Ambitious Posted May 9, 2014 Share Posted May 9, 2014 A better performance please. 40% possession in the first leg is poor. We need to get our form back for the final. I agree, I'd like to see a confident strong show of force. If we go out and hang on to our lead, and it works. Brilliant. The final will seem like another mountain to climb though, If we play our usual dominant game, win the game outright - we'll be confident going into the final. I want to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 A better performance please. 40% possession in the first leg is poor. We need to get our form back for the final. I guarantee that possession stats are completely relevant to the scoreline... Do you honestly think that Derby would have had only 40% if we were losing the game? Other than the World's top clubs, possession stats are completely linked to how the game is going in the moment. If you have a run through our games, you will find that our highest possession stats are when we were losing and the opposition were happy to camp without the ball... Even Real Madrid occassionally get less than 50% because they're happy to counter. The longer Sunday stays 0-0, or Derby take the lead, then Brighton will dominate possession - more than 50%. I'll put my mortgage on it. It's just the way football works. Even West Ham United and Stoke City dominate possession when they're losing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Prime example. Stoke City 0-1 Tottenham Hotspur Spurs ( a possession team) went 1-0 up after 33 mins, playing against a direct Stoke City side. Despite Stoke going down to 10 men after 52 mins, they still dominated possession 51% - 49% http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/27084831 Now, if Spurs were losing 1-0 and Stoke were still down to 10 men, you could guarantee that those stats would be more like 40% - 60% at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 An even bigger example... West Ham United 0-2 Man United Man United went 2-0 up before half-time... WHU had to chase the game. Possession stats. WHU 53% - 47% Man United. A Sam Allardyce side out-doing Man United in possession? Unbelievable. But it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CumbrianRam Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Even Barca "http://i61.tinypic.com/2u8vvae" alt="2u8vvae"> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Yep, whilst it's nice to dominate possession, a lot of the time it's based entirely on how the game is going. With the likes of Russell, Ward, Bryson Dawkins and even Sammon - these guys need space behind the defence to run at and they can hurt teams on the counter. We've struggled this season against teams playing a very deep backline, I'm surprised Brighton didn't adopt such tactics last night as they were slow at the back and Rusell and Ward just burned them for pace on a number of occasions. A lot of our wins this season (and goals) has been as a result of teams getting hit on the counter against us. Watford in the last minute springs to mind - cheaply losing the ball in midfield and Sammon (who in fairness is pretty quick) against the last man well there was only one winner. And how can anyone forget. Derby County 5-0 Nottingham Forest. Possession: 43% - 57% http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/26589245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Prime example. Stoke City 0-1 Tottenham Hotspur Spurs ( a possession team) went 1-0 up after 33 mins, playing against a direct Stoke City side. Despite Stoke going down to 10 men after 52 mins, they still dominated possession 51% - 49% http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/27084831 Now, if Spurs were losing 1-0 and Stoke were still down to 10 men, you could guarantee that those stats would be more like 40% - 60% at least. 51% possession is hardly dominating. 60 / 40 is. We have a tendency to let the opposition play too much sometimes. As for the forest game possession stats, i never believed that figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 51% possession is hardly dominating. 60 / 40 is. We have a tendency to let the opposition play too much sometimes. As for the forest game possession stats, i never believed that figure. I did, they had the ball for the majority of the game and you have to remember our goals came from quick attacks - not long spells of possession. 60 - 40 is normal, I'm really not sure why fans are making a big deal out of the possession stats. I'm sorry to be quite blunt with you buddy, I don't purposely want to come across as arrogant or anything, but it's pretty standard for losing teams to dominate possession and some by quite a 60/40 margins - especially between two equal sides. Obviously the likes of Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal etc. dominate whoever, but we were the away team who took the lead. Why else would we have the lion shares woth of possession against Forest in their own backyard when chasing a 1-0 defeat whereas Forest had 57% possession against us when losing 5-0. Go and run through the stats and I can guarantee you there is a direct link between possession and whichever team is winning/losing. Want further proof? Burnley (winning and better than Brighton) vs 10 man Derby (losing) possession 45% - 55% Burnley (losing) vs Middlesbrough (winning) 67% - 33% No team has such swings in such positions unless it's purely results-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 i see your point , Bris , so on that basis i would imagine the team that is losing would not only have the most possession, but would also cover more ground on most occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 i see your point , Bris , so on that basis i would imagine the team that is losing would not only have the most possession, but would also cover more ground on most occasions. Yep... They say it's so tiring to go chase the ball, but if you have a rigid formation and basically just 'park the bus' it's bloody tiring for the opposition who are forever inter-linking. Going back to that Chelsea vs Barcelona CL semi-final at the Nou Camp. The Barca players were out on their feet at the end as they did all the running, Chelsea just sat their and moved from side to side. Barca must have ran almost double the amount than Chelsea that night chasing the game. Linking back to Brighton, they certainly looked like the team making all the running yesterday - must have been demorilising to come off the pitch knackered like that and losing the game. Bodes well for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Go and run through the stats and I can guarantee you there is a direct link between possession and whichever team is winning/losing. Leeds 45 derby 55 away draw Derby 64 watford 36 big home win Derby 57 barnsley 33 home win Doncaster 42 derby 58 away win Derby 72 huddersfield 28 big home win Um...... Seems to be generally the opposite of what you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Those possession stats also disguise where that