Ghost of Clough

Bird wanted to move on, Warne was happy with it being a sale with loan back

Are you suggesting Warne has made us weaker or stronger?

What will our starting 11 be tonight?

You're right - there are many variables and it is 'just a stat'. But, it does take account of these somewhat by giving the average liklihood of a player scoring agaisnt an average defence with an average goalkeeper, etc.. It still comes down to how you use the stat, just like any other stat - be in possession, passing, tackles, whatever tickles your fancy... Nothing beats watching a game and it's the only realy way you can enjoy the game. But, what if you can't watch all 552 League 1 games to make a fair judgement? How do you compare how you're doing with other teams? You could compare us against them based on how they played against us, but that's when you get some people saying Peterborough are the best L1 side of all time, whilst some of their own fans are worried they won't even finish top 6. In a lot of cases, stats assist with making a more balanced opinion than just what you see with your eyes. We see "XXXX doesn't run enough" all the time. Well if you saw their running stats, you may think differently. Interpretation is also important. Which is better: 10 shots or 2 shots? Now what if both had a total xG of 1 (10 shots of 0.1 xG vs 2 shots of 0.5 xG)? Whilst the xG suggests both teams should have both scored 1, there's actually a 75% probability that the team with just 2 shots has scored, whilst there's only a 65% probability that the team with 10 shots has scored. It's not until that team has had 13 shots worth 0.1 xG (1.3 xG total) where they both have a 75% probability of a goal. Team 1 only need 5 shots (2.5 xG) to have more than a 95% probability of having scored. Team 2 needs 30 shots (3.0 xG) for the same probability.

The highest wage bill Warne had in L1 was £6.5m (inclusive of non-playing staff). The budget at Derby is double that.

Bolton - Their 2 best players from last season were only on loan and have failed to replace them with equally as good players. Barnsley - Lost their manager who was a significant step up from the previous 4 managers they had, so were isntantly weaker. They also sold their keeper and 2 best CBs, all have been replaced with worse players. Peterborough - Reduced their squad size so much that a RB being recalled and a winger being injured is massively derailing their season. Tried to sell their top scorer, failed, then dropped him to a backup option. Sold/released 3 of their top 5 scorers from last season, one of which was also their joint 2nd top assister with another of those being sold being their 5th top assister. They had a massive rebuild job to do over the summer

xG is a useful tool if used correctly. Give Chris Martin and Connor Sammon exactly the same chance and they'll have the same xG, but one of them will be more liekly to score as he's a better finisher. Unsurprisingly, the teams who create a high proportion of chances for their best finishers also outperform their xG as a team, whilst the team creating chances for poorer finishers underperform. xG is a better metric than shots as it gives meaning to the shot - the chance of scoring from 1 yard out will be significantly greater than 40 yards out.

Results have obviously dropped off a bit since we played Oxford. However, every team will have a bad spell, just like they'll have an exceptional spell. Since our poor start, we've been a top 2 side. As our squad continues to return from a range of injuries, I have no doubt that our form will improve again.

Gallagher or Ward-Prowse?

Preston haven't finished lower than 14th since they were promoted in 2015 (best finish was 7th). Their wagw bill last season was £21m (down from a peak of £24m). That's where we would be if we put all our extra revenue towards wages. Losses would also remain the same (excluding player sales), which I assume is a level Clowes is 'content' to maintain.

Stevenage were playing in L2 last season and are now 6th, equal to their highest ever finsoh in English football! Leyton Orient also promoted and are 9th. If a side can go from L2 to 6th, it shouldn't take much for a side to improve on a 7th place finish last season.

Without making player sales, we would have to pretty much half our wage bill or make sacrifices elsewhere - academy, maintenance, etc. Going sustainable in L1 without player sales would still give us a top half playing budget (just), but it would likely still be about £2m short of top 6. Burton won promotion in 15/16 on a £3.6m wage bill (total club). Rotherham had wage bills ranging from £5.8m to £6.5m in Warne's promotion seasons.

79 mins - Oduroh and Hawkins on for Bardell and Fornah 1-0 FT and we move 3 places up the table

53 mins - Fornah yellow 60 mins - West Brom make the first change of the game (CM for CM)

HT. 1-0 up. DRobinson and Bardell both picked up yellow not long after the goal.

34 mins - 1-0 KRobinson (assisted by Gibson-Hammond)

JThompson Bardell Bartley KRobinson Gill Gibson-Hammond DRobinson Fornah Moloney Weston Wheeldon Subs: Shattell, Bradley Johnson, Oduroh, Hawkins, Fapetu

Poor us. It's a miracle we're this far awaay from relegation with our pathetic c£14m wage bill. Warne should be manager of the year based on where we are in the league and the budget available to him. To help copare our amazing useof funds, Bolton and Charlton were only just above the £10m mark in their last set of accounts. No other current L1 was above that figure.

Rowett's style of play still varied. A bit of magic from Lawrence or Vydra. Nugent and Winnall pressing from the front, and Jerome to give us a target man for Forsyth to aim his crosses at. Weimann and Russell (until Jan) mixed it up on the wings. Warne gives us "pass to Hourihane who will pass it out to the right to get Mendez-Laing on the ball. Mendez-Laing will cross to Collins". It's all too predictable which contributes to it being boring to watch.

I think it comes down to a lack of clear plan on how signigns will fit into the side. We had the same in the summer byt signing 2 RWBs and a LB to play as wing backs. The LB struggles at LWB then the RWBs pick up injuries. We sign a RB, shift to 4 at the back and the LB looked settled when he eventually had a couple of starts. The RWBs no longer simply slot in the side as both lack defensive qualities Warne wants to see at RB, or are either not quick enough or lack end product to play at RW. Our CF targets varied in style. Mark Harris, Rhodes, etc.. No we've gone to 352 without a recognised LWB and only 1 forward, despite starting a winger at CF, having 2 wingers on the bench and another who has regularly played there this season.

Wildsmith Ward Nelson Cashin Elder Bird Adams Sibley Mendez-Laing Collins Blackett-Taylor Subs: JThompson, Nyambe, Bradley, Hourihane, LThompson, Wilson, Barkhuizen

'Only' 1 shot a game

Adams booked after getting pushed to the floor 😂

How is the ref allowing so much man handling in the area?

2 points off top with a game in hand!