Relegation?

[Ken Tram]

23 hours ago, Leeds Ram said:

I don't believe the cause was completely down to fans not being in the ground and you're simply misdiagnosing the cause of the poor home form. A big point drop from one season to the other doesn't necessarily mean it's because there were no fans in the ground, teams suffer big drops in form from season to season when fans are still very much present after-all. There appears to be mixed results in research on this topic but a very big study as cited here does undermine your claim.   https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/31/football-teams-retain-home-advantage-no-crowd-study This is another study that highlights the opposite just to give the opposite opinion. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2020.593499/full 

I haven't done the research on championship home form to note how other teams did in comparison to a pre covid times. If you wanted to be more accurate you should highlight post/pre covid home form in the 19/20 season too rather than mixing in the numbers potentially giving a distorted picture. But even if the drop in home form is represented  to a degree because of the loss of crowds (and you happen to be correct) then the same logic applies for other teams too which would explain the away form staying somewhat the same. 

If you think that having crowds back in will suddenly propel this team to midtable from relegation fodder that's your view but I think it's unrealistic to think such a thing. Crowds do likely have some impact especially in the giving of cards to the opposition but I don't think they determine results to the extent you're suggesting. 

You may be right, but it sounds to me more of an emotional argument rather than one based upon evidence. (Although see the last paragraph!)

Statistics show the impact of home support. And Derby tend to have one of the largest (although that does not mean the most effective).

On top of that, we do seem to have a reputation of one of the best away supporters too.

(There is an element of us singing when we're winning ... which means that the additional support in itself cannot propel us up from relegation fodder - but Derby's support should almost certainly give an additional boost to an improving team.)

Edited July 8, 2021 by Ken Tram

[Ken Tram]

23 hours ago, Rample said:

Without major changes (takeover and squad revamp) I think we look doomed, points penalty or not.

We've decreased in strength and quality and we were pretty crap before.

Currently at 1 win in 14, and that record isn't going away, for every game it continues next season it will stay around our necks. Even if we have a purple patch we would always be wary of slipping back into those habits.

If Bielik and Lawrence stay fit, if Knight returns to form, if someone like Sibley or Stretton really steps up, if we land Wilson/Mount level loanees, then maybe we can make a bit more of a fist of things, but are any of those realistic?

I must admit that a run of 14 games is a reasonable duration, but I think too many people read too much into it, when they use it to project what will happen next season.

We could have said that before the Euros, England had had zero appearances as finalists in 54 years, and so we definitely won't reach the final.

If a roulette wheel has landed on red 14 times in a row, we cannot say that it will continue to land on red. 

If someone told you ... out of the next 14 games, you only need a few points (5 from 42?) ... I think many trends can falter.

I think the most amazing statistic is that the team went from zero to only needing 5 points in 14 games, it whatever it was.

But, there's no statistical basis for selecting that particular period.

The key issue is whether or not the new team can succeed. And, I liked the post about a couple of surpassing loans and a surprise from the academy.

But, it is the new team (players and coaches) that are the issue, but the last 14 games of last season.

(I'm now going to pile up the sandbags.)

[Ken Tram]

22 hours ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

For those they think we are doomed, how bad is people’s view of how bad we could be.

As bad as SW, Rovrum, Wycombe last year? All 3 of them came quite close to survival as we know.

Defence was not too bad last year with main criticism weakness in the air from corners. Experienced aged bodies more likely to help with that than up-coming potential. Should be “easy” to stay as bad as last year with recruitment and could be better.

Scoring goals we were utter ? last year. Quite hard to get worse? But could be very difficult to get better as good enough players (att mids and forwards costly).

So in summary I think we are probably likely to be equally as poor as the bottom 4/5 of last year (and hence be scrapping in it at last days) or a little bit better with some average recruitment (not stellar) and luck with injuries.

If we are bottom 5 form, then we won't survive a points deduction. ?

[Ken Tram]

19 hours ago, jono said:

Remember also that we don’t know the state of other clubs.

Good point. 

[Ken Tram]

2 hours ago, 24Charlie said:

Rooney will be sacked way before things get critical if our form follows on from last season. 
He has no credit in the bank and has to improve almost immediately otherwise he’ll be gone. 
If we get relegated it won’t be down to  Rooney because he won’t have been manager for a large portion of the season.

