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DCFC as Champions, 100/1 on Betfair?


drgoodspeak

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PistoldPete2

The bookies aren't stupid.. They won't look at the league table and change any odds dramatically based on a 3 game spin..

The take everything into consideration.. Results against certain teams, styles, players available, injuries, goals for, goals against, past experiences etc..

Derby are 100/1 (150/1 on bet365) because they've only absoloute minimul chance of winning the league.. They won't get even close and you'd be throwing your money away doing it..

My advice would be don't get carried away with winning 3 on the trot (regardless of opposition as everyone is average in this league).. I mean we've won 4 on the trot once this season and also lost 5 on the bounce.. Chances are it can happen again.

The safest bets I can see is for WHU to win outright EW (placed 1,2,3) at 5/4.. Their away record is just too good for them not to finish up there.

I think 100 to 1 is about right but does leave the bookies exposed a bit.

What is wrong is the relative ratings : Skybet have us on 200 to1 for the title same as Ipswich who are 10 points behind us.

If we have a 200 to 1 chance of making up a 10 point gap,on the top teams then i think Ipswich wil have a 200 to 1 chance of making up the same gap on us. Bookies defo have that wrong.

If you look at not just form (4 wins out of 5) but also injuries (ours now seem to be clearing up at last touch wood), and also WHo it was we have beaten recently , Leeds Hull and WHU then these factors should all be in our favour.

There are better teams than us in this league : WHU at full strength, Cardiff , and leicester especaily if they start spending again.

But so there were in 2006/07 we still got promoted. Also with Soton and West HAm faltering i dont see the Champions of this league getting 100 points or anything like it. Maybe Cardiff or Reading wil put a run together. Who knows?

Its all to play for for the play offs though.

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Just looking at some "deals" on betfair.com....

We're 10 points behind Southampton. Now, I'm in no way saying we're capable of it, I'm just surprised that those odds are available, especially with 3 on the bounce.

Your thoughts? I'm sorely tempted to have £100 on it as an outside bet.

P.S. Thanks for Hull Theo, £105 won.

200/1 on skybet.com

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