Portsmouth (H) Sat 29th April

[LeedsCityRam]

1 hour ago, Andicis said:

Thing is though accounting for form, you should also consider the form at the time we played them. For example, when Rosenior beat Barnsley, they had a really stuttering start to the season and their first month and a bit they actually were quite off it and dropped a lot of points. Shrewsbury and Fleetwood were no great sides when we faced them. Peterborough was a good win, but Wycombe were in the bottom half, and Lincoln were also in the bottom half and played us off the pitch. Why are we considering form now when it may not reflect form at the time? 

As before about the away wins, we actually had our more winnable top half sides, under Rosenior, so it's unfair to hold it on Warne. When we played Pompey away for example they were above us in the league and most considered it a good point.

Think we're drifting from the original point here. There is no accounting for form in the stats top half v bottom half, its purely based on the most objective measurement there is of a team's quality...their league position. There are deviations in form obviously but the league table smoothes that out over the course of a season.

Like I said previously, there is context to apply but this is subjective in nature...a team's form, how many injured players they had or a myriad of other factors (manager change, transfer window, international breaks etc). To suggest we can't statistically appraise Warne because of this though does come across as giving him a free pass.

Re your last point about top half sides faced, Rosenior faced 7 & Warne has faced 14 but Rosenior has more wins against that 7 than Warne has in 14. Again a standalone statistic.

[Andicis]

Just now, LeedsCityRam said:

Think we're drifting from the original point here. There is no accounting for form in the stats top half v bottom half, its purely based on the most objective measurement there is of a team's quality...their league position. There are deviations in form obviously but the league table smoothes that out over the course of a season.

Like I said previously, there is context to apply but this is subjective in nature...a team's form, how many injured players they had or a myriad of other factors (manager change, transfer window, international breaks etc). To suggest we can't statistically appraise Warne because of this though does come across as giving him a free pass.

Re your last point about top half sides faced, Rosenior faced 7 & Warne has faced 14 but Rosenior has more wins against that 7 than Warne has in 14. Again a standalone statistic.

But top half isn't necessarily a great metric. Playing Ipswich or Wednesday is not equal to playing against Charlton, Fleetwood or Lincoln. Rosenior didn't beat any of the latter 3. Also lost to Plymouth, but beat Barnsley and Peterborough and Wycombe. 

Form smooths out over the season sure, but factors when we actually played the teams in question are relevant. It's not giving him a free pass, in fact in not considering these things I would say it would be being disingenuous. Rosenior had Barnsley, Peterborough, Plymouth and Wycombe at home, all the ones he won. 

[Ram-Alf]

18 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Don't think the 6.57 crew is still a thing but they certainly used to have a bit of a rep.

They certainly did...bit off mote than they could chew on this occasion tho

 

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

Can only look at the results against those you might be playing.  At any given stage of a season any team might be top half and flying.  Cambridge were 7th when we beat them.  Oxford were expected to be playoff contenders first game having kept hold of their best player etc.  Not much in any of the top 7 teams in this league as it stands.  We've only lost twice to the top 2 and with some controversy in two of those. 

[Crewton]

28 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

They certainly did...bit off mote than they could chew on this occasion tho

 

Another blatant penalty we didn't get!     #GetCarterOut

[Blondest Goat]

3 hours ago, Srg said:

Want to be known as a nice footballing team down here? Fine, be Oxford or MK Dons, and look where they are. Let's get out of this pit first.

Ipswich and Plymouth play decent football and have just got themselves out of this league.   No reason why we can't attempt to do the same.  

[NottsRam77]

2 hours ago, Red Ram said:

He's scored 11 goals. He works incredibly hard and generally holds the ball up well. He's a decent striker at this level. His biggest problem is that he's competing with, and therefore invites comparison with, McGoldrick, who's clearly exceptional (that is, far too good) at this level.

Not as good as the likes of Martin or CKR but we're playing in League One these days...

Oh i know, its where we’re at as a club

I was expecting a linda stevie howard esq sort of striker, a real bully but i think hes not really lived up to that… hes been fine.. given where weve come from.

i think his hold up play is atrocious tbh, his touch and next pass 9/10 is the wrong ball and turns over possesion.

but im not here to bash him, he gives his all and has done a job for us. 

[i-Ram]

1 hour ago, Andicis said:

But top half isn't necessarily a great metric. Playing Ipswich or Wednesday is not equal to playing against Charlton, Fleetwood or Lincoln. Rosenior didn't beat any of the latter 3. Also lost to Plymouth, but beat Barnsley and Peterborough and Wycombe. 

Form smooths out over the season sure, but factors when we actually played the teams in question are relevant. It's not giving him a free pass, in fact in not considering these things I would say it would be being disingenuous. Rosenior had Barnsley, Peterborough, Plymouth and Wycombe at home, all the ones he won. 

You should be a Tory MP

[Jimbo Ram]

4 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

You should be a Tory MP

What an awful thing to say…..swear at him, ridicule him…..but that 🫢

[DavesaRam]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

I agree, when he first arrived he looked like a real prospect but it hasn’t quite happened for him. Sadly, just like a certain other player who’s big mistake in a big match lives in the memory (I think you know who I’m referring to 😀), being involved in two soft penalties means his other good or uneventful games will forever be overshadowed and forgotten.

The weakness to that argument is that the first “soft penalty” involved virtually no contact whatsoever, and got an apology from the ref afterwards, and for the second one he had been fouled and then collided with the forward as he fell. The second one was more understandable, and definitely would not have been given if it was in the opposition's penalty area. Hardly disastrous or reckless play on White’s part.