It’s the takeover, the embargo and the resubmission of accounts that will have far more of a bearing of where we end up rather than anything Wayne Rooney does.

I think you're right. I probably allow by heart to rule my head in terms of Rooney. I don't expect thin to be a top league manager ... but I do need him to improve.

If he improves, then I still think that he had the potential to be a to manager.

I think that he has high footballing intelligence. And if he improves this year, and even if he is still not the best, I will continue to stick with him. But only while he continues to improve.

And I don't think the "last 14 games" is a valid way of judging improvement for a first-time manager starting mid-season.

[Ken Tram]

I wonder ... if we start the season in relegation form, do you think that we would be less likely to get a points deduction?!

[BathRam72]

6 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I wonder ... if we start the season in relegation form, do you think that we would be less likely to get a points deduction?!

Interesting thought. Let's lose the first 4 games and see ?

[Tamworthram]

4 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I wonder ... if we start the season in relegation form, do you think that we would be less likely to get a points deduction?!

No. I think it will irrelevant (provided any penalty is applied early enough). Even the EFL wouldn’t be stupid enough to take such a stance. Imagine the (rightful) outcry if they decided not to deduct points because of our relegation form and then our form improved.

[Bwash_Ram]

Mid table obscurity

[Jimbo Ram]

59 minutes ago, Ken Tram said:

I think you're right. I probably allow by heart to rule my head in terms of Rooney. I don't expect thin to be a top league manager ... but I do need him to improve.

If he improves, then I still think that he had the potential to be a to manager.

I think that he has high footballing intelligence. And if he improves this year, and even if he is still not the best, I will continue to stick with him. But only while he continues to improve.

And I don't think the "last 14 games" is a valid way of judging improvement for a first-time manager starting mid-season.

Continues to improve suggests he has improved…which unfortunately he hasn’t ☹️

[Spanish]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

I wonder ... if we start the season in relegation form, do you think that we would be less likely to get a points deduction?!

Isn’t there prescribed penalties for P& S breaches or am I making it up?  There is certainly more precedent I guesss

[Leeds Ram]

1 hour ago, Ken Tram said:

You may be right, but it sounds to me more of an emotional argument rather than one based upon evidence. (Although see the last paragraph!)

Statistics show the impact of home support. And Derby tend to have one of the largest (although that does not mean the most effective).

On top of that, we do seem to have a reputation of one of the best away supporters too.

(There is an element of us singing when we're winning ... which means that the additional support in itself cannot propel us up from relegation fodder - but Derby's support should almost certainly give an additional boost to an improving team.)

I'm a bit confused by the 'emotional' claim, surely it's more true of the opposite view? we want to believe that fans make a significant impact on results and that willing our team onto winning is enough to tip the balance in our favour. The evidence appears to be mixed in that respect covid has been an interesting experiment into the value of supporters. It also logically would work both ways if there is an effect (I've not bothered to compile home form in the championship though for pre covid vs during covid.) which might explain our dip in home form but away form remaining similar i.e., we're still a poorer side but the away form stayed relatively consistent due to others home form dropping off. 

I don't think getting 20,000 fans in the ground again is going to almost double our home points tally from last season.  It ignores the significant flaws in squad and management that exist and need to rectify. If big loud and positive support was a key to success Sheffield wednesday and sunderland wouldn't be in the third tier of english football. 

[Brammie Steve]

Are we significantly better than either Sunderland or Sheffield Wednesday.

Both are 'big' clubs with a strong and loyal fanbase...... like us!

Both are in League one.

Threat of relegation is hanging over us like the sword of Damocles.

We can't count on a swift return to the Champship if the sword falls!

Can we scrape enough points together?

Until recently I would have sneered at the very possibility of relegation to League One or beyond!

Only my rose tinted specs keep me optimistic now!

[Leeds Ram]

2 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

You may be right, but it sounds to me more of an emotional argument rather than one based upon evidence. (Although see the last paragraph!)

Statistics show the impact of home support. And Derby tend to have one of the largest (although that does not mean the most effective).

On top of that, we do seem to have a reputation of one of the best away supporters too.

(There is an element of us singing when we're winning ... which means that the additional support in itself cannot propel us up from relegation fodder - but Derby's support should almost certainly give an additional boost to an improving team.)

