Epsom Derby

[Comrade 86]

Stoutey's got a good one for the first time in yonks. Backing the favourite in the Derby is the express highway to the poor house but I'm thinking Sir Michael's horse will beat this lot with a bit to spare. Just praying old MafiaBob's not on it too, as he could stop a train ?

[Anag Ram]

4 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Stoutey's got a good one for the first time in yonks. Backing the favourite in the Derby is the express highway to the poor house but I'm thinking Sir Michael's horse will beat this lot with a bit to spare. Just praying old MafiaBob's not on it too, as he could stop a train ?

Stone Age mate, nailed on.

 

[Comrade 86]

5 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

Stone Age mate, nailed on.

 

Soon be favourite! Money pouring on it. GF already looking daggers at me so I'm likely heading to the doghouse in 5 minutes or so ?

[Anag Ram]

3 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Soon be favourite! Money pouring on it. GF already looking daggers at me so I'm likely heading to the doghouse in 5 minutes or so ?

Reason for the delay in the takeover. 
CK’s bid relies on the millions he has bet on the Derby ?

[Anag Ram]

Fair play. Hope you (and CK!) had a fortune on him.

I now have an awkward conversation with the wife ?

 

[Comrade 86]

2 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

Fair play. Hope you (and CK!) had a fortune on him.

I now have an awkward conversation with the wife ?

Different gravy wasn't he? After the pre-race 'tete-a-tete', there's been a distinct change of atmosphere Chez 86.

GF before the race...

Me after race...

GF now...

[Anag Ram]

Just now, 86 Hair Islands said:

Different gravy wasn't he? After the pre-race 'tete-a-tete', there's been a distinct change of atmosphere Chez 86.

GF before the race...

Me after race...

GF now...

Is that your knickers dropping?

[Comrade 86]

1 hour ago, Anag Ram said:

Is that your knickers dropping?

Indeed mate ? 

[Comrade 86]

Thought I'd bump this thread as today see's this year's race due off at the really weird time of 1.30 today - WTF is that about? Put the race back to where it should be please! 4.00PM ish has worked fine since 1780, after all! 

Not the biggest fan of standard flat racing, to be honest, but I do follow the pattern races pretty closely and obviously, the biggest of those for 3 year old colts (and fillies, though very rarely) is the Derby. It looks a very open affair this year and I'll not be getting heavily involved today as I backed Military Order the morning of the Lingfield Derby Trial, thinking his price would collapse if he won it. He did and it has, though I can't say I'm wildly confident. That said, if he runs in the first 4, I'll be making a modest profit and if he emulates his full brother Adayar, I'll be doing rather better. Fingers crossed!

As for the field, I suspect the 'Frankie factor' will see Arrest emerge as the favourite, but the one I may play to small stakes as an interesting EW bet is San Antonio at a whopping 33/1, with most firms paying out on 4 places (@1/5th of the odds). He's a bit to find on form with the principals, but he has a proper Derby pedigree and I can see him outrunning those odds. I'm probably wrong, but I fancy him as much as the supposed O'Brien first string, August Rodin. The latter arguably has the strongest piece of form in the book, but at 4/1 he does not look like value, so he can win without the burden of my cash on his back.

Pop up your own fancies here if you like and enjoy bragging rights later if your selection does the business. Remember folks, small stakes to keep it fun if you are not a form buff.

Good luck peeps!

86

 

Edited June 3, 2023 by 86 Hair Islands

[Malagaram]

45 minutes ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Thought I'd bump this thread as today see's this year's race due off at the really weird time of 1.30 today - WTF is that about? Put the race back to where it should be please! 4.00PM ish has worked fine since 1780, after all! 

Not the biggest fan of standard flat racing, to be honest, but I do follow the pattern races pretty closely and obviously, the biggest of those for 3 year old colts (and fillies, though very rarely) is the Derby. It looks a very open affair this year and I'll not be getting heavily involved today as I backed Military Order the morning of the Lingfield Derby Trial, thinking his price would collapse if he won it. He did and it has, though I can't say I'm wildly confident. That said, if he runs in the first 4, I'll be making a modest profit and if he emulates his full brother Adayar, I'll be doing rather better. Fingers crossed!

As for the field, I suspect the 'Frankie factor' will see Arrest emerge as the favourite, but the one I may play to small stakes as an interesting EW bet is San Antonio at a whopping 33/1, with most firms paying out on 4 places (@1/5th of the odds). He's a bit to find on form with the principals, but he has a proper Derby pedigree and I can see him outrunning those odds. I'm probably wrong, but I fancy him as much as the supposed O'Brien first string, August Rodin. The latter arguably has the strongest piece of form in the book, but at 4/1 he does not look like value, so he can win without the burden of my cash on his back.

