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Derbyshire CCC in 2014


Ovis aries

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Shiv Chanderpaul returning to the Caribbean , great player, but this season a bit of a luxury.

You need your overseas and supposedly best player to be available every game,

Hope Derbyshire bear this in mind when signing someone for next season.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I watched a bit of this tonight and was mystified by a new statistic called WASP, hovering (no pun intended) at 18% during Gloucestershires innings.

 

I can now reveal that this is the 'Winning And Score Predictor', for limited over games.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Albert was involved. For your delictation, here's the formula.

 

V(b,w) =r(b,w) +p(b,w) V(b+1,w+1) +(1-p(b,w)))V(b+1,w)

 

Since V(b*,w)=0 where b* equals the maximum number of legitimate deliveries allowed in the innings (300 in a 50 over game), we can solve the model backwards. This means that the estimates for V(b,w) in rare situations depends only slightly on the estimated runs and probability of a wicket on that ball, and mostly on the values of V(b+1,w) and V(b+1,w+1), which will be mostly determined by thick data points.

 

At the point I saw it,Glous therefore had an 18% chance of winning so there you are, total accuracy. Well done lads, we qualified for the next round despite the berks at HQ docking us 2 points for an allegedly dodgy pitch in a different competition in a different season. Justice.

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