Jason Knight, option to extend his contract

[Boycie]

2 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

It’s unlikely B4…..like staying up last season was, I seem to remember you saying similar things then ?

Yeah but if it wasn’t for the points deduction we would of, sorry, would have!

Wot u sayin nah?

[B4ev6is]

2 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

It’s unlikely B4…..like staying up last season was, I seem to remember you saying similar things then ?

Many people are saying expecting the ones to catch Plymouth.

[Boycie]

4 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Many people are saying expecting the ones to catch Plymouth.

Who Ipswich? I think they will spend some money in January mate.

[B4ev6is]

1 minute ago, Boycie said:

Who Ipswich? I think they will spend some money in January mate.

Many are saying derby are the ones to do it.

But I do think we need some extra fire power upfront.

[Boycie]

1 minute ago, B4ev6is said:

Many are saying derby are the ones to do it.

But I do think we need some extra fire power upfront.

We ain’t got no money mate though?

[B4ev6is]

Just now, Boycie said:

We ain’t got no money mate though?

Well we probley got some money but cant spend it.

But you can find decent players on frees but I do think warn got some lined up but waiting on lasts bit to be done.

[Boycie]

Just now, B4ev6is said:

Well we probley got some money but cant spend it.

But you can find decent players on frees but I do think warn got some lined up but waiting on lasts bit to be done.

Oh our man’s got some money and you’re correct he can’t spend it.

but I hope you’re right, like Rosenior before him, I hope he brings in some gems in January to push us on.

[Jimbo Ram]

16 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Many people are saying expecting the ones to catch Plymouth.

Really ?

[B4ev6is]

Just now, Jimbo Ram said:

Really ?

Yep really

[B4ev6is]

4 minutes ago, Boycie said:

Oh our man’s got some money and you’re correct he can’t spend it.

but I hope you’re right, like Rosenior before him, I hope he brings in some gems in January to push us on.

I think he will have mate just being patiencent mate like he said they got to be right players to bring in.

[kevinhectoring]

On 03/01/2023 at 14:46, jimtastic56 said:

As we know from Buchannon , Festy etc  - The player will do what is best in His interests.

Except we’re now stable. We were in a tumble drier when those guys left. Your point is still a good one but Warne is in a better position to persuade players to stay on 

[Ram@Lincoln]

14 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Stop being negative each of those teams can have slump at any time and with Plymouth losing morgan Whittier major peace gone.

I'm being realistic and looking at ten seasons of statistics. Sure the odd surprise will occur now and again like Leicester winning the Premiership but was 5000/1 and by Christmas they looked well on for it.

On current performance we need a 17 point swing for top two, 24 points swing for the title. Allowing for those above us to have a bad run of form, lets downgrade them to the ten season average. That's still Derby needing a 10 point swing for top two and a 16 point swing for the title. We need to achieve around 18 wins for this to happen to make up ground and make the challenge. That's 18 wins from 22 games, or on current forecasted performance around 21 wins from 22 games. It simply isn't going to happen.

Plymouth have already strengthen with three quality additions in Callum Wright, Saxon Earley and Ben Waine. Sheffield Wednesday are heavily linked with the likes of Aden Flint, Tayo Edun, Luke McNally and James Hill - Darren Moore is obviously happy with his attack and is shoring up the backline. Ipswich are meant to be spending big and are said to be lining up bids for Morgan Whittaker and others.

We're having to scrap around the clearance bins trying to find anything remotely decent. As Darren Robinson said on RD the other night, the players we're targeting will either be way out of fitness, massively out of form, injury prone or all of the above. We haven't got the luxury of available resources that the others have, neither do we have the points already on the board like they do.

But hey, call me negative. 

[Ghost of Clough]

30 minutes ago, Ram@Lincoln said:

I'm being realistic and looking at ten seasons of statistics. Sure the odd surprise will occur now and again like Leicester winning the Premiership but was 5000/1 and by Christmas they looked well on for it.

On current performance we need a 17 point swing for top two, 24 points swing for the title. Allowing for those above us to have a bad run of form, lets downgrade them to the ten season average. That's still Derby needing a 10 point swing for top two and a 16 point swing for the title. We need to achieve around 18 wins for this to happen to make up ground and make the challenge. That's 18 wins from 22 games, or on current forecasted performance around 21 wins from 22 games. It simply isn't going to happen.

Plymouth have already strengthen with three quality additions in Callum Wright, Saxon Earley and Ben Waine. Sheffield Wednesday are heavily linked with the likes of Aden Flint, Tayo Edun, Luke McNally and James Hill - Darren Moore is obviously happy with his attack and is shoring up the backline. Ipswich are meant to be spending big and are said to be lining up bids for Morgan Whittaker and others.

We're having to scrap around the clearance bins trying to find anything remotely decent. As Darren Robinson said on RD the other night, the players we're targeting will either be way out of fitness, massively out of form, injury prone or all of the above. We haven't got the luxury of available resources that the others have, neither do we have the points already on the board like they do.

But hey, call me negative. 

