the North Sea would shut down at those prices and America I would imagine would to be close to having an equivalent of the sub prime crisis (the shale oilers have phenomenal debt that could not tolerate those prices). Millions of jobs at risk too. FWIW I have heard enough from the Saudis to say they will fight to the end to maintain the peg (but the pressure grows all the time as their reserves deplete) but it could be the starting point of the breakdown. Be interesting to watch. I was going to post a "things to look for in 2016" post - this would have been top! What happens when the peg fails to each currency? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 1 hour ago, Chris Mills said: What happens when the peg fails to each currency? Riyal would tumble, the dollar strength at the moment means the peg is getting very expensive for the Saudis to maintain. Remember a strong currency means your exports (in this case oil) priced in that currency are more expensive relative to the buying currency. A big over night devaluation suddenly makes the product which was expensive yesterday quite cheap today. None of this really matters so much as the political consequence, the above is the basic economics of it. What is critical is what this peg represents. It represents dollar hegemony. That world trade and the world's biggest commodity should be bought and sold in USD. That was the trade off the Americans gave the Saudis, the petrodollar for the security and propping up of the House of Saud. That was the deal. It could arguably change the power play in the Middle East, what wouldSaudi offer the States then? It is just a competitor to its own oil industry if it were to break. There would be no immediate threat to the dollar (it'd probably go up in the ensuing aftermath IMO) but its another invitation for oil to be bought and sold in Renminbi or Euros or any other currency - in other words it would threaten the long-term future of the dollar as the world's major reserve currency. I don't think I posted here but Russia and China are increasingly avoiding using the dollar in bilateral trade and using their own currencies, its these sort of events in isolation but combined which undermine the dollar. This will be a multi-decade story though but its interesting to watch history play out. China's currency now to be included in the SDR currency mix. China sets up alternative to the World bank, the AIIB which we fall into bed with. These are all threats to America. I personally don't think the Yanks will take these events lying down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 By the way, America relies on there being "demand" for USD, if you export a product or service, the local currency is converted into dollars to pay for it (large proportion of world trade), the dollar then may be converted back into the local currency of the seller. With all these transactions taking place the world over there is a huge demand for there being enough dollars to facilitate it, currencies are no different to the normal rules of supply and demand. Sometimes people struggle to get their head round that! This demand ties into the currency's value. What happens if everybody stops using these dollars? Where do they end up? You can't destroy them, they were created as debt. I am taking the above to the extreme here, the peg breaking is merely an event of many, over many years which has/would weaken the USD. As power shifts these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 Quick question @SillyBilly, the company I work for is currently undertaking a lot of work for a Singapore based subsidiary of a multi-national US based firm, for which we're paid in dollars. The monies received are being held in a US dollar account, is it worthwhile holding on to these to convert back to sterling, or should we convert at every opportunity? The amount held doesn't affect cash flow, is it worth holding on to the money as dollars for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 24, 2015 Share Posted November 24, 2015 43 minutes ago, reveldevil said: Quick question @SillyBilly, the company I work for is currently undertaking a lot of work for a Singapore based subsidiary of a multi-national US based firm, for which we're paid in dollars. The monies received are being held in a US dollar account, is it worthwhile holding on to these to convert back to sterling, or should we convert at every opportunity? The amount held doesn't affect cash flow, is it worth holding on to the money as dollars for now? Personally wouldn't think there is too much in it. But FWIW I would back the dollar to strengthen over sterling over the next few months so if the money is just going to sit around in sterling once converted, might as well hold it. Today Yellen was hinting again at rate hikes which is another strong tip to the dollar, meanwhile Carney appears on Bloomberg talking wet as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 TC cuts off the table altogether so a U-turn from George. Quite savage cuts to local councils and government departments disguised by some of the headline give-aways though and huge "efficiency savings" in the NHS. Worries me we're chucking more money at developers who have up until now proven they are effectively land banks. And more selling off public assets/land, you can only sell the family silver once. The positives are we're not going to be borrowing £80 bn this year but £73.5 bn which suggests the government's clamping down on tax avoiders is working. I am struggling to see where the cuts can keep on coming from now though, we can claw a bit more back in tax again but ultimately to break even or post a surplus (assuming growth does remain constant) a large proportion of that deficit reduction would be further cuts, to what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 Nice to see that the pension increase goes ahead in full. That equates to two bottles of Belgian beer extra per week for the memsahib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovis aries Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 5 minutes ago, eddie said: Nice to see that the pension increase goes ahead in full. That equates to two bottles of Belgian beer extra per week for the memsahib. Is that after 20% tax or before ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eddie Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 1 minute ago, Ovis aries said: Is that after 20% tax or before ?. She voted Tory, so we can assume that she will avoid tax altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramarena Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 4 hours ago, SillyBilly said: TC cuts off the table altogether so a U-turn from George. Quite savage cuts to local councils and government departments disguised by some of the headline give-aways though and huge "efficiency savings" in the NHS. Worries me we're chucking more money at developers who have up until now proven they are effectively land banks. And more selling off public assets/land, you can only sell the family silver once. The positives are we're not going to be borrowing £80 bn this year but £73.5 bn which suggests the government's clamping down on tax avoiders is working. I am struggling to see where the cuts can keep on coming from now though, we can claw a bit more back in tax again but ultimately to break even or post a surplus (assuming growth does remain constant) a large proportion of that deficit reduction would be further cuts, to what? The big worry about all this is that the OBR conjured up improved tax receipt figures with new modelling, just in time for the Autumn Statement. The OBR have a history of being wrong yet have handed the Chancellor a big chunk of money to get out of the TC debacle, the OBR admitted today that it got the VAT take completely wrong. I also note that he has to now go to the Commons to ask for permission to breach his own welfare cap after only a couple of months. Interesting to see further hits to BTL, could this see BTL investment dry up now? The general gist of this seems to be that he seems to be passing the buck onto councils (2% council tax rise, business rate rises) and private businesses (apprenticeship levy), leaving councils and businesses to carry the can if things go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ketteringram Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 The hits to BTL, very welcome, but way overdue, and still don't go anywhere near far enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SillyBilly Posted November 25, 2015 Share Posted November 25, 2015 21 minutes ago, Ramarena said: The big worry about all this is that the OBR conjured up improved tax receipt figures with new modelling, just in time for the Autumn Statement. The OBR have a history of being wrong yet have handed the Chancellor a big chunk of money to get out of the TC debacle, the OBR admitted today that it got the VAT take completely wrong. I also note that he has to now go to the Commons to ask for permission to breach his own welfare cap after only a couple of months. Interesting to see further hits to BTL, could this see BTL investment dry up now? The general gist of this seems to be that he seems to be passing the buck onto councils (2% council tax rise, business rate rises) and private businesses (apprenticeship levy), leaving councils and businesses to carry the can if things go wrong. Yes, heard there were some further hits to BTL, think he is clearly trying to make it less attractive without popping the bubble. Haven't had time to look at the details yet so other than the headlines not gone through it, sitting some exams tomorrow so really ought to be revising! Interesting comments about the OBR, well worth looking into. I must admit I was quite surprised by the figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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