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How many more points required?


Taribo
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If we get a points deduction of -12 then we'll have to try and find 59 points. A feat that this squad and manager simply aren't going to be capable of unless something drastically changes. I'm not even optimistic we'd survive a -6 point deduction at this point. But, as I said in a previous post I think the likelihood of us going down is probably 50/50 as it is anyway. The lack of squad depth enforced via the embargo meant it was essential we got off to a good start, get points on the board and then as we falter as the grind begins it'll be a softer landing. But we haven't done that really and have only managed 1 win from 7 games and 4 of them have been against teams in the bottom 6. 

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2 hours ago, Mountain Ram said:

Good thing you didn’t attach a year to that!

I have zero faith the accounts / embargo / takeover will be sorted by next January to enable us to push on again…sad state of affairs to feel like that when it’s still months away, but there’s not much, based on previous record, to inspire confidence… 

beliek back playing the aswell

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3 hours ago, Taribo said:

Average number of points to be crowned champions: 94 points

Average number of points to reach play-offs: 74 points

Average number of points to avoid relegation: 47 points

At our current rate of 7 points from 7 games we're on course to finish on 46 (excluding any points deductions), just another 38 nil-nils and a sneaky 1-0 somewhere and we'll be fine. 

 

We’ve given forest their only point. And Peterborough 75% of theirs. We’d need fewer points to survive if we did better against the stragglers rather than the leaders 

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17 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

We’ve given forest their only point. And Peterborough 75% of theirs. We’d need fewer points to survive if we did better against the stragglers rather than the leaders 

It's an interesting one isn't it - we've only got one point from the two sides in the bottom 2 yet we're unbeaten against 2 sides in the Top 4 - the trade is would you have taken a win against Forest for example and defeats against Huddersfield and West Brom?

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Don’t think we can pay too much attention as to who is top and who is bottom at the moment. Still don’t think Forest will necessarily be down there. Peterborough I think will so that feels a missed opportunity, however I also think Hull will be down there so that was a good win. We’ll know more in the next 6 games but considering the injuries on top of a small squad I don’t think we can complain.

Next two games will be difficult ( forget Sheffield’s start they have a good squad) , but Reading (H) Swansea (H) Preston (A) Luton (H) Cov (A) we need to be targeting 8 or 9 points from those games really. They are all games where we can play some good football and win if we are more clinical. It’s around October where I would expect a new style of play to bed in and players become more used to each other which should hopefully lead to better decision making in the final third.

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I look at that for every 6 games we ideally need minimum 7 points. That would give us another 42 points on top of what we have now with 3 additional games to pick up a few more.

So 7 points from : Stoke (H), Sheff U (A), Reading (H), Swansea (H), Preston (A) & Luton (H)

From that batch of 6 with 4 home games we need to be aiming for 9pts+

If we go into the next international break with 13+ points from 11 games I will be happy

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1 hour ago, Tyler Durden said:

It's an interesting one isn't it - we've only got one point from the two sides in the bottom 2 yet we're unbeaten against 2 sides in the Top 4 - the trade is would you have taken a win against Forest for example and defeats against Huddersfield and West Brom?

Yes

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1 hour ago, Tyler Durden said:

It's an interesting one isn't it - we've only got one point from the two sides in the bottom 2 yet we're unbeaten against 2 sides in the Top 4 - the trade is would you have taken a win against Forest for example and defeats against Huddersfield and West Brom?

To be honest I think it's a little early to read too much into relative position of opposition faced as the league is still settling and we've only got a very small sample to draw any conclusions from. Also I do kind of think that the quality at this level is relatively flat; you can take points of most teams and if you aren't careful you can get beat by a fair few as well, so because of that there tends to be a reasonable amount of variance in results.

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60 points needed but that requires  a goal scorer or serious improvement from midfield in terms of goals 

the one bonus this season is that I think there are about 16 teams who are equally poor with little money to spend so they will all be taking points of each other probably - is that good or bad ? - so long as we collect points it’s ok 

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9 hours ago, Leeds Ram said:

If we get a points deduction of -12 then we'll have to try and find 59 points. A feat that this squad and manager simply aren't going to be capable of unless something drastically changes. I'm not even optimistic we'd survive a -6 point deduction at this point. But, as I said in a previous post I think the likelihood of us going down is probably 50/50 as it is anyway. The lack of squad depth enforced via the embargo meant it was essential we got off to a good start, get points on the board and then as we falter as the grind begins it'll be a softer landing. But we haven't done that really and have only managed 1 win from 7 games and 4 of them have been against teams in the bottom 6. 

