Season 21 - 22 survival bid statistics

[Yani P]

Ok so I love a stat so thought it might be useful to start putting forward some stats based guesswork as to what real chance we might have of survival this season. We can then review it as the season progresses.

It might not be everyones cup of tea but I felt like I had to work on something as it has been a very sad couple of days and having listened to Morris this morning with his zero compassion for what he has created it just made me even sadder to be honest.

Caveats before I start (and I know they are big ones!) - 

• I am assuming that we retain Wayne, his team and the squad we currently have (this of course is complete guesswork until the Administration starts
• I am currently assuming a 16 point deduction scenario which is the one that seems reasonably solid so far (sadly I believe it cant get better than this, only potentially worse)

So today we are on 10 points, better than many expected (I read threads where people thought we would be bottom by the end of September and that was without a penalty). I see this as positive in so many ways, we are top half, we are playing well and the squad are up for the fight and are working their socks off for the Club and their manager.

I believe the old adage that when you start off in the relegation zone it sets the tone for the year. We certainly saw that last season. So yes we will be bottom once the deduction kicks in, but I would hope the mindset will be totally different . Last season we were relegation fight material for pretty much the entire season, that is difficult to shake off. This season we are not and the players know we are not so I envisage a far more positive reaction from us when the deduction hits and we are bottom.

The first graphic just shows the gameweek by gameweek position of each team - I have kept this and all other stats I have since 1968 lol..as you can see, Derby are reasonably consistent never top 6 never bottom 3. I have added our 20-21 season at the bottom for comparison. I do think this is a useful indicator although its early days still.

The next table shows our points totals for every season since our return from the Premier League. We average just over 65 points per season obviously there are some highs and lows in there. If we hit our average before the deduction, we should be safe (51 points net).

The next table shows the minimum points needed to stay up and the highest points that still got you relegated. We were pretty lucky last year with 44 as the average has been just shy of 48 (again since we were relegated). 54 points has been relegated once (very unlucky) but if we did hit our average (net 51) we would only have been relegated in 2 seasons since our return to the Championship and in one of those seasons another team on 51 stayed up on goal difference so potentially only once would we have missed out.

Looking at this season we are currently 12th but its all about points and most importantly the performance of our rivals as we need three teams to be below us obviously. We are currently just 3 points ahead of the relegation zone (in effect net -13). All 3 of last seasons promoted teams are below us but there are teams down there that you might expect to climb out (Forest and Swansea as examples). Compare this to last season, we were already bottom 3 – interestingly as a gauge 12th place was on 10 points the same as this season.

Just to give us all a bit of hope I want to fast forward to the table after 15 games last season. For whatever reason they haven’t put Sheff Weds 6 points deduction in with these week-by-week tables but even with that we were rock bottom on 8 points! And we stayed up even with our abysmal back end of the season.

We have 10 points now, let’s see how we are tracking against our last season performance after 15 games.

 

I just really hope that we are at least given a chance to fight this season – that’s all we can ask for.

Edited October 26, 2021 by angieram

[jono]

12 minutes ago, Yani P said:

Ok so I love a stat so thought it might be useful to start putting forward some stats based guesswork as to what real chance we might have of survival this season. We can then review it as the season progresses.

It might not be everyones cup of tea but I felt like I had to work on something as it has been a very sad couple of days and having listened to Morris this morning with his zero compassion for what he has created it just made me even sadder to be honest.

Caveats before I start (and I know they are big ones!) - 

• I am assuming that we retain Wayne, his team and the squad we currently have (this of course is complete guesswork until the Administration starts
• I am currently assuming a 16 point deduction scenario which is the one that seems reasonably solid so far (sadly I believe it cant get better than this, only potentially worse)

So today we are on 10 points, better than many expected (I read threads where people thought we would be bottom by the end of September and that was without a penalty). I see this as positive in so many ways, we are top half, we are playing well and the squad are up for the fight and are working their socks off for the Club and their manager.

I believe the old adage that when you start off in the relegation zone it sets the tone for the year. We certainly saw that last season. So yes we will be bottom once the deduction kicks in, but I would hope the mindset will be totally different . Last season we were relegation fight material for pretty much the entire season, that is difficult to shake off. This season we are not and the players know we are not so I envisage a far more positive reaction from us when the deduction hits and we are bottom.

The first graphic just shows the gameweek by gameweek position of each team - I have kept this and all other stats I have since 1968 lol..as you can see, Derby are reasonably consistent never top 6 never bottom 3. I have added our 20-21 season at the bottom for comparison. I do think this is a useful indicator although its early days still.

The next table shows our points totals for every season since our return from the Premier League. We average just over 65 points per season obviously there are some highs and lows in there. If we hit our average before the deduction, we should be safe (51 points net).

The next table shows the minimum points needed to stay up and the highest points that still got you relegated. We were pretty lucky last year with 44 as the average has been just shy of 48 (again since we were relegated). 54 points has been relegated once (very unlucky) but if we did hit our average (net 51) we would only have been relegated in 2 seasons since our return to the Championship and in one of those seasons another team on 51 stayed up on goal difference so potentially only once would we have missed out.

