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Derby County Prediction Competition 2022/23


David

Derby County Prediction Competition 2022/23  

262 members have voted

  1. 1. Where will Derby finish in the table this season?

    • Champions
      57
    • Runner Up
      22
    • Play Offs
      122
    • 7th - 10th
      53
    • 11th - 20th
      7
    • Bottom 4
      0

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  • Poll closed on 30/07/22 at 13:16

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On 22/07/2022 at 07:42, kevinhectoring said:

Yes I went for play offs. As you say the fan base gives us a real advantage. So if we make the play offs I reckon we’re favourites for promotion 

Hmm. Call me a bluff old traditionalist but I think the favourite for promotion will be the team that comes top. ?

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45 minutes ago, Foreveram said:

The team that finish top won’t be in the playoffs 

Very true. However you can read the original comment either way. Being in the playoffs does not make you favourite for promotion.  Winning it makes you the favourite.  You may be favourite out of the playoff teams, even then it is a lottery.  QPR anyone? 

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35 minutes ago, BathRam72 said:

Very true. However you can read the original comment either way. Being in the playoffs does not make you favourite for promotion.  Winning it makes you the favourite.  You may be favourite out of the playoff teams, even then it is a lottery.  QPR anyone? 

You can’t be favourite for something you’ve already won, so obviously they were talking about the playoffs. Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour ?

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1 hour ago, Foreveram said:

You can’t be favourite for something you’ve already won, so obviously they were talking about the playoffs. Is this a five minute argument or the full half hour ?

However,  if you read my original post, it was tongue in cheek as there was a smiley face. (Google humour). 

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  • 4 weeks later...

We’re going to piss this league. We already have done so far although we couldn’t get the goals to show for it.

Looking forward to playing Ipswich and Wednesday but if the majority of the league is the type of quality we’ve seen so far we’re going to piss it.

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  • 4 months later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...

Number of sides promoted straight back to the Championship

2011-12 - 0

2012-13 - 1 (Doncaster)

2013-14 - 1 ( Wolves )

2014-15 - 0

2015-16 - 1 (Wigan)

2016-17 - 1 (Bolton)

2017-18 - 3 (Wigan, Blackburn, Rotherham)

2018-19 - 1 (Barnsley)

2019-20 - 1 (Rotherham)

2020-21 - 1 (Hull)

Hey fellow Derby County fans,

As we look back at the past ten seasons, it's clear that our task of achieving promotion is daunting. Out of the 30 teams that were relegated from the second tier, only 10 managed to secure promotion in the following year. On average, only one team per season was able to achieve promotion as champions, runners-up, or play-off winners.

It's worth noting that most of the promoted clubs had squads that were bolstered by transfers, rather than the bare minimum needed to compete. Also, most of these clubs were not restricted to free agents and loan players due to a transfer ban.

Interestingly, in the 2017-18 season, all three teams relegated from the Championship - Wigan, Blackburn Rovers, and Rotherham - were able to bounce straight back up.

However, there were two seasons where none of the relegated teams were able to secure promotion in their first attempt. In the 2011-12 season, Sheffield United stumbled in the play-offs, while Preston and Scunthorpe finished in the bottom half of the table. Similarly, in 2014-15, Barnsley and Doncaster Rovers finished in 11th and 13th place respectively, while Yeovil Town suffered a second successive relegation.

Overall, the trend has been for one team out of every three to achieve promotion. Let's hope that our club can learn from these trends and make the necessary moves to secure our promotion to the Championship, even with the transfer restrictions we face.

Come on you Rams!

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Winning promotion from League One requires a combination of several key factors, including:

Consistent Performance: A team must consistently perform well throughout the season to win League One. This involves maintaining a high level of fitness, skill, and focus, and being able to consistently execute the game plan.

If you look at our clubs recent performances they have not been consistently good enough.

Strong Defence: A solid defence is essential for any team that wants to win League One. This involves having a well-organized and disciplined backline that can prevent opponents from scoring, as well as a goalkeeper who can make crucial saves when called upon.

https://www.turboscores.com/competitions/83/england/league-one/defence-attack

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sportsmole.co.uk/football/league-one/best-defence.html

Attacking Prowess: A team must also be able to score goals consistently to win League One. This requires a potent attacking unit that can create chances and convert them into goals, as well as players who can provide creative spark and innovation in the final third.

Teamwork: Winning League One is not just about individual talent; it also requires a team to work together cohesively. This means having players who are willing to put in the hard work for each other, communicate effectively, and understand their roles and responsibilities within the team.

