Planning for the playoffs

[Carl Sagan]

On 17/04/2016 at 17:02, eddie said:

Do you honestly think that we will?

Missed this, Eddie. Not quite sure what the inference is behind the question (ie do you think there's nothing to worry about or are you not convinced). But not putting words in your mouth, I think you believe we've got our teams watching Hull like hawks, which is reassuring if so.

Anyway. Playoffs assured. Well done to all concerned. And, as I said, no stone to be left unturned about our analysis of Hull.

Is it more important to keep going at full pelt to try to finish above Hull and secure the home leg second, or do we want a policy of gentle rotation?  The latter could be the chance to rest players with knocks and give a little game time to those we might need to be fit and sharp in what we hope are the final three games of an extended season.

Everything now has to be about the optimal strategy for promotion. It's great to have a feel-good factor at the club, helped by the U21 Championship winning team and four wins in a row, even if three of those were against three of the bottom four. The remaining fixtures are:

• 23/04 Wendies (H)
• 02/05 Brighton (A)
• 07/05 Tractor Boys (H)

Wednesday need 3 points to guarantee 6th place. Brighton will be going flat out to try to secure autos. It's almost certain Ipswich will have nothing to play for.

[Carl Sagan]

The DET don't employ people who can count, but have given the results of the previous 16 (not 15) playoffs:

http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/Derby-County-place-lucky-Rams/story-29146008-detail/story.html

The team to have been promoted have apparently finished:

• 3rd 8 times
• 4th 1 time [when QPR beat us of course!]
• 5th 4 times
• 6th 3 times

This shows to me that the system works with the third-placed team having a 50% success rate with the other positions fairly evenly distributed among the also rans (when you allow for statistical variation). Good to avoid whichever of the 3 Bs drop down into third place and hope the Wendies knock them out.

 

[eddie]

37 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

The DET don't employ people who can count, but have given the results of the previous 16 (not 15) playoffs:

http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/Derby-County-place-lucky-Rams/story-29146008-detail/story.html

The team to have been promoted have apparently finished:

• 3rd 8 times
• 4th 1 time [when QPR beat us of course!]
• 5th 4 times
• 6th 3 times

This shows to me that the system works with the third-placed team having a 50% success rate with the other positions fairly evenly distributed among the also rans (when you allow for statistical variation). Good to avoid whichever of the 3 Bs drop down into third place and hope the Wendies knock them out.

 

By only showing the results from the previous 16 playoffs, they have missed off three teams who won the playoffs from 4th in the space of just 4 or 5 seasons. One of those was Leicester, who beat us (we were 6th).

[Inverurie Ram]

I only booked the megabus for the way home for the Q.P.R. game.

This time I've gone for the double, a return megabus, therefore this makes it at least a draw, and if the team that play in white shirts and black shorts are in town and there following fans are waving thousands of white and black flags in the West End and making all the noise, then the DW will be seen by millions and this time next year Rodney we'll all be millionaires!

Rodney keep spraying!