[MadAmster]

When he's on the pitch I'd like to see Collo actually try to compete for high balls, even if he knows he's not going to get the ball. It puts the defender under pressure and will lead to mistakes which might give another Derby player the chance to create something...

[Andicis]

33 minutes ago, i-Ram said:

You should be a Tory MP

Feel free to make a point contrary to mine, I think it's an interesting discussion. 

[Inverurie Ram]

2 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

We didn't concede a goal in either of those games so you don't need to watch either of them to know he didn't "play a part in defensive errors or poor passing etc leading to conceding".

…….crikey you’ll be telling me next that in games that end up 0 for us or the opposing team, that a goalkeeper, defence, midfield and attack have made no mistakes whatever in the game, because neither side conceded.

I’m off back to post some flags!

[PistoldPete]

4 hours ago, LeedsCityRam said:

Accounting for form works both ways though. Our highest placed away win under Warne was Exeter in 14th who we beat recently, are in awful form (lost 5 straight I believe) & shipped 5 in the first half hour to Ipswich on Sat. Exclude that & we dont have an away win at anyone outside the bottom 6. 

Just re Rosenior, he faced 7 teams in the top half out of his 9 games in charge...that would indeed skew the statistic but against him & in favour of Warne. What can't be disputed is that Warne has managed a disproportionate amount of games against lesser opposition (22 out of 36 against bottom half sides) & that he has two wins against top half sides in 14 attempts. About as objective a stat as possible although context can smooth the edges (if not totally refute) that I accept.

We lost 4 out of 4 against Ipswich and Plymouth but you can discount them as they are not going to be in the play offs. We beat Bolton, Barnsley and drew v Sheff Wed. We are in with a chance. Collins goal on Saturday showed what a good finisher he is, I think he has been really unlucky loads of near misses.  If we stop being unlucky in front of goal, who knows anything can happen. 

[LeedsCityRam]

2 hours ago, Andicis said:

But top half isn't necessarily a great metric. Playing Ipswich or Wednesday is not equal to playing against Charlton, Fleetwood or Lincoln. Rosenior didn't beat any of the latter 3. Also lost to Plymouth, but beat Barnsley and Peterborough and Wycombe. 

Form smooths out over the season sure, but factors when we actually played the teams in question are relevant. It's not giving him a free pass, in fact in not considering these things I would say it would be being disingenuous. Rosenior had Barnsley, Peterborough, Plymouth and Wycombe at home, all the ones he won. 

Well all stats need a benchmark otherwise they get lost in never-ending or unquantifable variables...I believe this approach is fair as top half teams are patently better than bottom half & of course, Warne's dubious record extends beyond the top 6...we also struggle to beat Wycombe, Lincoln, Fleetwood etc. Obviously we disagree overall but out of interest, what stats or metric would you use to appraise Warne's time here to date? 

 

7 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

We lost 4 out of 4 against Ipswich and Plymouth but you can discount them as they are not going to be in the play offs. We beat Bolton, Barnsley and drew v Sheff Wed. We are in with a chance. Collins goal on Saturday showed what a good finisher he is, I think he has been really unlucky loads of near misses.  If we stop being unlucky in front of goal, who knows anything can happen. 

We have a chance of course but the lack of success against better sides starts to become a psychological barrier the longer it goes on (and probably reveals continued limitations in tactical set up). Speaking to a Wendy & Barnsley fan I know here in Leeds, they'd both prefer Derby as an opponent to anyone else in the playoffs. Lack of pace in side & inability to beat anyone decent both cited incidentally.

P.s. agree with point about Collins, think he's come in for some hammer this year but he is a matchwinner if given the right service & support

Edited May 1, 2023 by LeedsCityRam

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, DavesaRam said:

The weakness to that argument is that the first “soft penalty” involved virtually no contact whatsoever, and got an apology from the ref afterwards, and for the second one he had been fouled and then collided with the forward as he fell. The second one was more understandable, and definitely would not have been given if it was in the opposition's penalty area. Hardly disastrous or reckless play on White’s part.

Fair Point but some still seem to want to label him as a liability when it comes to defending.

[RoyMac5]

3 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Fair Point but some still seem to want to label him as a liability when it comes to defending.

I wonder why? Perhaps if (as agreed by Warne) he hadn't put himself into the position where a 'soft' penalty could be given?

[Tamworthram]

1 hour ago, Inverurie Ram said:

…….crikey you’ll be telling me next that in games that end up 0 for us or the opposing team, that a goalkeeper, defence, midfield and attack have made no mistakes whatever in the game, because neither side conceded.

I’m off back to post some flags

 What a weird interpretation of what I said. never said he doesn’t, nor any other player, make mistakes or that this could be evidenced by the fact we didn’t concede a goal in a particular game.You said you’ve never seem him play in a game where he hasn’t either conceded a penalty or contributed to us conceding a goal due a poor back pass or making a defensive error (or words to that effect). I was simply pointing out two examples where neither of these had happened.

 

[Tamworthram]

2 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

I wonder why? Perhaps if (as agreed by Warne) he hadn't put himself into the position where a 'soft' penalty could be given?

I agree but the original post in this little thread was suggesting he always either concedes a penalty or contributes to us conceding a goal.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

1 hour ago, PistoldPete said:

We lost 4 out of 4 against Ipswich and Plymouth but you can discount them as they are not going to be in the play offs. We beat Bolton, Barnsley and drew v Sheff Wed. We are in with a chance. Collins goal on Saturday showed what a good finisher he is, I think he has been really unlucky loads of near misses.  If we stop being unlucky in front of goal, who knows anything can happen. 

Part of his issue as thinking he has too hit everything like an Exocet, even 7 yards from goal .  Just place it man