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Stato's Beware


Alex W

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An interesting example of how stats are misused and entirely unreliable on judging someone without the right parameters and/or person to read them. A good example of the fallacy of assists created, shots on goal being judged singularly etc. This is a breakdown of a previous tweet by Squawka regarding the performance of Ivanovic last night.

 

http://weaintgotnohistory.sbnation.com/2015/9/30/9422061/branislav-ivanovic-tackles-exposed-and-i-dont-mean-no-clothes

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I think it's important to highlight that there is a difference between bad data gathering and producing misleading stats.

OPTA aren't trying to produce crooked stats but to give people the level of detail they are asked takes a lot of effort to get right. The more difficult it is to follow the less likely the figure will be accurate. People see 78% pass completion and take it at face value. Two different fans might judge a pass to be a good pass or a bad pass. Maybe a good pass gets an opponents touch on the way through, was the original pass a 'bad pass'? Intercepted? Maybe the good pass gets to the defenders feet but he is surrounded by three players and the pass was a terrible decision.

Stats sites often disagree and even the ones with the big trusted reputations get things like yellow cards wrong from time to time. It's easy to think all the precise numbers mean high accuracy but it's just not the case.

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I hate the assist stat. Hate it. Some of the most creative players in football have few assists and if you take set pieces for Ipswich Town then you're a playmaker God. 

Nah, stats are alright if you're sat there thinking it's been a while since Dave had a touch/made a pass etc. But if you haven't observed the game then stats are useless. They're also useless if you refuse to acknowledge what you've seen. 

One point being brought up on here all the time is the shots on target stat. Tells you nothing of the context

They're good for cross checking with what you've seen. 

I wonder what Shackell's pass stats are? I bet they're good. But imo in the early matches he was the biggest culprit of killing tempo by passing slowly and behind people and having too many touches. Poor passes imo but they all reached Keogh. Eventually. He's got a bit better lately to be fair. 

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