Life, the universe and everything.

[ladyram]

I’d probably go with Dumbo, Flipper, and Cheeta. But Lassie wasn’t all she was cracked up to be.

hehehehe

Dolphins and whales. Do they count?

[Albert]

returning to the Universe for a minute, did man really land on the moon? I watched a docu' on it the other day. Did they really do it? Why haven't they returned?

Well, yes they did land on the Moon. India and Japan have even taken pictures of the landing sites independently in the last few years if I remember correctly.

I've also never seen an argument for man not landing on the Moon that holds water past even a basic analysis.

As for why they haven't returned, it's not profitable and ultimately unmanned missions are safer, cheaper and a lot easier to explain when things go catastrophically wrong. Once all the hype died down and public interest in the landings fell off, of course they'd stop doing it.

[SillyBilly]

On the subject of doomsday and the Mayan prophecy, I believe NASA calculated there to be a 12% risk (risk varies according to the scientific body) of a massive solar flare within this next decade, as 2012/2013 is the end of the solar cycle (11 years) and due to some factors I don't pretend to know (possibly tilt, orbit of the celestial objects etc.) it fits that this upcoming period is the most likely time for such an event in a long while. In a nutshell, from point of origin of flare (Sun) to arriving at Earth would be approx 8 minutes and providing it fierce enough, all communications would go down, everything; mobiles, landlines, GPS, internet, satellites, television, radio. These flares have happened periodically over the Earth's existence, are not threatening to life, but naturally we've never had the technology we do now. This isn't a conspiracy, the probablity is low but the risk is real - some people, you guessed it, mainly stateside, really believe this will happen in their lifetime and go to extraordinary measures for what would be a complete collapse of our economies, society etc. in the event of such an occurence. While they may be eccentric, its one of the most plausible events that would lead to at least temporary devastation.

[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19276003]http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19276003

edit- this is not to be confused with killer solar flares, of which there is pretty much a probablity of 0.

[Albert]

There is a risk of a large solar flare, this will not destroy all technology however. It might do some damage yes, but we've had some bad events like this before, and it was recovered relatively quickly. Furthermore, whilst a solar maximum is coming it's not going to be anything particularly special solar maximum wise, and it's also going to be at it's peak in May 2013, not December 2012. Long story short, no, a solar flare is not going to collapse the world's economy bringing about a doomsday.

As for the whole "prophecy" thing. Grab a calender, look for the last day on it, is that now the end of the world? You know, because there's no day listed after it? Of course not. A lot of this comes from a misunderstanding of what the Mayan long count actually is. Here's a brief summary though:

The Mayan calendar was broken up into the following units of time:

K'in: 1 day

Winal: 20 k'in, 20 days

Tun: 18 winal, 360 days (~1 year)

K'atun: 20 tun, 7200 days (~20 years)

B'ak'tun: 20 K'atun, 144,000(~394 years)

This way a date can be written as 0.0.0.0.0 with B'atun being the left most, and it going down to K'in on the right. In this, today's date is 12.19.19.15.12. So, what is so special about the 21st of December this year? Well, that's the date that the 12 on the left there ticks over to a 13 and the rest go to 0, so the date will be 13.0.0.0.0. Think of the whole Y2K phenomena, except there isn't an issue like computer clocks ticking over to 1970 (if I recall correctly) or anything, just some ancient calendar ticking over. This said, there is some significant to the 14th B'ak'tun as something of the creation date, but there is very little mention of the current 14th B'ak'tun and it would have most likely have been a date of celebration. This said, they also made predictions and references to dates far in the future, thousands of years into the future in fact... But yeah...

Edit: I should point out that there is some debate about how the calendar works around the 14th B'ak'tun. December 21st 2012 is 13.0.0.0.0, but the question is whether it then goes to 0.0.0.0.1 for the 22nd, or if it goes to 13.0.0.0.1. In fact, longer counts featuring longer dates (i.e. 1.0.0.0.0.0) have been seen and seem to suggest that B'ak'tuns actually go in a cycle of 20, not 13.

[ramesses]

hehehehe

Dolphins and whales. Do they count?

Not only do they count but they multiply at the drop of a hat...

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l8qvn7nSk11qzft56o1_250

[Brammie Steve]

Chances of anything coming from Mars:-

[url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As0v-tzU-PY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=As0v-tzU-PY

[SantosHalper]

Other animals have a developed sense of self like humans? Which animals? I was going to suggest monkeys/apes but they're mammals aren't they?

I'm curious as to what other animals have this particular sense? I think the animal world is fascinating.

Crows, for example, can recognise themselves in a mirror. Scientists are pretty sure about this.

[SillyBilly]

There is a risk of a large solar flare, this will not destroy all technology however. It might do some damage yes, but we've had some bad events like this before, and it was recovered relatively quickly. Furthermore, whilst a solar maximum is coming it's not going to be anything particularly special solar maximum wise, and it's also going to be at it's peak in May 2013, not December 2012. Long story short, no, a solar flare is not going to collapse the world's economy bringing about a doomsday.