Apologies if i misunderstood your reply btw ? got my hangover reading brain on atm 

[Gone]

1 hour ago, Bwash_Ram said:

Mid table obscurity

We can only dream ?

[Jimbo Ram]

2 hours ago, Ken Tram said:

I must admit that a run of 14 games is a reasonable duration, but I think too many people read too much into it, when they use it to project what will happen next season.

We could have said that before the Euros, England had had zero appearances as finalists in 54 years, and so we definitely won't reach the final.

If a roulette wheel has landed on red 14 times in a row, we cannot say that it will continue to land on red. 

If someone told you ... out of the next 14 games, you only need a few points (5 from 42?) ... I think many trends can falter.

I think the most amazing statistic is that the team went from zero to only needing 5 points in 14 games, it whatever it was.

But, there's no statistical basis for selecting that particular period.

The key issue is whether or not the new team can succeed. And, I liked the post about a couple of surpassing loans and a surprise from the academy.

But, it is the new team (players and coaches) that are the issue, but the last 14 games of last season.

(I'm now going to pile up the sandbags.)

1 win in 16 ?

[Jimbo Ram]

30 minutes ago, Brammie Steve said:

Are we significantly better than either Sunderland or Sheffield Wednesday.

Both are 'big' clubs with a strong and loyal fanbase...... like us!

Both are in League one.

Threat of relegation is hanging over us like the sword of Damocles.

We can't count on a swift return to the Champship if the sword falls!

Can we scrape enough points together?

Until recently I would have sneered at the very possibility of relegation to League One or beyond!

Only my rose tinted specs keep me optimistic now!

We can’t have a weaker squad this coming season than the one that finished so dismally last season. That will end in relegation. Some how Wazza has got to work his magic and bring in 4 or 5 better players than what we have…and start managing the team better….then who knows….

[Ken Tram]

10 hours ago, Leeds Ram said:

I'm a bit confused by the 'emotional' claim, surely it's more true of the opposite view? we want to believe that fans make a significant impact on results and that willing our team onto winning is enough to tip the balance in our favour. The evidence appears to be mixed in that respect covid has been an interesting experiment into the value of supporters. It also logically would work both ways if there is an effect (I've not bothered to compile home form in the championship though for pre covid vs during covid.) which might explain our dip in home form but away form remaining similar i.e., we're still a poorer side but the away form stayed relatively consistent due to others home form dropping off. 

I don't think getting 20,000 fans in the ground again is going to almost double our home points tally from last season.  It ignores the significant flaws in squad and management that exist and need to rectify. If big loud and positive support was a key to success Sheffield wednesday and sunderland wouldn't be in the third tier of english football. 

I do agree! Fans cannot do much for a team in relegation form. But I think that they make a difference for teams doing better than that.

[Dean (hick) Saunders]

I guess we will soon find out as we will probably have similar quality team AND fans in the stadium.

Can Someone can statto it and report back to the collective please.

[Oldben]

On 08/07/2021 at 13:00, Ken Tram said:

I think you're right. I probably allow by heart to rule my head in terms of Rooney. I don't expect thin to be a top league manager ... but I do need him to improve.

If he improves, then I still think that he had the potential to be a to manager.

I think that he has high footballing intelligence. And if he improves this year, and even if he is still not the best, I will continue to stick with him. But only while he continues to improve.

And I don't think the "last 14 games" is a valid way of judging improvement for a first-time manager starting mid-season.

In my opinion Rooney was taken on as manager as an opportunity to encourage potential buyers.

If that's back fired, then that's not on Rooney as he's not a tried and tested manager, not that helps the club.

I dont think Mel will sack Rooney, thats an extra cost to Mel.

 I'm guessing, Mel's only goal at present is to sell the club.

I'm not sure why the club sale is taking so long, surely the way forward is bringing in a football club sales specialist firm get them to find a buyer.

Don't know how long Mel would want to keep funding the players wages, assuming he stops doing so the efl have made it clear the club have a 3 point deduction for every month the wages are not paid.

That would relegate the club, assuming say you had two months when the wages were not paid.

Just because Rooney is a former England player and has a lot of football knowledge, doesn't mean he will ever be a great manager.

Not that it would happen, but I really wish lampard was the manager again.