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Posts posted by Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster
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A many years viewer, but not a regular poster, for a while, but tonight's heroic efforts got me thinking about starting a thread about our perceived percentage chances of achieving survival in our division. Before tonight I'd have assessed our chances of survival at about 1-2%, despite 2 consecutive wins, although after tonight I'd upgrade that probability to 10%. I love maths, probabilities and percentages - the reality of an event happening, versus a blind-faith hopefulness of it happenning.
After tonight, indulge me if you will, where do you put our percentage chances of survival?
It would be interesting to update this thread on a match by match basis.
Indulge the nerd in me, what do you think our percentage chance of survival is, as of today?
As I said, I'll get the ball rolling at 10% - today.
What's your assessment - in percentage terms of us pulling it off? No guffawing in the cheap seats.
Survival - a percentage evaluation thread.
in Derby County Forum
Posted · Edited by Dave Mackay Ate My Hamster
Just an afterthought. Of course, so much will depend if we can resolve the ownership issue in January. If we enter into a fire-sale, we've no chance, but if someone resolves it quickly and pumps in say, 5 to 10 million in, what admittedly would be a huge gamble, the chances of us surviving could bump up to 20%-30% +.