The academy model

[Ghost of Clough]

2 minutes ago, Spanish said:

so you don't rate his work?  Ramblur is of course not the same guy

For most clubs he's quite good and the exemptions he estimates won't be too far off. However, for us, the actual figures for seasons up to 18/19 are out in the public domain which shows just how far off he is. He also uses club accounts rather than group accounts.

On 10/05/2021 at 15:52, Carnero said:

Swiss Ramble estimated that we were £34m within the P&S loss limit for the 3 years to 2017/18. If we take that as being correct and then include an additional £30m amortisation charge as per the Daily Fail reporting (and Kieran Maguire), we are STILL within the loss limit and therefore compliant.

15/16: -£15.3m (actual) vs -£20m (SR)
16/17: -£13.4m (actual) vs -£3m (SR)
17/18: £7.2m (actual) vs £18m (SR)

[TheAllestreeRam]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Man United (class of 98) and Barcelona (Guardiola) are the two most notable examples in 'recent' times.

Man Utd appear to be going for at least 50% - Rashford, McTominay, Pogba, Greenwood and Henderson will all be expecting to be starters. 4 of those were in their most used 11 from last season (Henderson missing out). Then they have a massive list of fringe players hoping to get minutes such as Tuanzebe and Williams

It'll be interesting to see which direction Chelsea go in next season, with Mount, James, Christensen, Hudson-Odoi, Abraham and Gilmour in their squad.

Bilbao have around 70% players from their academy at all times due to their commitment to only play basque players. 

Chelsea and united are capatalising on those players being good enough, it isnt their club model to have half their team made up of academy players, just good fortune, look at their teams of 5 years ago, and united bought back pogba after he was deemed good enough. Barcelona have had to invest heavily in players due to the failure of La Masia to produce first team quality players in the last 5 years (although a few decent prospects coming through now). None of these clubs have sustained high proportions of academy players over the long term. 

[Sparkle]

Knight, Sibley, Bird,Buchanan are a great bunch of now experienced young players which many other clubs would like to get hold of.

hopefully and we have seen other youngsters pushing through ( out of need) - on the pitch our future could be very exciting if they progress together but what we don’t have is any promising centre half’s who need to be good enough for the championship so we need to sign some of them and quickly whilst also addressing our lack of goals and I do hope Stretton can progress but he won’t be ready to do that on a full time basis. We actually need someone like Marriott to turn up with a full bill of health with the right attitude and to do it on the pitch but that seems unlikely based on recent times so let’s hope shall we.

[Ghost of Clough]

2 minutes ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

Bilbao have around 70% players from their academy at all times due to their commitment to only play basque players. 

Good on them

2 minutes ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

Chelsea and united are capatalising on those players being good enough, it isnt their club model to have half their team made up of academy players, just good fortune,

Their model won't be to "have half their team made up of academy players", but I'm absolutely certain it'll be to get as many in the first team as possible. The secondary function is to generate as much money as possible via loans or transfers. You don't think they invest as much as they do to get players into their first team?

2 minutes ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

look at their teams of 5 years ago,

Yeah, they say investment in the academy takes 10 years to come into full fruition. I'm guessing they weren't at that point 5 years ago. The youth structure in England only went under a massive revamp a few years ago, with the rewards from that now showing - Arsenal are another who have introduced a lot of youth players to their team recently.

2 minutes ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

and united bought back pogba after he was deemed good enough.

Still an academy graduate though. And he didn't leave because he wasn't good enough, it was because he wasn't getting the first team football he wanted. The same applied to Pique at the time.

2 minutes ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

Barcelona have had to invest heavily in players due to the failure of La Masia to produce first team quality players in the last 5 years (although a few decent prospects coming through now). None of these clubs have sustained high proportions of academy players over the long term. 

Hence me referring to the Guardiola years, not the present moment in time - Valdes, Pique, Puyol, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta and Messi were the spine of that team, with Bojan, Pedro and Thiago squad players

[48 hours]

Found this on twitter (prospect watch) which kinda shows where we are at ...

Total minutes given to players aged 23 and younger in the championship last season.