There is no precedent here with the level of technology we have and the reliance we have on it hence the speculation. This is actually my domain as a nuclear chemist, i.e. charged particles/radiation so its something which interests me - I must've read dozens of cited articles on this sort of stuff and I can inform you from my reading there is NO concensus of opinion.

The largest recorded to date being the 1859 " Carrington event".

Article here: [url=http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/]http://news.national...-event-science/

Lifted:

The flares were so powerful that "people in the northeastern U.S. could read newspaper print just from the light of the aurora," Daniel Baker, of the University of Colorado's [url=http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/]Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, said at a geophysics meeting last December.

In addition, the geomagnetic disturbances were strong enough that U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment—some bad enough to set fires, said Ed Cliver, a space physicist at the [url=http://www.wpafb.af.mil/AFRL/]U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory in Bedford, Massachusetts.

In 1859, such reports were mostly curiosities. But if something similar happened today, the world's high-tech infrastructure could grind to a halt.

"What's at stake," the Space Weather Prediction Center's Bogdan said, "are the advanced technologies that underlie virtually every aspect of our lives."

{content}

This was before the age of computers, mobile phones, internet, television etc. its only real implication was the failure of the then early telegraph systems across the "developed world" i.e North America and Europe. Technology may have improved but there is no real engineered protectionism against a massive surge in electromagnetic radiation. Satellites have basic protection as they are in space and as such require it but even they would probably be overwhelmed. Its not scaremongering IMO, its reasonable to say if we had such a repeat of the Carrington Event or a bigger Solar storm (probability low, risk real as I made a point of saying in my last post), a significant portion of electronic systems would be fried, how could they not be? The long and short of it actually is large solar flares periodically occur and we've never had one in an era of utter dependance on electronic systems so guess away as scientists do as to what the implications would be.[/indent]

[SantosHalper]

There is no precedent here with the level of technology we have and the reliance we have on it hence the speculation. This is actually my domain as a nuclear chemist, i.e. charged particles/radiation so its something which interests me - I must've read dozens of cited articles on this sort of stuff and I can inform you from my reading there is NO concensus of opinion.

The largest recorded to date being the 1859 " Carrington event".

Article here: [url=http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/]http://news.national...-event-science/

Lifted:

The flares were so powerful that "people in the northeastern U.S. could read newspaper print just from the light of the aurora," Daniel Baker, of the University of Colorado's [url=http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/]Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, said at a geophysics meeting last December.

In addition, the geomagnetic disturbances were strong enough that U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment—some bad enough to set fires, said Ed Cliver, a space physicist at the [url=http://www.wpafb.af.mil/AFRL/]U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory in Bedford, Massachusetts.

In 1859, such reports were mostly curiosities. But if something similar happened today, the world's high-tech infrastructure could grind to a halt.

"What's at stake," the Space Weather Prediction Center's Bogdan said, "are the advanced technologies that underlie virtually every aspect of our lives."

{content}

This was before the age of computers, mobile phones, internet, television etc. its only real implication was the failure of the then early telegraph systems across the "developed world" i.e North America and Europe. Technology may have improved but there is no real engineered protectionism against a massive surge in electromagnetic radiation. Satellites have basic protection as they are in space and as such require it but even they would probably be overwhelmed. Its not scaremongering IMO, its reasonable to say if we had such a repeat of the Carrington Event or a bigger Solar storm (probability low, risk real as I made a point of saying in my last post), a significant portion of electronic systems would be fried, how could they not be? The long and short of it actually is large solar flares periodically occur and we've never had one in an era of utter dependance on electronic systems so guess away as scientists do as to what the implications would be.[/indent]

Do we have any information about how often these solar storms occur? Are they once every few hundred years, or more or less frequent?

[Albert]

There is no precedent here with the level of technology we have and the reliance we have on it hence the speculation. This is actually my domain as a nuclear chemist, i.e. charged particles/radiation so its something which interests me - I must've read dozens of cited articles on this sort of stuff and I can inform you from my reading there is NO concensus of opinion.

The largest recorded to date being the 1859 " Carrington event".

Article here: [url=http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/]http://news.national...-event-science/

Lifted:

The flares were so powerful that "people in the northeastern U.S. could read newspaper print just from the light of the aurora," Daniel Baker, of the University of Colorado's [url=http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/]Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, said at a geophysics meeting last December.

In addition, the geomagnetic disturbances were strong enough that U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment—some bad enough to set fires, said Ed Cliver, a space physicist at the [url=http://www.wpafb.af.mil/AFRL/]U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory in Bedford, Massachusetts.

In 1859, such reports were mostly curiosities. But if something similar happened today, the world's high-tech infrastructure could grind to a halt.

"What's at stake," the Space Weather Prediction Center's Bogdan said, "are the advanced technologies that underlie virtually every aspect of our lives."

