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Relegation?


IslandExile

Relegation?  

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5 minutes ago, jono said:

What’s going to happen is that the up and comings will get their mojo back. There will be some surprises from the academy. Bielik will come back. We’ll get a couple of loans that seem terrible but against all odds work out well. There will be a points deduction. The central committee decided that ages ago but we will triumph and put two fingers up to our detractors. ?

They may take away our lives but they'll never take our freedom! 

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21 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

19/20 Away = 23 points
20/21 Away = 19 points

19/20 Home = 41 points
20/21 Home = 25 points

Now tell me having 20k+ fans supporting the players won't have an impact

I don't believe the cause was completely down to fans not being in the ground and you're simply misdiagnosing the cause of the poor home form. A big point drop from one season to the other doesn't necessarily mean it's because there were no fans in the ground, teams suffer big drops in form from season to season when fans are still very much present after-all. There appears to be mixed results in research on this topic but a very big study as cited here does undermine your claim.   https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/31/football-teams-retain-home-advantage-no-crowd-study This is another study that highlights the opposite just to give the opposite opinion. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2020.593499/full 

I haven't done the research on championship home form to note how other teams did in comparison to a pre covid times. If you wanted to be more accurate you should highlight post/pre covid home form in the 19/20 season too rather than mixing in the numbers potentially giving a distorted picture. But even if the drop in home form is represented  to a degree because of the loss of crowds (and you happen to be correct) then the same logic applies for other teams too which would explain the away form staying somewhat the same. 

If you think that having crowds back in will suddenly propel this team to midtable from relegation fodder that's your view but I think it's unrealistic to think such a thing. Crowds do likely have some impact especially in the giving of cards to the opposition but I don't think they determine results to the extent you're suggesting. 

Edited by Leeds Ram
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Without major changes (takeover and squad revamp) I think we look doomed, points penalty or not.

We've decreased in strength and quality and we were pretty crap before.

Currently at 1 win in 14, and that record isn't going away, for every game it continues next season it will stay around our necks. Even if we have a purple patch we would always be wary of slipping back into those habits.

If Bielik and Lawrence stay fit, if Knight returns to form, if someone like Sibley or Stretton really steps up, if we land Wilson/Mount level loanees, then maybe we can make a bit more of a fist of things, but are any of those realistic?

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52 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

19/20 Away = 23 points
20/21 Away = 19 points

19/20 Home = 41 points
20/21 Home = 25 points

Now tell me having 20k+ fans supporting the players won't have an impact

I don't think it is as simple as that. If fans had have been there throughout last season I agree that we'd have almost certainly got more points but I think you have to consider the circumstances within which fans are returning. Namely we are coming off the back of a ropey season with a manager that appears to have a significant amount of detractors, attitudes towards the squad and the club in general feel like the most negative they've been in well over a decade and fans are coming in off the back an extremely stressful time for all. The elements are all there for the atmosphere at the ground to become extremely toxic and hostile if we don't start the season well we could end up in a bit of a death spiral.

With that said, a good start and a couple spirited wins could act as a galvanizing effect amongst the crowd that goes on to really help fuel good home form. It's honestly hard to say which way the dice will fall on this, my suspicion is it depends on how well we start but I wouldn't feel confident banking on the crowd returning being an overall positive influence as things stand.

Personally I think next season will see us flirting with relegation primarily because I have little faith in the current managerial setup and see little reason why that the start of next season won't essentially be a continuation of last season. Do we go down ? Hard to say. I'd guess not mostly down to that I'm still of the belief that we have a core of very talented young players that if we find a way to build around them, compliment them with a couple sensible additions and coach the best out of them then we will be more than clear. 

 

 

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For those they think we are doomed, how bad is people’s view of how bad we could be.

As bad as SW, Rovrum, Wycombe last year? All 3 of them came quite close to survival as we know.

Defence was not too bad last year with main criticism weakness in the air from corners. Experienced aged bodies more likely to help with that than up-coming potential. Should be “easy” to stay as bad as last year with recruitment and could be better.

Scoring goals we were utter ? last year. Quite hard to get worse? But could be very difficult to get better as good enough players (att mids and forwards costly).

So in summary I think we are probably likely to be equally as poor as the bottom 4/5 of last year (and hence be scrapping in it at last days) or a little bit better with some average recruitment (not stellar) and luck with injuries.

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I think the problems are (at least) twofold. Last year we just didn't score enough goals, not even close. The knock-on effect of that is that it meant that every game was a massive pressure on the defence to keep things tight. Short purple patch aside, if we conceded we were as often as not stuffed and even if we took the lead we could never put a game to bed bar one freak game away at Birmingham and that was with a lot of help from the opposition.

Our central defence is weaker/ non-existent and we have one aging striker (plus some completely unproven youngsters..) who for all his work-rate has a rather underwhelming scoring record throughout his career. If the rest of the attack-minded outfield players don't score anything more than the odd token goal again then we will be in a deeper hole in terms of scoring and the pressure on a defence (particularly the centre) will be colossal.

Without meaningful reinforcement I just can't see how we can expect anything more than relegation zone with this squad and a couple of old journeymen is not going to transform this. The response to the alarming slide last year was pretty much non-existent. If we start badly I can see us folding and just going through the motions again.

