The Finance Thread

[SillyBilly]

The key recent news stories. France's credit rating downgraded again:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11876245/France-downgraded-by-Moodys-on-weak-growth.html

ECB ready to launch more QE to battle inflation and low growth (yawn):

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ecb-to-pump-in-more-money-if-inflation-stalls-10485778.html

BoE reveals negative interest rates are a possibility and as such cash could be scrapped:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html

The last article is interesting. Alex Jones is a well known conspiracy theorist (who does peddle a lot of crap) but he did claim that a "secret" meeting was held in London with top global financiers about cashless societies a couple of years ago. Since that point, there has been a raft of "subtle" announcements about it. Almost like they are preparing us for the phase-in. This has profound implications because it effectively means you are chained to the banking system from the moment you have a bank account. Your money can never be pulled out in protest and stuffed under the mattress, every penny is accountable. And most importantly for the banks and governments, they can impose a tax on your money with negative rates if they wanted to get you spending in a downturn, forcing you from a saver to a spender. This would also help them avoid the headache of depositors threatening their banks existence by taking their cash out en masse (as per other post they don't actually have anywhere near the amount of cash reserves to cover all of their depositors "money" due to fractional reserve banking). It is total control. I suspect a huge financial crisis could be an opportunity to get this over the line. The Nordic countries, particularly Denmark, are actually very close to this now. Personally, the more I am reading from central banks, the more concerned I am getting. They clearly think the medicine is more control for them and more assistance for their buddies in commercial banking.

[Ramarena]

The key recent news stories. France's credit rating downgraded again:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11876245/France-downgraded-by-Moodys-on-weak-growth.html

ECB ready to launch more QE to battle inflation and low growth (yawn):

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/ecb-to-pump-in-more-money-if-inflation-stalls-10485778.html

BoE reveals negative interest rates are a possibility and as such cash could be scrapped:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html

The last article is interesting. Alex Jones is a well known conspiracy theorist (who does peddle a lot of crap) but he did claim that a "secret" meeting was held in London with top global financiers about cashless societies a couple of years ago. Since that point, there has been a raft of "subtle" announcements about it. Almost like they are preparing us for the phase-in. This has profound implications because it effectively means you are chained to the banking system from the moment you have a bank account. Your money can never be pulled out in protest and stuffed under the mattress, every penny is accountable. And most importantly for the banks and governments, they can impose a tax on your money with negative rates if they wanted to get you spending in a downturn, forcing you from a saver to a spender. This would also help them avoid the headache of depositors threatening their banks existence by taking their cash out en masse (as per other post they don't actually have anywhere near the amount of cash reserves to cover all of their depositors "money" due to fractional reserve banking). It is total control. I suspect a huge financial crisis could be an opportunity to get this over the line. The Nordic countries, particularly Denmark, are actually very close to this now. Personally, the more I am reading from central banks, the more concerned I am getting. They clearly think the medicine is more control for them and more assistance for their buddies in commercial banking.

[Shang]

There was cover story on I think Time Out Magazine in London about living in a Cashless Society, think they're already starting to bring it into public conversation. 

[ketteringram]

Ftse having another good day. It could be heading for 4000. Then again, it could be heading for 8000…! 

[eddie]

Ftse having another good day. It could be heading for 4000. Then again, it could be heading for 8000…! 

[Ramarena]

Ftse having another good day. It could be heading for 4000. Then again, it could be heading for 8000…! 

[ketteringram]

I£44 billion of magic money gone in a day. 

[Ramarena]

We could have got a half decent holding midfielder for that. 

[Ramarena]

Back on subject I see Osborne was telling the Chinese today that the strong and robust U.K economy would be raising interest rates.

 

[SillyBilly]

Australia a mere few points off a bear market, ASX dropped below 5000 today, off the back of China's worst manufacturing figures since the last recession:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11884266/Gloomy-Chinese-manufacturing-outlook-knocks-Asian-shares.html

Sydney house prices continue to go parabolic.

Europe pretty flat and the U.S pretty flat in midday trading, FTSE 100 was star performer today oddly.

If anyone is interested, Catherine Austin Fitts is great to follow on Youtube or read her commentaries. She was a high flyer on Wall Street (bank exec) then later involved in housing in federal government, another one where the establishment turned on her, fired her, went after her businesses etc. Basically she ferociously objected to the corporate socialism acts of 2008/09 (turning private debt into sovereign debt). And she is fiercely intelligent. Pretty much gagged as a result.

 

 

[Ramarena]

 

Wonder if the is VW problem will have an effect on things? Personally I would have thought it wouldn't make to bigger dent, but if as rumoured, other manufacturers get found out, things could look shaky.

ING chief economist Carsten Brzeski argues that the whole country could suffer:

“All of a sudden, Volkswagen has become a bigger downside risk for the German economy than the Greek debt crisis.” 