Plymouth may have signed 3 players, but they also lost a player who has 16 goal contributions in their 25 games.
They've signed:
1) A CM who has hardly played this season, with 0 goal contributions
2) A LB who will come in as competition for their current first choice
3.)A  21 year old forward who has only ever played for Wellington Phoenix. He wasn't even their top scorer this season. Forest flop Jason Cummings has had a much better goal contribution. Jamie Maclaren, who scored 1 goal for Hibs in his final season in Scotland already has 4 times as many goals.
They've added depth, but not quality.

You state "I'm being realistic and looking at ten seasons of statistics". However, the highest a 3rd place side has finished on is 90 (11/12).This was actually the highest ever since 3 points for a win was introduced. Being realistic, 91 points is the total required for automatics (50 points in 22 games) and that's perfectly achievable. Three teams did it in the first half of the season, so there's no reason why we can't in the 2nd half.

[Beetle]

I would love it to happen but there is no way we'll be getting 50 points from 22 games.

We're doing better than my expectations considering where we were before the season started. Play offs would still be a great achievement let's not forget that.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Beetle
Typo and additional comment

[Ram@Lincoln]

32 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Plymouth may have signed 3 players, but they also lost a player who has 16 goal contributions in their 25 games.
They've signed:
1) A CM who has hardly played this season, with 0 goal contributions
2) A LB who will come in as competition for their current first choice
3.)A  21 year old forward who has only ever played for Wellington Phoenix. He wasn't even their top scorer this season. Forest flop Jason Cummings has had a much better goal contribution. Jamie Maclaren, who scored 1 goal for Hibs in his final season in Scotland already has 4 times as many goals.
They've added depth, but not quality.

You state "I'm being realistic and looking at ten seasons of statistics". However, the highest a 3rd place side has finished on is 90 (11/12).This was actually the highest ever since 3 points for a win was introduced. Being realistic, 91 points is the total required for automatics (50 points in 22 games) and that's perfectly achievable. Three teams did it in the first half of the season, so there's no reason why we can't in the 2nd half.

Last season Wright got 9 goals and 5 assists for Cheltenham who finished 15th, 27 points off the play offs and conceded 80 goals. To do that well in a poor team surely suggests he's got quality and should perform even better with a higher quality of player around him. For Earley, he's coming from a very good loan at Stevenage with the 2nd in League Two and looking good for promotion. 20 years old with plenty of potential. The striker, fair play the weakest of the bunch on paper from experience, but going off their manager's latest comments, they haven't finished with business yet and will continue to strengthen.

If being selective with figures - 3rd place in 12/13 (79 points), 15/16 (84), 16/17 (82), 19/20 (80) and 20/21 (80), so an average of 82 points for 3rd taking away five years of "outliers", which being half the data can't really be outliers. For 2nd place, again looking at the lowest performance and only considering five of the last ten years, 12/13 (83 points), 15/16 (85), 16/17 (87), 19/20 (81) and 20/21 (87). These lowest years are all the same seasons, this shows these were the weakest seasons. We're currently in a high performing season, based on the current performance and points per game average over the season when compared to past data. 

As you say, we need a minimum of 50 points to stand any chance. Sure Ipswich, Plymouth and Sheffield Wednesday have proven it can be done. However they have managed to pick up wins by scoring lots of goals. 12 to 14 goals more than we have scored. If we can keep up the fantastic defensive record and find a consistent goalscorer somewhere, this will be a great help for us. 

I'll always hope and dream for automatic promotion but I can't see it happening unless a miracle happens. If for example, we got that Borges chap from Man City on loan that's potentially an absolute game changer. We're well set for the playoffs - and just lacking the killer threat up top to really finish off teams. If we can turn the draws into wins, anything can happen.

[Jubbs]

52 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

1) A CM who has hardly played this season, with 0 goal contributions

TBF, Callum Wright is a very good player. Cheltenham fans rated him much better than Azaz (who Plymouth also have) and he kept Azaz out of the squad when they were both at Cheltenham fans.

[Ram@Lincoln]

51 minutes ago, Jubbs said:

TBF, Callum Wright is a very good player. Cheltenham fans rated him much better than Azaz (who Plymouth also have) and he kept Azaz out of the squad when they were both at Cheltenham fans.

Before his injury it was 6 goals and 3 assists in 15 games for Azaz. Latest news today being that he's back in training and hoping of returning soon. He'll be a great replacement for Whittaker. 

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/sport/football/finn-azaz-gives-plymouth-argyle-8000153

[RoyMac5]

 

[CapeTownRams]

Listening to the RD interview with Knight it seems likely to me that his decision as to whether he wants to stay with the Rams long- term depends on whether we get promoted this season. Yes, we have the one year option but even if that is taken up we would have to be looking to sell him well before the end of the next season if he’s indicated that he wants to look at a move.

To me, Knighty is one of our key players and would be a massive loss if he left. 

[Ram@Lincoln]

20 minutes ago, caymanram said:

Listening to the RD interview with Knight it seems likely to me that his decision as to whether he wants to stay with the Rams long- term depends on whether we get promoted this season. Yes, we have the one year option but even if that is taken up we would have to be looking to sell him well before the end of the next season if he’s indicated that he wants to look at a move.

To me, Knighty is one of our key players and would be a massive loss if he left. 

I agree, for me it sounded like he wasn't really fully committed. More of a "let's wait and see" reply, thankfully we have the option to activate to not lose him for nothing. If we go up this season, we can push on next season and hopefully keep him. If not, we most likely sell up in the summer.