I want to be positive, I genuinely do but I just can't think of any obvious examples of teams who will have a weaker squad than us. We need some bodies through the door just to give us enough playing resource to get through the season but we badly need some quality too.

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1 hour ago, Alty_Ram said:

I think the problems are (at least) twofold. Last year we just didn't score enough goals, not even close. The knock-on effect of that is that it meant that every game was a massive pressure on the defence to keep things tight. Short purple patch aside, if we conceded we were as often as not stuffed and even if we took the lead we could never put a game to bed bar one freak game away at Birmingham and that was with a lot of help from the opposition.

Our central defence is weaker/ non-existent and we have one aging striker (plus some completely unproven youngsters..) who for all his work-rate has a rather underwhelming scoring record throughout his career. If the rest of the attack-minded outfield players don't score anything more than the odd token goal again then we will be in a deeper hole in terms of scoring and the pressure on a defence (particularly the centre) will be colossal.

Without meaningful reinforcement I just can't see how we can expect anything more than relegation zone with this squad and a couple of old journeymen is not going to transform this. The response to the alarming slide last year was pretty much non-existent. If we start badly I can see us folding and just going through the motions again.

I want to be positive, I genuinely do but I just can't think of any obvious examples of teams who will have a weaker squad than us. We need some bodies through the door just to give us enough playing resource to get through the season but we badly need some quality too.

I tend to agree. And yours is a solid honest round up ??
 

Defence worries me without Matt Clarke’s composure but Byrne is still effing good at stopping crosses and Fozzy can play there adequately. There will be new faces in defence, we can’t know for sure how they will shape up. In midfield I think we are looking reasonable. I see them improving primarily on the basis that they started young and are gaining power, strength and experience. Attack though ? You’re right, the ball isn’t going in the back of the net. Colin is a great disrupter, maker of space but he needs some speed, cut, thrust and clinical assassins around him .. some of this could come from the middle but he needs a foil badly ! 
 

If we avoid a deduction ( unlikely for political reasons) I think we will find something, especially if we get a good start. If the dice go against us, loans don’t fit, Bielik remains on the sidelines, then we will have a fight on our hands … but if Joz starts to score a few, Bielik storms back and the young one sand loaners work well, then it’s a different outcome.

Remember also that we don’t know the state of other clubs.I am willing to bet that a lit of credit card bills have been hidden under the carpets of many clubs during the pandemic and if all the artifice is stripped away Derby will seem a lot more financially stable than many of our rivals. 

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5 hours ago, Rample said:

Without major changes (takeover and squad revamp) I think we look doomed, points penalty or not.

We've decreased in strength and quality and we were pretty crap before.

Currently at 1 win in 14, and that record isn't going away, for every game it continues next season it will stay around our necks. Even if we have a purple patch we would always be wary of slipping back into those habits.

If Bielik and Lawrence stay fit, if Knight returns to form, if someone like Sibley or Stretton really steps up, if we land Wilson/Mount level loanees, then maybe we can make a bit more of a fist of things, but are any of those realistic?

1 win in 16 ?

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4 hours ago, Patrick Rams said:

Remember Barnsley last season..just like us only escaped relegation due to another clubs points deduction...yet managed to incredibly reach the play offs.That could be us! Nothing surprises me in football.

Two big differences: 1) they brought in a new manager, 2) they weren't constrained by any transfer embargo.

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1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

Two big differences: 1) they brought in a new manager, 2) they weren't constrained by any transfer embargo.

We are Staying up I say we staying up I say we are staying up I Say we are staying up

Things can only and will get better, keep the faith the takeover is coming. 

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7 hours ago, Derby blood said:

We are Staying up I say we staying up I say we are staying up I Say we are staying up

Things can only and will get better, keep the faith the takeover is coming. 

I hope you’re right and I’m not yet in the doom and gloom camp. I’m just pointing out our position isn’t a mirror image of Barnsley’s (unless we change managers very early doors of course ?).

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18 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

19/20 Away = 23 points
20/21 Away = 19 points

19/20 Home = 41 points
20/21 Home = 25 points

Now tell me having 20k+ fans supporting the players won't have an impact

No I just don't get this. Are you saying not having fans at games only impacted Derby? Because Norwich did pretty well along with others.

Bad form purely down to a lack of talent, all the goings on at the club, inexperienced management. etc

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1 hour ago, Dean (hick) Saunders said:

Quite a lot of games we lost points in were marginal. Having home fans could have made difference of a few points.

(Assuming the fans did not just boo continuously)

Wasn’t it the same for every club or is it we have a fearsome partisan home crowd?

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2 hours ago, BathRam72 said:

No I just don't get this. Are you saying not having fans at games only impacted Derby? Because Norwich did pretty well along with others.

Bad form purely down to a lack of talent, all the goings on at the club, inexperienced management. etc

I'm firmly of the belief that our young inexperienced squad was impacted by it much more than older more experienced squads.

Time and time again the players have all stated how much they feed off the energy in the crowd.

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Rooney will be sacked way before things get critical if our form follows on from last season. 
He has no credit in the bank and has to improve almost immediately otherwise he’ll be gone. 
If we get relegated it won’t be down to  Rooney because he won’t have been manager for a large portion of the season.

It’s the takeover, the embargo and the resubmission of accounts that will have far more of a bearing of where we end up rather than anything Wayne Rooney does.

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