The playoffs: is playing at home second really an advantage?

[Howard Canitbé]

1 hour ago, mike93rh said:

So what you're saying is, between 2015 and 1999, out of the 34 teams making the final there were 14 that played their home leg of the semis first? Though not a massive sample size it seems that having your away leg first could provide a slight advantage. 

edit: though 8 winners out of a possible 17 have won it playing their home leg first.. evens it up a bit. Though it suggests reaching the final is more likely with your home leg first. 

I interpreted it as "most years, one of the teams which plays at home first gets to the final". And from that, some years they don't. Too many other factors to glean anything useful by simply looking at whether the team which played the home leg first got to Wembley (or wherever), not least the quality of the winning team compared to the losing team. More often than not, quality wins out over a good atmosphere in either leg. Otherwise minnows winning in the FA cup ties wouldn't be such a big deal, it'd be commonplace when they played a PL "giant" at home. 

[eddie]

5 hours ago, curtains said:

You know what you have to do I front of your home crowd so it's is a big advantage.

 

Statistically it makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Over the last 24 years, the team finishing 4th has been to Wembley 12 times, and the team finishing 5th has been to Wembley 12 times.

For the game between 3rd and 6th, the margin is 15:9 in favour of the team finishing significantly higher, as you would expect.

 

[Curtains]

1 hour ago, eddie said:

Statistically it makes absolutely no difference whatsoever.

Over the last 24 years, the team finishing 4th has been to Wembley 12 times, and the team finishing 5th has been to Wembley 12 times.

For the game between 3rd and 6th, the margin is 15:9 in favour of the team finishing significantly higher, as you would expect.

 

Southampton at Pride Park was a case in question but then again Blackburn wasn't although we went 2-0 up away and lost the game 4-2 and didn't get it back at home .

A bad day at Ewood Park in the away end for the first leg that went from elation to anxiety so you have a point. 

[Inglorius]

Not really if you get spanked in the first leg tie is over. 

[eddie]

20 minutes ago, curtains said:

Southampton at Pride Park was a case in question but then again Blackburn wasn't although we went 2-0 up away and lost the game 4-2 and didn't get it back at home .

A bad day at Ewood Park in the away end for the first leg that went from elation to anxiety so you have a point. 

I think I have more than a point - I think that I have statistically blown the original premise out of the water.

[Curtains]

Just now, eddie said:

I think I have more than a point - I think that I have statistically blown the original premise out of the water.

Now now Eddie it just feels better to play at home 2nd leg .

 

[Curtains]

6 minutes ago, Inglorius said:

Not really if you get spanked in the first leg tie is over. 

Trying to make Eddie feel  better. 

[ahalftimereport]

Certainly remember feeling like it helped us in 2008 (Hull City) to go to Watford first leg, and can remember a number of players saying it was a big psychological boost for them. 

Ultimately though the first leg sets the tone. As you say, can make a case for either, though it's probably a slight advantage to have the decisive game in front of your own fans.