possession was. When we've had high possession this season, it's seemed to be around the opponents box, where we've always been on the verge of creating something. When we took an early lead vs Qpr, we conceeded lots of possession and they didn't really do much with it. We can easily revert between high possession effective attacking and a dangerous counter attacking system. We probably need Hughes for the possession game and Hendrick for the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 i see your point , Bris , so on that basis i would imagine the team that is losing would not only have the most possession, but would also cover more ground on most occasions. See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Leeds 45 derby 55 away draw Derby 64 watford 36 big home win Derby 57 barnsley 33 home win Doncaster 42 derby 58 away win Derby 72 huddersfield 28 big home win Um...... Seems to be generally the opposite of what you say. Yeh, so one game was a draw, another was against Watford who were losing/drawing to until the last 10 mins, Huddersfield down to 9 men, Donny and Barnsley are perhaps against what I say but both got relegated for being utterly terrible. Only two of those games really go against what I say and I could give you hundreds of games in return to back me up... You also really need to take into account when the goals were scored. That Watford one for instance was a big win, but we never had the lead until the 80th plus minute (bar something like 10 mins in the 2nd half) and so on. Also with Huddersfield, yes we won the game but they scored first and opted to defend for the rest of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 Those possession stats also disguise where that possession was. Yes..... If you combine possession with where the action was..... Brighton 60 derby 40 - them attacking / action in our half Leeds 45 derby 55 - us passing it around at the back Derby 64 watford 36 big home win - us attacking / action in their half Derby 57 barnsley 33 home win - us attacking / action in their half Doncaster 42 derby 58 away win - us passing it around at the back Derby 72 huddersfield 28 big home win - us attacking / action in their half So.....brighton away was the exception not the rule. Despite a great result, they dominated possession in our half. That combination would normally see the attacking side win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 ....and wasn't Lee Grant Man of the Match? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 For arguements sake lets look at Brighton and their home games shall we... possession in brackets. Brighton 1-2 Derby (60-40) Brighton 0-2 Boro (62-38) Brighton 0-2 Ipswich (65-35) Brighton 2-0 QPR (44-56) Brighton 1-1 Reading (Brighton take early lead, Reading equalise second half) (42-58) Brighton 1-2 Wigan (63-37) Brighton 3-1 Leicester (50-50) Brighton 1-2 Barnsley (53-47) Brighton 2-0 Burnley (49-51) The same Burnley side that got around 30 against us but beat us 3-0 There are obviously a few which break the rule, but this is with Brighton who is a genuine possession team at home who in games which they've won haven't domianted possessio and games which they've lost dominated alot. They've won a fair lot of games 1-0 with late goals and these genuinely favour possession to the home side, which they show. But if you want another classic. Derby vs Blackburn 1-1 Blackburn chase the game and dominate possession Blackburn vs Dertby 1-1 Derby chase the game and dominate possession Wigan 1-3 Derby - Wigan more possession Derby 0-1 Wigan - Derby more possession Forest 1-0 Derby - Derby more possession Derby 5-0 Forest - Forest more possession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 ....and wasn't Lee Grant Man of the Match? even if their possession was in the attacking third, i still thought they weren't that dangerous in the second half. Grants great save was a mishit and they really struggled to create anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 RamNut you're making it sound a lot different to how it was imo. I didn't like how far we sat back. It was too deep and the pressure we put on the ball wasn't intense enough high enough up the pitch imo. We let them come a bit too close before we pushed them back. But Brighton are a good possession team. We were a bit rabbit in the headlights for the first 20. But once we took the lead I don't think we really needed to risk trying to stop them playing. Let them play. They were confident and comfortable on the ball and settled quicker than us. Why try to fight that when the lack penetration. Grant made two excellent saves. But it's not like he was super busy. The middle of the 3 saves everyone talks about was a save we'd expect him to make. We'd be angry if that'd gone in. They didn't have us rocking. They played a nice passing game infront of us. Had a couple of good efforts. I agree we sat too deep but the gameplan to let them have possession and hit them on the break seemed sound to me. It became apparent right from kick off that they were going to be better on the ball for this game. Real Madrid wouldn't try to outplay Bayern (back to that old example but it's a famous one). If we settle faster on Sunday we might be able to outplay them. We aren't vastly superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted May 10, 2014 Share Posted May 10, 2014 RamNut you're making it sound a lot different to how it was imo. I didn't like how far we sat back. It was too deep and the pressure we put on the ball wasn't intense enough high enough up the pitch imo. We let them come a bit too close before we pushed them back. But Brighton are a good possession team. We were a bit rabbit in the headlights for the first 20. But once we took the lead I don't think we really needed to risk trying to stop them playing. Let them play. They were confident and comfortable on the ball and settled quicker than us. Why try to fight that when the lack penetration. Grant made two excellent saves. But it's not like he was super busy. The middle of the 3 saves everyone talks about was a save we'd expect him to make. We'd be angry if that'd gone in. They didn't have us rocking. They played a nice passing game infront of us. Had a couple of good efforts. I agree we sat too deep but the gameplan to let them have possession and hit them on the break seemed sound to me. It became apparent right from kick off that they were going to be better on the ball for this game. Real Madrid wouldn't try to outplay Bayern (back to that old example but it's a famous one). If we settle faster on Sunday we might be able to outplay them. We aren't vastly superior. All i'm saying is that we let them have too much possession in our half. This was most notable in the first 20 minutes when we conceded. We seemed to improve after that but we definitely lost the first 2 rounds. Towards half time we retained possession better and higher up the pitch....and scored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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