Looking at this season we are currently 12th but its all about points and most importantly the performance of our rivals as we need three teams to be below us obviously. We are currently just 3 points ahead of the relegation zone (in effect net -13). All 3 of last seasons promoted teams are below us but there are teams down there that you might expect to climb out (Forest and Swansea as examples). Compare this to last season, we were already bottom 3 – interestingly as a gauge 12th place was on 10 points the same as this season.

Just to give us all a bit of hope I want to fast forward to the table after 15 games last season. For whatever reason they haven’t put Sheff Weds 6 points deduction in with these week-by-week tables but even with that we were rock bottom on 8 points! And we stayed up even with our abysmal back end of the season.

We have 10 points now, let’s see how we are tracking against our last season performance after 15 games.

 

I just really hope that we are at least given a chance to fight this season – that’s all we can ask for.

As they said in Jaws …. I think you need a bigger Anorak 

Great job though ??

[Ramley Apple]

More like "Gloria Estefan - The EFL is Gonna Get You"

[Yani P]

We need about 1.41 points a game to get to 65 - we are currently at 1.25 so that tracks to something like 7.5 points off target. Obviously limited data yet as only 8 games in.

[Yani P]

Pulled together a very basic tracker to see where we are against a projected end of season target points score (currently 67 points based on a points deduction of 16). I stated earlier that we needed 65 but it is actually 67 based on the 16 points deduction to hit 51 points that should be safe. I was mixing this up with our average points since relegation which is just over 65.

I have tried to go worse case with our points target, as you can see above 43 and 44 points have been enough a few times - 44 would drop our target by another 7 points.

Biggest caveat here is we have only played 8 games - a decent return in our next 10 games would make this look way way better.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Yani P

[RoyMac5]

Who's selling 'Operation Gloria: Derby will survive' teeshirts then? ?

[Ellafella]

19 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Who's selling 'Operation Gloria: Derby will survive' teeshirts then? ?

You’ve got that job @RoyMac5

[alexxxxx]

As much as I like the optimism, the small squad will come back to bite. And the efl will never allow us to not be relegated. Cue new charges come Feb if it looks like there's any chance of us staying up.

[66DegreesNorth]

...my head hurts !

[TheresOnlyWanChope]

I just want the club to survive and still be playing football, not even worried about this season. Can’t see anything but relegation as the points deductions may be a lot more than 12. The worrying thing is the debt 

[Yani P]

I'm banking on us surviving so thought nothing wrong with also dreaming of a miracle league survival..but if we go down I'm sure it will be with spirit and pride..

[Yani P]

Just another stat that gives us a glimmer..

we have been in the championship for 13 seasons before this one and 8 times we have finished more than 12 points ahead of the relegation places

only once have we failed to be at least 12 points clear in the past 8 seasons (obviously that was last season)

we have finished more than 21 points clear of the relegation places 6 times in those 13 seasons and 16 or more clear 8 times

 

Yeah I know we have a threadbare squad and potential fire sales etc. etc. but im looking at the potential that we dont get as many as 21 deducted and we get taken over pretty swiftly so this squad and management team stays together..history timeguys....history time..

 

 

 

[Yani P]

Im still currently tracking this with the same assumptions:

• Deduction is 12 points 
• We need 63 (net 51) to stay up

Still early days with the projection as with only 10 games it can fluctuate a great deal with a couple of wins or defeats but its promising to me that we are tracking to hit 60 points (net 48) already. 48 would keep us up more often than not and I firmly believe once we get more games played we will track higher than that - we just need an even break and decent referees (if they exist).

[Yani P]

Also interested to track against last season - just because that is our most recent flirt with relegation that we have had.

44 points is an OK baseline as it would be enough to keep you up 8 times in the 13 seasons that we have been back in the Championship.

 

So last season we only had 6 points after 10 games, indeed we only had 8 points after 15 games !! So even after our deduction we are only 5 points worse off. The point i'm trying to make is we survived even after an 8 points from first 15 start (and indeed only 7 points from our last 15 games!!). If the table pans out anywhere close to the way it did last season then we have a lot of room for improvement on last season.

As a league table gauge - alter 10 games last season the 4th bottom team had 8 points - identical to this season.

[Yani P]

Updated After Week 14 Matches

Updated the stats tracker - starting to get some more solid data now we are 14 games in, ive got us a projected total of 56 (Net 44) after 14 games played. That would give us a 54% chance of survival based on every season since we were last relegated.

Im tracking us against last season for the stat of tracking the 4th bottom team (as thats where we need to get to as a minimum). Last season was our closest to relegation in a good while so makes sense to use that as our season baseline for this year. Its no point us tracking at net 44 if the 4th bottom starts tracking way above last season (funnily enough that was 44 points as well). Good news is the 14 game tracker currently sits as a positive one in our favour so as long as that stays at or near zero or positive we are well on track even with all these draws.

[Yani P]

Another key thing to keep an eye on are our fixtures between now and the start of January - we are all hoping that with all the positive vibes and interest we will be nearing a takeover in January - or at least in a position where we will not be looking to sell any of our players in a fire sale.