“If Volkswagen’s sales were to plunge in North America in the coming months, this would not only have an impact on the company, but on the German economy as a whole.”

[SillyBilly]

Well, next Thursday is Armstrong's 2015.75 sovereign debt crisis date. This is what he predicts is the START date of the crisis with it unfolding in full by 2017.05. Supposedly this is the day that the debt ceiling in the U.S needs to be raised which is interesting? He believes this will be a crisis in government (i.e. bond collapse from their record highs and low yields) so not necessarily a stock market collapse (no idea where all this capital would fly to?).

I am going to buy his markets report for 2016 (never bought anything before from financial commentators but I am intrigued) - I will share the highlights on here for those interested. May send it over for a pint on a PM request :).

I will also be trying to get tickets for the World Economic Conference in Berlin in November so will report on this too nearer the time. A good line up of leaders and commentators to pick apart.

[Shang]

Well, next Thursday is Armstrong's 2015.75 sovereign debt crisis date. This is what he predicts is the START date of the crisis with it unfolding in full by 2017.05. Supposedly this is the day that the debt ceiling in the U.S needs to be raised which is interesting? He believes this will be a crisis in government (i.e. bond collapse from their record highs and low yields) so not necessarily a stock market collapse (no idea where all this capital would fly to?).

I am going to buy his markets report for 2016 (never bought anything before from financial commentators but I am intrigued) - I will share the highlights on here for those interested. May send it over for a pint on a PM request :).

I will also be trying to get tickets for the World Economic Conference in Berlin in November so will report on this too nearer the time. A good line up of leaders and commentators to pick apart.

Thanks, would be really interested in what you make of it. What do you think of this as well? http://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-investigate-seven-banks-over-precious-metals-market-trading-1443419289

[SillyBilly]

Thanks, would be really interested in what you make of it. What do you think of this as well? http://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-investigate-seven-banks-over-precious-metals-market-trading-1443419289

I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that the PM market is totally rigged, they fixed the LIBOR rate between them, I'd have thought coordinating their purchase and short-selling of gold/silver contracts (against retail and smaller institutional investors) is just another extension of their fraud.

I notice Deutsche Bank is in there. They are in deep **** anyway. They failed their stress test earlier in the year which the Germans tried to prevent publish of! Just look at its derivative exposure in the following link (54.7 TRILLION EUROS!). Consider a significant % of these "bets" are on interest rates, I think it could get tasty when rates finally move. You only need to be on the losing side of one big one to start a domino effect across the financial system. Most people don't understand derivatives and their dwarfing in financial terms of our actual economies. They have gone insane since 2008.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman

 

[Ramarena]

I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that the PM market is totally rigged, they fixed the LIBOR rate between them, I'd have thought coordinating their purchase and short-selling of gold/silver contracts (against retail and smaller institutional investors) is just another extension of their fraud.

I notice Deutsche Bank is in there. They are in deep **** anyway. They failed their stress test earlier in the year which the Germans tried to prevent publish of! Just look at its derivative exposure in the following link (54.7 TRILLION EUROS!). Consider a significant % of these "bets" are on interest rates, I think it could get tasty when rates finally move. You only need to be on the losing side of one big one to start a domino effect across the financial system. Most people don't understand derivatives and their dwarfing in financial terms of our actual economies. They have gone insane since 2008.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-12/deutsche-bank-next-lehman

 

Definitely, Deutsche Bank is in big trouble if things start to crumble, the question will be who will follow them. 

I also see Glencore were obliterated (again) today.

[SillyBilly]

Definitely, Deutsche Bank is in big trouble if things start to crumble, the question will be who will follow them. 

I also see Glencore were obliterated (again) today.

On Glencore, love to know what derivatives are on them. If Goldman pulls the plug then the knock-on effect would be massive.

[Ramarena]

On Glencore, love to know what derivatives are on them. If Goldman pulls the plug then the knock-on effect would be massive.

Supposedly it's $20 billion.

[Ramarena]

Supposedly it's $20 billion.

Ooooops $1 billion out. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-28/19-billion-derivative-liabiltiies-some-observations-glencores-counterparty-risk

[SillyBilly]

Ooooops $1 billion out. 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-28/19-billion-derivative-liabiltiies-some-observations-glencores-counterparty-risk

Not as high as I expected but still would have a considerable domino effect if they went under. Article does show how precarious their position is and I can only see further weakness in commodities coming off the back of China's August figures.

[Ramarena]

Interesting article on LSE's Charles Goodhart. 

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/why-world-economy-as-we-know-it-is-about-to-be-turned-on-its-head

Not sure I agree with it, but it covers some interesting ground. I think he underestimates the effect a robotised work force will have as technology develops.