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Relegation?


Relegation?  

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3 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

We need centre backs who know what they are doing as well as centre forwards who score goals in the championship 

Jagielka knows what he's doing; the issue is whether he's still physically capable of doing it.

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Just now, IslandExile said:

Jagielka knows what he's doing; the issue is whether he's still physically capable of doing it.

He was at a premiership club last season!

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1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

nothing more I want to be than positive, but you just have to look at the facts in front of us and be realistic I’m afraid.

New owner, new management team 5/6 quality new players and we’re on the up. Stay as we are, I’ll be looking forward to following the Rams on a league one tour in 22/23 

That is a depressing thought but with all the rumour, panic and discussion about administration and financial woes (eg after a certain ex Forest players deleted tweet) if that happens as long as we are gradually getting the off pitch stuff sorted so that we can be stable as a club and we can still support in lower divisions, I would take that

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1 minute ago, CBRammette said:

That is a depressing thought but with all the rumour, panic and discussion about administration and financial woes (eg after a certain ex Forest players deleted tweet) if that happens as long as we are gradually getting the off pitch stuff sorted so that we can be stable as a club and we can still support in lower divisions, I would take that

Would it have been easier to have rebuilt in League One this season rather than struggling in the Championship and ending up there next year?

This way, ironically, it could further delay our assault on a Champions League place.

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9 minutes ago, Sparkle said:

He was at a premiership club last season!

He didn't do much but sit on the bench last season, and much of the time he didn't even do that

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17 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

Would it have been easier to have rebuilt in League One this season rather than struggling in the Championship and ending up there next year?

This way, ironically, it could further delay our assault on a Champions League place.

Yes probably but if there is a points deduction due to revised accounts would rather it sent us from Ch to league 1 than 1 to 2. Although EFL will probably delay so that is the case anyway!!!

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27 minutes ago, CBRammette said:

That is a depressing thought but with all the rumour, panic and discussion about administration and financial woes (eg after a certain ex Forest players deleted tweet) if that happens as long as we are gradually getting the off pitch stuff sorted so that we can be stable as a club and we can still support in lower divisions, I would take that

Me too, I know what I wrote was depressing but it’s the state we are in on the pitch at present. However it doesn’t matter how poo we are and what division we are in, they will always get my support so need them to survive as an entity, and as you say that looks more positive at present. 

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22 minutes ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

With fans in the ground, we won’t be getting relegated. 

Can work both ways...we get a poor start, Wazza has a record of 1 win in 22 say (no wins in our first 6 games), some fans might start getting on his back...and the team.....

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1 hour ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Can work both ways...we get a poor start, Wazza has a record of 1 win in 22 say (no wins in our first 6 games), some fans might start getting on his back...and the team.....

I think most fans know the situation and who needs positive support 

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Posted (edited)

Even with a 12-point deduction, finishing 16th, 12th, 18th & 17th would have avoided relegation in the past four years. So, a points deduction in itself does not make relegation inevitable.

Finishing in the top half should mean survival.

With the team as we have it, what is needed to make a top-half finish likely?

(As opposed to what changes would be needed to have a league-winning team!)

Edited by Ken Tram
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If the embargo will prevent us making the changes we need to for a top-half finish to be likely ...

... then it could be better to publish the accounts immediately, even if it means a points deduction ...

... compared with delaying, getting a points deduction anyway, and also being less likely to finish the league in the top half (before the points deduction).

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On the fans in the ground, I think I remember seeing a stat on MOTD that showed home win percentage had taken a bit of a nose dive. Yes, we'll have a bit more of a home advantage but so will other teams and I'd guess it would somewhat even out over the course of time. If people are thinking 'the fans are back' and suddenly we'll pick up a lot more points I think that's fundamentally mistaken and misdiagnoses how bad the rot is at the club. The passion of fans doesn't bear a direct relation to points on the board- if it had done Leeds, Newcastle, Sunderland, Sheffield wednesday etc. wouldn't have been in the doldrums for years on end. 

Are we doomed? No, not yet we're not. There is still a month until a ball is kicked and we have the January window after that to beef the squad up and the loan market if we need to use it. Is the situation extremely concerning? Yes, we picked up less than a point per game last season and endured some of the worst football produced by the club this century. If that form is replicated this season we can pack our bags for league 1 at christmas time tbh. 

The squad needs significant additions in strength and depth  not trimming around the edges with a few additions. The big issue is we have little to no money and with the soft embargo little ability to bring in good quality players. Even in areas where we do have numbers (such as cm) I'd still suggest additions just based on how ineffective they were last season. An overreliance on academy players (not to do this to death) is repeating the same error made last season- throwing too many in too quickly leads to them all drowning. 

