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Par for the course

Albert

By Albert
in Derby County Forum

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Albert

Albert

Posted
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A lot of people are talking about our position as essentially stagnant, but what usually goes on after relegation. Let's forget everything else that goes on around clubs that have been relegation, the players who stay, the financial side of things etc, and just focus on what happened to clubs. Using all the relegation teams from the 2001-02 seasons through to 2006-07 season the results are that:

Of the sample set of 6 seasons, of the 18 sides that were relegated during this time, 8 have failed to play in the Premier League (44%) during the sample time (5-10 seasons) whilst 7 have played in League One (39%) and 3 hadn't budged an inch (17%). The "average" team for this time for a standardised 5 seasons had spent 1.2 seasons in the Premier League, 3.3 in the Championship and 0.5 in League One. The average team over that standardised 5 season period had been promoted from the Championship 0.62 times, relegated from the Premier League again 0.35 times, relegated from the Championship 0.29 times and promoted back to the Championship 0.23 times.

Of course, the next question is why this time period? Including teams which have played 4 or less seasons since seems a tad odd as there hasn't been sufficient time to see what has happened with them at this time, at least on a time scale that many talk about with the club right now.

So, what does this all say then about what "par" should be for a club, ignoring all other factors. Considering that 39% of the teams in this sample had tasted League One action, it's quite clear that actually remaining in the Championship after relegation is hardly a given. In fact, a similar number had tasted League One action to those who had returned to the Premier League, this including data from teams that had 5-10 seasons since the relegation counted. From this it is clear that spending 5 seasons down without any movement is not actually that unusual, and especially considering that our own performance in the Premier League was worse than any other team used in this analysis, the fact that unlike 39% of the teams we didn't end up going down another division is something worth noting here. Overall it is hard to see a failure to return to the Premier League within 5 years as a failure in the context of other sides' experience with relegation from the Premier League.

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Stive Pesley

Stive Pesley

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Some good points there (although give it a minute and you'll be called a Clough apologist I'm sure and accused of being happy to settle for mediocrity)

 

I think that realistically Clough has done wonders to turnm the ship around and get it moving, albeit very slowly, in the right direction.

 

The problem we've got now is that people have worked out we're going in the right direction and have been for some time, we're just not going quick enough...

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ronnieronalde

ronnieronalde

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A lot of people are talking about our position as essentially stagnant, but what usually goes on after relegation. Let's forget everything else that goes on around clubs that have been relegation, the players who stay, the financial side of things etc, and just focus on what happened to clubs. Using all the relegation teams from the 2001-02 seasons through to 2006-07 season the results are that:

Of the sample set of 6 seasons, of the 18 sides that were relegated during this time, 8 have failed to play in the Premier League (44%) during the sample time (5-10 seasons) whilst 7 have played in League One (39%) and 3 hadn't budged an inch (17%). The "average" team for this time for a standardised 5 seasons had spent 1.2 seasons in the Premier League, 3.3 in the Championship and 0.5 in League One. The average team over that standardised 5 season period had been promoted from the Championship 0.62 times, relegated from the Premier League again 0.35 times, relegated from the Championship 0.29 times and promoted back to the Championship 0.23 times.

Of course, the next question is why this time period? Including teams which have played 4 or less seasons since seems a tad odd as there hasn't been sufficient time to see what has happened with them at this time, at least on a time scale that many talk about with the club right now.

So, what does this all say then about what "par" should be for a club, ignoring all other factors. Considering that 39% of the teams in this sample had tasted League One action, it's quite clear that actually remaining in the Championship after relegation is hardly a given. In fact, a similar number had tasted League One action to those who had returned to the Premier League, this including data from teams that had 5-10 seasons since the relegation counted. From this it is clear that spending 5 seasons down without any movement is not actually that unusual, and especially considering that our own performance in the Premier League was worse than any other team used in this analysis, the fact that unlike 39% of the teams we didn't end up going down another division is something worth noting here. Overall it is hard to see a failure to return to the Premier League within 5 years as a failure in the context of other sides' experience with relegation from the Premier League.

Yeah but no but yeah but no.

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notts_ram

notts_ram

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Overall it is hard to see a failure to return to the Premier League within 5 years as a failure in the context of other sides' experience with relegation from the Premier League.

 

I hear what you're saying Albert, my only comment would that you are using success and failure as relative measures about your standardised normalisation. Playing devil's advocate does this mean then we are doing very well being in the Championship for 5 years or are we doing poorly if we consider other clubs have been promoted during your sampling period?

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Albert

Albert

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I hear what you're saying Albert, my only comment would that you are using success and failure as relative measures about your standardised normalisation. Playing devil's advocate does this mean then we are doing very well being in the Championship for 5 years or are we doing poorly if we consider other clubs have been promoted during your sampling period?

I guess the question works in reserve as well, are we doing well considering a similar number ended up in League One over the sampling period?
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notts_ram

notts_ram

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I guess the question works in reserve as well, are we doing well considering a similar number ended up in League One over the sampling period?

 

Agreed. Not criticising your work Albert, but it is very broadbrush - for example if I earned the average wage in the UK I would say that relatively I am doing OK - however if I were a qualified doctor then I would be infact not  be doing very well at all. The same goes for your analysis, if the club I supported stayed in the Championship for 5 years then this would be measured as the norm, however if my wage bill was the highest in the Championship and I had the largest squad then this would be deemed as abject failure.

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Albert

Albert

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Agreed. Not criticising your work Albert, but it is very broadbrush - for example if I earned the average wage in the UK I would say that relatively I am doing OK - however if I were a qualified doctor then I would be infact not  be doing very well at all. The same goes for your analysis, if the club I supported stayed in the Championship for 5 years then this would be measured as the norm, however if my wage bill was the highest in the Championship and I had the largest squad then this would be deemed as abject failure.

That was the point really. We seem to make all these wild comparisons, but generally we cherry pick out the clubs who have done well. I thought it might just be interesting to think about it with everything else ignored for a moment. It really is a mixed bag of clubs.
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ChaddesdenRam

ChaddesdenRam

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Derby County constantly punch above their weight every season.

 

Wage spend dictates league position not spend on transfers FACT. check the stats if you want to. There are usually anomalous clubs sometimes but if you look at the premier league every single year the wage bill dictates wage bill. 

 

We should finish in the bottom 3 if our wage is in the bottom 3 which it apparently is. 

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