Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/derbycounty/news/32929/? Earlier this season I wrote that one of the conditions for the Rams making the playoffs would be reducing goals conceded 61 last season to somewhere nearer 50. Now, 8 games into the season - a reasonable sample - we have already conceded 12 goals, meaning at this rate we are on target to let in 69 over a 46 game season. It is not quite time to panic, but management needs to recognize that with this defence we are going nowhere. Yet the goalkeeper and both fullbacks were changed during the summer for hopefully better players, or in the case of Brayford, the best available on our budget. So our only option now is to take a look at the centre back pairing. In defence, Keogh and Buxton are the survivors from last season. They started 26 league games together; I think all of Buxton's starts were at centre back, not right back. In those 26 games, the Rams conceded 38 goals, for an average of 1.46 goals per game. This would extend out to 67 goals over a 46 game season; right about where we are at so far this season. In the 20 games that Keogh was partnered by someone other than Buxton - O'Brien, O'Connor, Gjokaj, Freeman, even Brayford for a couple of games - the Rams conceded 23 goals, for an average of 1.15 goals per game. Over a 46 game season, that extends out to 53 goals. The 14 goals we could save in a season from not having Bucko at the back could make the difference between making the playoffs and getting the drop. I should add that in the four league games last season where we conceded three or more, Bucko was there each time. Football is a team game, and there are other factors in the Rams' situation. But one player who is not up to the job can make a real difference. I'm convinced that if the Rams are to live up to their potential, Bucko has to go. What are the options at centre back? I doubt that the club is going to spend big money bringing someone in, especially as we now have mounting problems with injured midfielders. If bringing someone in is not going to happen, then its time to give Freeman or Gjokaj a run alongside Keogh. It’s possible that there would be no real improvement with either of them; but we know there will be no great improvement if we keep Bucko. Ultimately it’s all down to the numbers, and for the Rams defence the numbers tell the story. ---------------------------- Anyone else in full agreement that dropping our BEST centre back and replacing him with young right back, or a untested centre back to play alongside our currently very out of from other centre back a bit barmy? who gives this guy the time of day Absolute horsesh*t IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Agree with your sentiments, for me the most pertinent point of the article is missed - is our best centre back good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Agree with your sentiments, for me the most pertinent point of the article is missed - is our best centre back good enough? Depends on what you mean by good enough - for this level, absolutely. to be the best at this level - no. I'd always keep Buxton around though, that much heart must rub off on the players around him. Might be a personal thing, but if I was playing with someone with that attitude week in week out, I'd graft a lot more I think. Sammon is similar and got praise for it after the millwall game - Buxton is always going to be useful at this level, every ball in the air is committed to with him - no half efforts, ever. If you have sulky moaning players (like Keogh and Martin) it can dampen the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Isn't it missing the stat of how many we concede when Buxton is partnered by someone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChaddesdenRam Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Isn't it missing the stat of how many we concede when Buxton is partnered by someone else? Exactly unfair analysis. The problem is Keogh played every game so was always partnered by Keogh. There's nothing to go on until we actually drop Keogh and see what happens. If we concede 5 then fair enough but we might become a rock. Nobody knows. However I still wouldn't drop Keogh because he has shown he is good enough. I wouldn't drop Bucko either. So what to do at CB. One things for certain Bucko and Keogh need competition for places and at the moment they don't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 What's your fascination with Bucko lol Just don't understand why he gets a hard deal. Second best player this season, behind Martin - best defender by some way (well Smith isn't far behind) but certainly infront of Freeman, Keogh and Forsyth. As I said, I analyse every game - nearly every game has buxton in the top 2/3 players in our team for 'good things done' wins his headers, and spreads the ball well. I'll admit he is far from faultless but he barely ever makes it into the worst 2/3 for that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Just don't understand why he gets a hard deal. Good question - why do you think he gets a raw deal? Lots of narrow minded people? Because he came from a non-league club? Because he is very limited in his abilities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Exactly unfair analysis. The problem is Keogh played every game so was always partnered by Keogh. There's nothing to go on until we actually drop Keogh and see what happens. If we concede 5 then fair enough but we might become a rock. Nobody knows. However I still wouldn't drop Keogh because he has shown he is good enough. I wouldn't drop Bucko either. So what to do at CB. One things for certain Bucko and Keogh need competition for places and at the moment they don't have that. I'd drop Keogh personally, until he proves himself mentally strong enough to win his place back - you could compare Buxtons record with someone else easily, he has been here for 4 years!! try his games with Barker, Shackell...etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mostyn6 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 Keogh for me is the worst performer by a country mile. Buxton is one of only a few to come out of the game v Reading with any credit. Keogh played like he was drunk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Good question - why do you think he gets a raw deal? Lots of narrow minded people? Because he came from a non-league club? Because he is very limited in his abilities? What is limited about his abilities though? only physically - his a better ball player than Keogh for me, Keogh on his occasion has a good killer pass in him, just like Forsyth on occasion has a good killer cross on him. But, 90% of the game Buxton will pick the smart option, and is able to hit the ball accruately down the wings - lots, and lots of examples with this. Gets a raw deal, because he isn't glorified in anyway - he came in unfancied and has (for me) never lets us down. He isn't as good as Shackell, nor Barker but he is better than keogh for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 Keogh for me is the worst performer by a country mile. Buxton is one of only a few to come out of the game v Reading with any credit. Keogh played like he was drunk! I have forsyth down as the worst defender this season... Buxton Smith Freeman Keogh Forsyth. in that order.. Smtih and Buxton the only two averaging over a 6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChaddesdenRam Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I have forsyth down as the worst defender this season... Buxton Smith Freeman Keogh Forsyth. in that order.. Smtih and Buxton the only