But there are a lot of free agents around and the finances of football due to the pandemic will be suppressing wages at this level a little. That does mean if we're smart we can likely go bargain shopping and pick up good senior pros who will fit the style of play we want to adopt (whatever that may be).  That gives me hope and we can't condemn the team before a ball has been kicked. If nothing really changes and we just make a couple of additions my gut feeling is that we'll have a long hard season and this will likely be the season we fall through the trap door. The combination of an inexperienced manager and a large intake of youth players seems to me like an obvious recipe for disaster. 

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1 minute ago, Ken Tram said:

If the embargo will prevent us making the changes we need to for a top-half finish to be likely ...

... then it could be better to publish the accounts immediately, even if it means a points deduction ...

... compared with delaying, getting a points deduction anyway, and also being less likely to finish the league in the top half (before the points deduction).

It might be that doing what's required to discharge the embargo (and possibly incurring a points penalty) is not, on its own, sufficient to bring in the quality needed to achieve a top-half position this season. I can't see Mel wanting to make a substantial investment in the playing side - we need the takeover to go ahead and the sooner the better, for all concerned.

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2 hours ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Can work both ways...we get a poor start, Wazza has a record of 1 win in 22 say (no wins in our first 6 games), some fans might start getting on his back...and the team.....

Don’t know, just think Derby finished lower last season than if the team had had fans in. 
Derby won’t be relegated.... as long as we have some kind of squad.  Need a few players. 

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9 minutes ago, Leeds Ram said:

On the fans in the ground, I think I remember seeing a stat on MOTD that showed home win percentage had taken a bit of a nose dive. Yes, we'll have a bit more of a home advantage but so will other teams and I'd guess it would somewhat even out over the course of time. If people are thinking 'the fans are back' and suddenly we'll pick up a lot more points I think that's fundamentally mistaken and misdiagnoses how bad the rot is at the club. The passion of fans doesn't bear a direct relation to points on the board- if it had done Leeds, Newcastle, Sunderland, Sheffield wednesday etc. wouldn't have been in the doldrums for years on end. 

Are we doomed? No, not yet we're not. There is still a month until a ball is kicked and we have the January window after that to beef the squad up and the loan market if we need to use it. Is the situation extremely concerning? Yes, we picked up less than a point per game last season and endured some of the worst football produced by the club this century. If that form is replicated this season we can pack our bags for league 1 at christmas time tbh. 

The squad needs significant additions in strength and depth  not trimming around the edges with a few additions. The big issue is we have little to no money and with the soft embargo little ability to bring in good quality players. Even in areas where we do have numbers (such as cm) I'd still suggest additions just based on how ineffective they were last season. An overreliance on academy players (not to do this to death) is repeating the same error made last season- throwing too many in too quickly leads to them all drowning. 

But there are a lot of free agents around and the finances of football due to the pandemic will be suppressing wages at this level a little. That does mean if we're smart we can likely go bargain shopping and pick up good senior pros who will fit the style of play we want to adopt (whatever that may be).  That gives me hope and we can't condemn the team before a ball has been kicked. If nothing really changes and we just make a couple of additions my gut feeling is that we'll have a long hard season and this will likely be the season we fall through the trap door. The combination of an inexperienced manager and a large intake of youth players seems to me like an obvious recipe for disaster. 

19/20 Away = 23 points
20/21 Away = 19 points

19/20 Home = 41 points
20/21 Home = 25 points

Now tell me having 20k+ fans supporting the players won't have an impact

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6 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

It might be that doing what's required to discharge the embargo (and possibly incurring a points penalty) is not, on its own, sufficient to bring in the quality needed to achieve a top-half position this season. I can't see Mel wanting to make a substantial investment in the playing side - we need the takeover to go ahead and the sooner the better, for all concerned.

But ... if Mel doesn't act to enable a top-half finish ... presumably following a plan of relegation and rebuilding from League 1 ... wouldn't that make a takeover less likely?

I would be more interested in buying a club likely to stay in the Championship despite the uncertainty of a points deduction.

But, I fear that Mel might see it as throwing even more good money after bad!

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What’s going to happen is that the up and comings will get their mojo back. There will be some surprises from the academy. Bielik will come back. We’ll get a couple of loans that seem terrible but against all odds work out well. There will be a points deduction. The central committee decided that ages ago but we will triumph and put two fingers up to our detractors. 🐏

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