1st Barnsley 25,367

6th Brentford 18,024

7th Norwich 17,847

10th Derby 15,309

20th Forest 8,357

24th Millwall 3,163

End of term report - improving, could do better (?)

 

[Spanish]

23 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

For most clubs he's quite good and the exemptions he estimates won't be too far off. However, for us, the actual figures for seasons up to 18/19 are out in the public domain which shows just how far off he is. He also uses club accounts rather than group accounts.

15/16: -£15.3m (actual) vs -£20m (SR)
16/17: -£13.4m (actual) vs -£3m (SR)
17/18: £7.2m (actual) vs £18m (SR)

I suppose much depends on which co's the EFL include in the group calculation as SR says

A review of #DCFC finances is complicated by the structure, where a holding company, Sevco 5112 Ltd, owns The Derby County Football Club Ltd plus 3 other companies: Club DCFC Ltd (catering & hospitality), Stadia DCFC Ltd (commercial & sponsorship) and Derby County FC Academy Ltd. Furthermore, Sevco 5112 Ltd has been owned by another holding company, Gellaw NewCo 203 Ltd, since 28 June 2018. The arrangement brings to mind Winston Churchill’s famous quote, “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”, but to be clear there’s nothing untoward here.

Do you know which co owns the ground now? 

 

[Jubbs]

46 minutes ago, AutoWindscreens said:

Brentford model is now cast in serious doubt by Brexit and the need for work permits.

They are smart enough to recruit in accordance with the rules. They scout from the Eredivisie for example, fine. Brentford's model will be fine.

[TheAllestreeRam]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Their model won't be to "have half their team made up of academy players", but I'm absolutely certain it'll be to get as many in the first team as possible. The secondary function is to generate as much money as possible via loans or transfers. You don't think they invest as much as they do to get players into their first team?

I agree with you that they want to get players in the first team, but if the players arent good enough, then they buy in players. At the moment there are players that are good enough, but that might not be the case in the future and they wont be relying of the academy to constantly be producing players of that quality. 

13 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Still an academy graduate though. And he didn't leave because he wasn't good enough, it was because he wasn't getting the first team football he wanted. The same applied to Pique at the time.

Exactly. A lack of first team opportunities for an academy player? Their model cant have been matching ours then? 

14 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Hence me referring to the Guardiola years, not the present moment in time - Valdes, Pique, Puyol, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta and Messi were the spine of that team, with Bojan, Pedro and Thiago squad players

And this is my point, with the model as it is, we would need to be producing players of this quality year after year after year while remaining competitive, something which not even Barca have managed. I am looking long term here beyond the current set of Bird, sibley and Co. can we really produce that quality consistently when no other academy have done it (bar Bilbao)? 

 

[MackworthRamIsGod]

1 hour ago, Jram said:

The thing is though, promoting the academy lads is the only option we’ve got and I think people are saying “imagine how horrific it would be if we didn’t even have the academy”... I completely agree it isnt ideal to promote 4 or 5 at the same time (although I do think they will become really good players soon) but we’d be completely done if we didn’t have that option (if we’re not already completely done)

Totally agree with that, it is a necessity. I suppose it's a case of how do we measure success? I'm going off the past few seasons before this where we were either challenging for or competing in the playoffs.

I suppose that is the wrong way of looking at it now, as we are in such a mess the academy is doing the only thing it can do, which IS to plug all the gaps.

So, not a failing of the academy, but a failing of the club itself, or those allegedly running the club.

[Ghost of Clough]

19 minutes ago, 48 hours said:

Found this on twitter (prospect watch) which kinda shows where we are at ...

Total minutes given to players aged 23 and younger in the championship last season.

1st Barnsley 25,367

6th Brentford 18,024

7th Norwich 17,847

10th Derby 15,309

20th Forest 8,357

24th Millwall 3,163

End of term report - improving, could do better (?)

 

That's U23 players, not academy though.