two averaging over a 6/10 Pretty much 100% agreement. I think Forsyth is good enough for a top 6 push, he showed his full potential in the loan spell last season but this season his touch, passing and crossing have let him down. To be fair he is a 'defender' and has not been at fault for any goals. But ye way we play our fullbacks need to be very good on the ball and have great passing ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notts_ram Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 What is limited about his abilities though? I compare Buxton to Rob Hindmarch, willing to give 100%, committed, passionate (get my thesaurus of euphamisms out now lol) but technically lacking. Which is all well and good if you're playing alongside someone whom makes up for your deficiencies at centre half but if you're not then all it does is highlight them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mostyn6 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I have forsyth down as the worst defender this season... Buxton Smith Freeman Keogh Forsyth. in that order.. Smtih and Buxton the only two averaging over a 6/10 well then I'd suggest you haven't been analysing his role fairly. IN a similar way to how the right backs are suddenly looking dodgy, the left back is expected to do far too much work. Is it any wonder. If you have double the touches of someone, you should expect to have double the errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 It's all irrelevant who's the best they are what we have. Bucko gave away free kick for 1st Reading goal by diving in and was brushed aside for Burnleys 1st goal hes not free from criticism IMO. The defense concede bad goals Clough has to sort it . Give Gjokaj a game. I 100% agree he hasn't been blameless - no-one in our team currently has been outstanding this season, we have 5/6 players doing okay, and the rest are under-performing. well then I'd suggest you haven't been analysing his role fairly. IN a similar way to how the right backs are suddenly looking dodgy, the left back is expected to do far too much work. Is it any wonder. If you have double the touches of someone, you should expect to have double the errors. No, I obviously take into account everything - the amount of time on the ball, number of mistakes and normalise the results. Including common sense which comes into play more often than not. It's not a case of 'mistake' and 'good bit of play' tallying it up at the end and coming away with a score - it's just a more indepth way of producing more representative values - just a little project I am doing. For what it's worth Buxton is often in the 'thick of the action' and will get good bits of play for good tackles, good distribution, beating his man and clearing the ball (that bit is key) often Keogh will beat his man but put it straight back into a dangerous area which is a bit of an anti-climax and so on and so forth. The two examples i've found.. and wrote out, usually I just give ratings and leave it at that. Keeping it in the same format, I had overall 141 bits of good play (more than the millwall game) but 48 bits of bad play (again more than the millwall game) Eustace again coming up with the most bits of bad play with 9, and Martin this time doing the most bits of good play with 21. I noted down, good things done well and bad things done wrong by each player and it gave the following results (overall) 125 pieces of good play, and 38 bad. Each point isn't weighted, therefore a good clearance by Buxton, equals a 30 yard bullet by Bryson (these are just indicative though) Buxton made the most good points on the day with 20 whilst Eustace made the most bad points with 7 (he did more good than bad, just to note) it's quite insightful, as someone said the bolton game where I watched Martin produce some very nice link up play and put a lot of work in, that they thought he was average. Obviously human judgement is still 80% of it - but, that's down to the person. If people think I talk rubbish, then that's fine but if not then I think it's very fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 You don't talk rubbish at all you are always very reasoned I just don't always agree with your analysis but that's opinion . Bucko has played well this season but makes mistakes as does Keogh. Maybe try Gjokaj sometime with one or the other . By all accounts against Leicester the CBs were ok but Leicester put out a weakened team and when they put the big guns on it all changed. I really liked the look of Gjokaj but, the under 21s aren't covering themselves in much glory - you can count Hoggie + gjokaj in our squad but they're obviously not upto standard yet. I imagine Gjokaj will be on the bench for saturdays game now a space has opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mostyn6 Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I 100% agree he hasn't been blameless - no-one in our team currently has been outstanding this season, we have 5/6 players doing okay, and the rest are under-performing. No, I obviously take into account everything - the amount of time on the ball, number of mistakes and normalise the results. Including common sense which comes into play more often than not. It's not a case of 'mistake' and 'good bit of play' tallying it up at the end and coming away with a score - it's just a more indepth way of producing more representative values - just a little project I am doing. For what it's worth Buxton is often in the 'thick of the action' and will get good bits of play for good tackles, good distribution, beating his man and clearing the ball (that bit is key) often Keogh will beat his man but put it straight back into a dangerous area which is a bit of an anti-climax and so on and so forth. The two examples i've found.. and wrote out, usually I just give ratings and leave it at that. it's quite insightful, as someone said the bolton game where I watched Martin produce some very nice link up play and put a lot of work in, that they thought he was average. Obviously human judgement is still 80% of it - but, that's down to the person. If people think I talk rubbish, then that's fine but if not then I think it's very fair. I've said before, I enjoy having a debate with people who back up their opinions with reasons, whether I agree or don't agree. Fairplay. On some other forums, and occasionally on here, there are people that disagree with me just because it's me! and others who just disagree cos they don't like to accept things aren't brilliant as they feel almost disloyal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted September 26, 2013 Author Share Posted September 26, 2013 I've said before, I enjoy having a debate with people who back up their opinions with reasons, whether I agree or don't agree. Fairplay. On some other forums, and occasionally on here, there are people that disagree with me just because it's me! and others who just disagree cos they don't like to accept things aren't brilliant as they feel almost disloyal. Yeah, totally agree completely. We often take different sides, but I am often finding myself knowing how you got to THAT point which a lot of people just don't offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSheep Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 You don't get rid of bucko. Bucko gets rid of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 I have forsyth down as the worst defender this season... Buxton Smith Freeman Keogh Forsyth. in that order.. Smtih and Buxton the only two averaging over a 6/10 I'd agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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