Our team with 24 players is one of the smallest in the league. Barnsley, Ipswich and Plymouth, each have 29 first team players. Bolton have 26 first team players.

Good Management: A successful team must have a strong and effective management structure in place. This includes a manager who can motivate and inspire the players, as well as a coaching staff who can provide technical and tactical support.

obviously pw has great experience in promoting teams from league 1.

Overall, winning League One is a challenging task that requires a combination of talent, hard work, and effective management.

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On 17/03/2023 at 15:51, Oldben said:

Winning promotion from League One requires a combination of several key factors, including:

Consistent Performance: A team must consistently perform well throughout the season to win League One. This involves maintaining a high level of fitness, skill, and focus, and being able to consistently execute the game plan.

If you look at our clubs recent performances they have not been consistently good enough.

Strong Defence: A solid defence is essential for any team that wants to win League One. This involves having a well-organized and disciplined backline that can prevent opponents from scoring, as well as a goalkeeper who can make crucial saves when called upon.

https://www.turboscores.com/competitions/83/england/league-one/defence-attack

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.sportsmole.co.uk/football/league-one/best-defence.html

Attacking Prowess: A team must also be able to score goals consistently to win League One. This requires a potent attacking unit that can create chances and convert them into goals, as well as players who can provide creative spark and innovation in the final third.

Teamwork: Winning League One is not just about individual talent; it also requires a team to work together cohesively. This means having players who are willing to put in the hard work for each other, communicate effectively, and understand their roles and responsibilities within the team.

Our team with 24 players is one of the smallest in the league. Barnsley, Ipswich and Plymouth, each have 29 first team players. Bolton have 26 first team players.

Good Management: A successful team must have a strong and effective management structure in place. This includes a manager who can motivate and inspire the players, as well as a coaching staff who can provide technical and tactical support.

obviously pw has great experience in promoting teams from league 1.

Overall, winning League One is a challenging task that requires a combination of talent, hard work, and effective management.

we can't / won't win L1. so does any of above apply to scraping a play off place?

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As much as we all love and support our club, I wanted to share my thoughts on the challenges we face in the upcoming seasons. Given the current circumstances, I believe it is unlikely that we will secure promotion this season or next. Here are my reasons for this conclusion, with additional information on the transfer budget constraints and SCMP rules in League One:

Lack of Squad Strength and Depth: Our team has faced a number of issues, including a two-year transfer ban, which has had a detrimental impact on our ability to strengthen the squad. This has left us with a lack of depth, which could potentially hinder our performance in crucial games.

Tough Opposition in League One: Next year, we can expect some strong competition from both relegated Championship teams and ambitious sides already in League One. This increased competition will make it harder for us to achieve promotion.

Loss of Quality Players: With the departure of free agents at the end of the season, we will undoubtedly lose some quality players, further reducing our team's ability to perform at the required level.

Transfer Budget Constraints in League One: While there is no official salary cap in place, League One clubs generally operate on a tighter budget compared to those in the Championship or Premier League. This means that once our transfer ban is lifted, we may still face financial restrictions that limit our ability to sign top-quality players.

League One SCMP Rules: League One clubs are subject to the Salary Cost Management Protocol (SCMP), which limits the player wage expenditure to 60% of the club's relevant turnover. This restriction will further limit our ability to attract and sign quality players even after the transfer ban is lifted, potentially hindering our chances of promotion.

Transfer Rules Restrictions: Even when we reach our third season, we will still be limited by transfer rules that restrict our ability to bring in fresh talent. This could make it difficult for us to strengthen the squad as needed.

Uncertainty of New Ownership: The financial commitment of our new owner remains uncertain. It is hard to predict how much they will be willing to invest once we are allowed a transfer budget again. This could directly impact our capacity to sign key players and improve our squad.

Relying on Free Agents and Loan Players: Winning promotion from League One is a difficult task, and relying solely on free agents and loan players is not a sustainable or reliable strategy. Without the ability to make permanent signings, our chances of success are significantly reduced.

Though I understand this may not be the most uplifting message, I believe it is essential to be realistic about the challenges we face. As fans, we must continue to support our club and hope that, despite these obstacles, we can rally together and achieve success in the future.

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  • 1 month later...

53 of you are in the hat.

Wednesday 10th May, 7.30pm

End of season Zoom call, where I will make the draw live using a random number generator whilst screen sharing.

Drop me a PM on the Wednesday for the link for those that wish to watch and then have an end of season debrief over a beer or two.

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