Pop up your own fancies here if you like and enjoy bragging rights later if your selection does the business. Remember folks, small stakes to keep it fun if you are not a form buff.

Good luck peeps!

86

 

Did you forget it is the FA Cup final today at 3.00 pm,so the reason for moving the Derby start time is to accomodate that.

[Comrade 86]

11 minutes ago, Malagaram said:

Did you forget it is the FA Cup final today at 3.00 pm,so the reason for moving the Derby start time is to accomodate that.

Thanks Malaga - I had indeed forgotten!

Still annoyed tbh. My Derby day routine has been messed with, so still not a happy bunny! Ah well, the sun will be over the yard arm even earlier today 😆

[Comrade 86]

Heartbreak for Amo Racing who must have thought with half a furlong to travel they were going to land a Derby. In the end though, O'Brien swoops to conquer, yet again. Bloomin Irish! Worse still, I backed the winner in the Guineas where he ran like a house brick but he clearly needed a mile & 4f and was the best horse in the race. Flat racing, cha!

[Highgate]

10 hours ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Heartbreak for Amo Racing who must have thought with half a furlong to travel they were going to land a Derby. In the end though, O'Brien swoops to conquer, yet again. Bloomin Irish! Worse still, I backed the winner in the Guineas where he ran like a house brick but he clearly needed a mile & 4f and was the best horse in the race. Flat racing, cha!

You lot should stick to cricket and chasing cheese down hills. You are good at that sort of thing. Leave the Sport of Kings to us.  😆☘️

[Comrade 86]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

You lot should stick to cricket and chasing cheese down hills. You are good at that sort of thing. Leave the Sport of Kings to us.  😆☘️

Six wins in the last 25 years, with home based horses securing the other 19 races doesn't really scream dominance mate, but yeah, we're great at cheese rolling 🫢

[Highgate]

12 hours ago, 86 Hair Islands said:

Six wins in the last 25 years, with home based horses securing the other 19 races doesn't really scream dominance mate, but yeah, we're great at cheese rolling 🫢

Yeah, an unwarranted bout of triumphalism on my part..no doubt 😉.  Especially with regards to flat racing.  The success Irish trainers and owners are enjoying in the last couple of decades has really come about thanks to the booming blookstock industry here.  Some very generous (some might say dodgy) tax concessions back in 90s and 00s helped kickstart an industry that was on it's knees financially.  Whereas a few decades ago, basically all the best Irish bred horses were sold to Britain and beyond, now many can be kept for racing and breeding here, and Coolmore Stud is now the largest breeder of thoroughbred racehorses in the world. The impact of this investment on results has been dramatic.

Just like in football, money brings success. 

Not for me though, I still couldn't pick a winner if my life depended on it. 

 

 

[Comrade 86]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

Yeah, an unwarranted bout of triumphalism on my part..no doubt 😉.  Especially with regards to flat racing.  The success Irish trainers and owners are enjoying in the last couple of decades has really come about thanks to the booming blookstock industry here.  Some very generous (some might say dodgy) tax concessions back in 90s and 00s helped kickstart an industry that was on it's knees financially.  Whereas a few decades ago, basically all the best Irish bred horses were sold to Britain and beyond, now many can be kept for racing and breeding here, and Coolmore Stud is now the largest breeder of thoroughbred racehorses in the world. The impact of this investment on results has been dramatic.

Just like in football, money brings success. 

Not for me though, I still couldn't pick a winner if my life depended on it. 

Coolmore are the racing equivalent of Man City. There's no doubt that Aidan O'Brien is a master trainer, but I've seen pattern races in Ireland where every runner is a Coolmore horse. The same thing happens frequently with Willie Mullins on the NH circuit. Mullins makes O'Brien's exploits look half arsed to be honest.

I've no issue with it myself. I've stood in the Guinness tent with the Irish lads ripping the piss (in a funny way, not gloating) as they mop up 75% of the winners at the Cheltenham Festival each year. I get paid out the same money whether they're English or Irish and I love to see a good racehorse run wherever it hails from. That said, before kneeling at the Ballydoyle altar, one has to take into account that the first declarations stage for the Classics, O'Brien has more horses entered than the rest of the field combined. Even after the initial scratchings, Ballydoyle had 31 of the remaining 83 runners. Even Citeh can't claim that kind of advantage.