Yes, survival this season does seem unlikely.  For reasons discussed on various posts, the EFL seem determined for DCFC to be on the receiving end of the most severe punishment - relegation. The combination of a lengthy restriction on transfer activity, followed by a timely points deduction is designed to pretty much guarantee that the drop is inevitable. 

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6 hours ago, Sparkle said:

 

60 points needed but that requires  a goal scorer or serious improvement from midfield in terms of goals 

 

It just needs Bird, Watson, Morrison (or even Fozzie) to thread nice balls through to the likes of Baldock, Joz, Lawrence, Sibley, Ebosele for us to score. The guys up front have little chance to score if their supply line is Roos, or Shinnie and Knight 

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The 12 point deduction puts Mel in an awkward position.

It almost guarantees relegation.

If relegated he will probably only get a max of 20 million for Derby and probably 10 million.

If I were Mel I would appeal the 12 point decision, recall we are still under scrutiny on the potential non payment of salaries.

If the non payment of salaries occurs its a further 3 points for each occurrence, so relegation.

I also believe that the efl are totally crazy to give 12 points if that's related to the amortisation as derbys auditor said that procedure was not illegal so how is 12 points justified.

Originally we were found to not be in the wrong.

If I were Mel I see no reason not to appeal the 12 points

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17 hours ago, Leeds Ram said:

.......and have only managed 1 win from 7 games and 4 of them have been against teams in the bottom 6. 

I keep seeing this comment of 4 in bottom 6, I'm sure when I look at the table 4 of the 7 teams are in the top half.....

You can't use a reference for us after 7 games without using the same reference for the teams we've played!

WBA, Brum, Boro and Huddersfield are all top half after 7 games.

The only real blip IMO is the Peterborough game, which the vast majority believe we should have won or at least a draw, Forest was a local Derby so any results are likely and we beat Hull.

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John Percy says it will be 12pts, that seems overly harsh.

I think that's guaranteed relegation, Derby should probably go to the appeal, what have they go to lose.

If its 12 points I wouldn't bother playing the rest of the season, what are you proofing by clinging to draws with the team Derby has and not getting enough wins together to prevent the relegation.

Even if the transfer embargo were to be lifted, would Mel spend millions in January rebuilding the team to give a fighting chance of not being relegated.

All of this over a non illegal accounting procedure which Derbys auditors signed off on and which companies house accepted.

233108976_Screenshot_20210916-085728_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7edb0d7807e2002f96802b70a705dc02.jpg

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45 minutes ago, Oldben said:

John Percy says it will be 12pts, that seems overly harsh.

I think that's guaranteed relegation, Derby should probably go to the appeal, what have they go to lose.

If its 12 points I wouldn't bother playing the rest of the season, what are you proofing by clinging to draws with the team Derby has and not getting enough wins together to prevent the relegation.

Even if the transfer embargo were to be lifted, would Mel spend millions in January rebuilding the team to give a fighting chance of not being relegated.

All of this over a non illegal accounting procedure which Derbys auditors signed off on and which companies house accepted.

233108976_Screenshot_20210916-085728_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7edb0d7807e2002f96802b70a705dc02.jpg

That sounds much more likely - lots of headbutting being attempted by the EFL with nothing to really back them up. Just they don't like the way we do things! 

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Am I missing something here? If we'd really broken the rules and fallen foul of FFP, then surely it's an automatic points deduction. If that's the case then yes we deserve to be punished.

But if not, then why should we accept a big points penalty? It seems to me like we have an accounting policy they don't like, but they said it was fine years ago and have changed their mind.

Not saying the club are completely innocent, because we're not, but have we actually broken any rules? Have we gone over the limit? 

I say we keep fighting, 9 points or more and we've had it.

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14 minutes ago, Rammy03 said:

Am I missing something here? If we'd really broken the rules and fallen foul of FFP, then surely it's an automatic points deduction. If that's the case then yes we deserve to be punished.

But if not, then why should we accept a big points penalty? It seems to me like we have an accounting policy they don't like, but they said it was fine years ago and have changed their mind.

Not saying the club are completely innocent, because we're not, but have we actually broken any rules? Have we gone over the limit? 

I say we keep fighting, 9 points or more and we've had it.

I think it's something along the lines of with the change to ammortisation we would have perhaps gone over a few years ago but the EFL signed off on at the time and so the club were acting under the impression they were ok. If the club thought they were going to fall foul of it at the time they would have time and options to react to it and bring us back in line. Perhaps mixed in with the club proposing a different ammortisation policy than the one we've used previously and the EFL insisting on straight line.

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