So how many games do we need to get out of the way before January. Well, im counting the January 1st game as I doubt anything will change by then so its a mighty 12 games still to go!! All we can hope is that we dont get any major injuries and the squad keeps the passion going with the fans right behind them but you can see what a tall order we have in front of us. 5 home games and 7 away plus we play the top 3 who are allowed to play on a different playing field to our level one (at least 2 of those are at home).

October
Blackburn (H)

November
Barnsley (A)
Millwall (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Fulham (A)
QPR (H)

December
Bristol C (A)
Blackpool (H)
Cardiff (A)
WBA (H)
Stoke (A)

January 1st
Reading (A)

[Rampage]

38 minutes ago, Yani P said:

Another key thing to keep an eye on are our fixtures between now and the start of January - we are all hoping that with all the positive vibes and interest we will be nearing a takeover in January - or at least in a position where we will not be looking to sell any of our players in a fire sale.

So how many games do we need to get out of the way before January. Well, im counting the January 1st game as I doubt anything will change by then so its a mighty 12 games still to go!! All we can hope is that we dont get any major injuries and the squad keeps the passion going with the fans right behind them but you can see what a tall order we have in front of us. 5 home games and 7 away plus we play the top 3 who are allowed to play on a different playing field to our level one (at least 2 of those are at home).

October
Blackburn (H)

November
Barnsley (A)
Millwall (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Fulham (A)
QPR (H)

December
Bristol C (A)
Blackpool (H)
Cardiff (A)
WBA (H)
Stoke (A)

January 1st
Reading (A)

Jani you are the man.

[Ellafella]

Good work @Yani P. It would be useful if you could label your tables a bit more to help us to interpret them a little more easily. The key table is the one which shows the required average points per game (APPG) to hit "safety" - what we can see is that "required" APPG is rising with each passing game; it gives us a "numerical" understanding of what we intuitively know ie that we need to start winning games. We could construct a chart with a "ceiling" on which would show the point at which we are unlikely (based on our last few seasons) to meet the required APPG; but maybe that would be too depressing!

I like to keep my eye on ben Mayhew's excellent Experimental 3-6-1 website. Although his visualizations are mostly descriptive (rather than predictive) his scatter plots are interesting because:

1. They enable comparisons between teams that are not necessarily just a reflection of the league table. They do this by "drilling down" to show attacking and defensive "norms" ie how each team play "on average" defensively and offensively. As games aggregate, the notion is that teams's "normative" performances are established; ie extraneous "noise" produced by form, poor refereeing decisions, sheer luck and other extraneous factors are reduced. 

2. They tend to describe and confirm (rather than point to the future) how teams are doing and therefore where teams need to improve. 

3. The other downside though is that Ben's stuff tends to be a few weeks behind...he's a very busy chap so I'm not being critical. The latest scatterplots are only inclusive of games up to 3rd Oct, so the folowing ones excluded our games at Preston, home to Luton, Away at Coventry and of course yesterday's home V BRFC. 

4. Nevertheless, they're worth a look:

 

Figure 1 shows defensive effectiveness: Shots faced per match (X axis) compared with shots faced per goal conceded (Y-axis). The vertical and horizontal line intersection is "average" for the Championship which effectively creates "quadrants" which Ben labels according to the relative ratios of shots faced per match : shots faced per goal conceded. What we can see is that Derby are a total outlier - We are "competent but busy". On average we face the second highest number of shots on average (almost 15) (Only Rreading face more on average) but actually it takes an average of 20 shots by the opposition to score a goal against us. In one sense this is very good - we are probably blocking lots of shots rather than anything else; but in another sense, it's worrying. Teams are getting lots of opportunity to shoot - we are not defensively tight because we are denying them shots. So the question becomes...can we sustain that? Given that we've conceded 2 at home versus Luton and 2 V BRFC, it may be that we are already showing  some "regression to the average" which may mean our period of extreme frugality may be over. Let's face it, BRFC could've/should've been 4-0 at HT yesterday!

If that's the case, it's worrying because, as we know, we are paper thin up front, and Figure 2 illustrates just how much: We are in the "ineffectual" quadrant, alongside Barnsley - our next opponent. We need 15 shots for every goal scored - just like Barnsley; and we only create an average of 9.7 shots per game. If we look at other teams we are playing soon - Millwall, Fulham and QPR, they are all "above average" Championship shooters. Bournemouth are below average in terms of number of shots; but I suspect their chances though fewer relatively may be more convertible ie better quality. Perhaps, the return of CKR may make us more effective in front of goal - he's hit the post twice in the last 2 games and blazed over at the death when he got through yesterday but Ben Mayhew's scatters tell us what we intuitively know - Wayne has to find a way of making us score more, and we have to get back to keeping clean sheets, before that "mini-trend" of conceding 2 at home becomes the norm. 

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2021 by Ellafella

[plymouthram]

On 21/09/2021 at 19:49, 66DegreesNorth said:

...my head hurts !

Stop heading the ball then

 

[Yani P]

Best time for a slash on 61-75 minutes...