{content}

This was before the age of computers, mobile phones, internet, television etc. its only real implication was the failure of the then early telegraph systems across the "developed world" i.e North America and Europe. Technology may have improved but there is no real engineered protectionism against a massive surge in electromagnetic radiation. Satellites have basic protection as they are in space and as such require it but even they would probably be overwhelmed. Its not scaremongering IMO, its reasonable to say if we had such a repeat of the Carrington Event or a bigger Solar storm (probability low, risk real as I made a point of saying in my last post), a significant portion of electronic systems would be fried, how could they not be? The long and short of it actually is large solar flares periodically occur and we've never had one in an era of utter dependance on electronic systems so guess away as scientists do as to what the implications would be.[/indent]

I'll repeat these two key parts:

1. The Solar maximum isn't predicted to come until mid 2013

2. This solar cycle isn't anything particularly special

I'll also point out that based on ice core reconstructions 1859 scale events are a once in 500 year odd events, and whilst it is possible that something like it could occur, it isn't all that likely.

What about the damage then? Well, the March 1989 solar storm is a good example of what would likely happen. Basically, large blackouts in Quebec. However, what is the actual predicted effect of a massive solar storm? Potentially damaging many satellites. We are getting closer to being able to defend ourselves better though, and it's not as though we're completely unprepared. It would not be the end of the world by any means, it could do some severe damage, but ultimately it wouldn't be the apocalypse.

[ladyram]

Eh? Last I knew they all went and all came back? Although it's fair to say there's a few people who believe the Americans have never been near the moon and that even NASA didn't have the capabilities. (According to the doubters).

Just realised what I said there.

Doh.... 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' />

[SillyBilly]

Do we have any information about how often these solar storms occur? Are they once every few hundred years, or more or less frequent?

We can't predict what mega hurricanes will strike the US coast between the period 2020-30 so how could we have any greater degree of confidence in predicting meterological events on a celestial object 150 milllion km away? The only thing we can be sure of is they will occur at some point and they're statisically more probable to occur at certain periods i.e. from June 1st to Nov 30th (Hurricane season) or during a solar maximum (once every 11 years). Solar flares occur hundreds of times a year, we've no real interest in the flares that shut down the Toronto Stock Exchange for a day or so or cause disruption on sensitive instruments like we've had in recent years (albeit these are very substantial in their own right), the interest will be when we get a massive flare either of comparable size to the one in 1859 or larger. Albert has given us an average of 500 years and with such an average there is a small probability that in any one person's lifetime (be it now, next generation and so on) such an event will occur. Naturally, up until 100 or so years ago there was pretty much no consequence of such an occurence apart from perhaps an odd looking skyline which is why its difficult to appreciate what can/will happen. Cyber warfare I guess is testament to the fact that in the future a way to shut down a nation will be to disable its IT and communication systems (and therefore economy), that'd probably be far more damaging than dropping bombs in the centre of a capital IMO.

[Alex W]

Can I just say how pleasant it is to read such a debate between intelligent folks on such matters? Compared with some of the recent posters this forum now has, this is top draw stuff.

Please continue you two, i'm trying to educate myself here. (I love science, i'm just useless at it, I do try to read up though on interesting things like this)

[ladyram]

Crows, for example, can recognise themselves in a mirror. Scientists are pretty sure about this.

Just found this which is interesting. (Too long to copy so just click on the link)

[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24628983/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/smartest-animals/#.UJWCWmd9ZK8]http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24628983/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/smartest-animals/#.UJWCWmd9ZK8

Tell you what I do find fascinating, the jellyfish. It doesn't have a brain, a heart or any internal organs. Incredible when you think about it, but yet they know what's happening in their immediate surroundings and can sense when they're threatened. Nature is brilliant.

[Alex W]

There's a jellyfish that's near immortal, its cells simply reproduce after it mates during sexual maturity. Shag yourself to immortality, doesn't sound a bad theory.

[DCFCfranco]

Yeah, but being a jelly fish would be fooling boring.

[SantosHalper]

Just found this which is interesting. (Too long to copy so just click on the link)

[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24628983/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/smartest-animals/#.UJWCWmd9ZK8]http://www.msnbc.msn...s/#.UJWCWmd9ZK8

Tell you what I do find fascinating, the jellyfish. It doesn't have a brain, a heart or any internal organs. Incredible when you think about it, but yet they know what's happening in their immediate surroundings and can sense when they're threatened. Nature is brilliant.

The jellyfish is even more amazing. Not only do they have no brain, heart, and organs, but it seems that they have eyes. But hang on. If you have no brain, then what do the eyes actually do in that case?

There was an interesting experiment done on jellyfish a few years ago. If you put a jellyfish in a large tank with 3 or 4 different coloured poles placed vertically in the water, you see that they bump into some of the poles (ones painted black), but are able to navigate perfectly around the other poles (painted red). Does this suggest that they can detect colour?

[Cisse]

Poor bumping jellyfish. 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':(' />

[Boycie]

if you cut a jelly fish in half, would it grow back?

[ladyram]

if you cut a jelly fish in half, would it grow back?

I used to do that with worms, used to love chopping them in half. 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':ph34r:' />