After 41 games, percentage of minutes to U21s:
1. Blackburn - 24.22
2. Derby - 24.06
3. Norwich - 20.61
4. Stoke - 19.42
5. Watford - 18.25

Others you listed: Barnsley (8th), Brentford (11th), Forest (14th), Millwall (21st)
 

Percentage of minutes to academy graduates:
1. Reading - 31.95
2. Derby 22.55
3. Blackburn - 20.51
4. Boro - 18.59
5. Norwich - 17.14

Others you listed: Barnsley (14th), Brentford (=21), Forest (10th), Millwall (17th)

 

Probably puts a completely different spin on the academy than that Twitter post you found.

[Ghost of Clough]

23 minutes ago, Spanish said:

I suppose much depends on which co's the EFL include in the group calculation as SR says

A review of #DCFC finances is complicated by the structure, where a holding company, Sevco 5112 Ltd, owns The Derby County Football Club Ltd plus 3 other companies: Club DCFC Ltd (catering & hospitality), Stadia DCFC Ltd (commercial & sponsorship) and Derby County FC Academy Ltd. Furthermore, Sevco 5112 Ltd has been owned by another holding company, Gellaw NewCo 203 Ltd, since 28 June 2018. The arrangement brings to mind Winston Churchill’s famous quote, “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”, but to be clear there’s nothing untoward here.

Do you know which co owns the ground now? 

 

The EFL decision document reveals the numbers and it's definitely Sevco 5112 which he should have been using - couldn't use GN203 as they haven't released any accounts.

I recall Gellaw NewCo 202 being the current owners of the ground.

[Spanish]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

The EFL decision document reveals the numbers and it's definitely Sevco 5112 which he should have been using - couldn't use GN203 as they haven't released any accounts.

I recall Gellaw NewCo 202 being the current owners of the ground.

Even more confusing.  If the academy costs are contained within the SPV how can they affect DCFCL?  You would have to presume that S5112 is a holding co that merely shows the capital investment in the subs.  There must be unpublished consol accounts which makes all this quite impossible 

[Ghost of Clough]

1 hour ago, TheAllestreeRam said:

I agree with you that they want to get players in the first team, but if the players arent good enough, then they buy in players. At the moment there are players that are good enough, but that might not be the case in the future and they wont be relying of the academy to constantly be producing players of that quality. 

And we can do that, hence Bielik for £8m, Jozwiak for £4m, etc...

Quote

Exactly. A lack of first team opportunities for an academy player? Their model cant have been matching ours then? 

FFS! That was 10 years ago. Completely different landscape in English football at the moment. They were the best side in the country and challenging for the Champions League. That's a different level to a Championship club.

Let me remind you our U23s finished above MUFC's this season, the league above since 2018, and above them in 17/18. Yet they'll still go into next season with 5 academy graduates as regular starters in a side pushing for the PL title.

Quote

And this is my point, with the model as it is, we would need to be producing players of this quality year after year after year while remaining competitive, something which not even Barca have managed. I am looking long term here beyond the current set of Bird, sibley and Co. can we really produce that quality consistently when no other academy have done it (bar Bilbao)? 

We're a Championship club with one of the best academies in the country - if we can't produce a steady stream of Championship quality players then we may as well give up ASAP.

In other threads I've repeatedly shown how the consistency in quality has improved over time. Here's the list of academy players, grouped by year they were first year scholars.

2011: Etheridge, AWassall, Lelan, Sharpe, Berry, Dales, Hayes, Wixted, Dawkins
2012: Rawson, Hanson, KThomas, Spiriak, Nash, Revan, Carrigy, Johnson, Capitani, MBennett
2013: Behrens, Tuite, Lowe, Rigby, Moulton, Dryden, Adams, TBennett, Clennett, Guy, Vernam, Zanzala
2014: Barnes, EWassall, Cover, Stabana, MacDonald, Babos, JBird, Carvell, Gordon, Mellors
2015: Yates, Goode, Bateman, Magno, Davidson-Miller, Edwards
2016: Fryatt, Carter-Thompson, CThomas, Mbuti, Rashid, Mills, Bogle, Thorne, Haywood, Hitchman, Wise, Jibodu, JML, Cresswell, Davie
2017: French, JBrown, Minkley, Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Dixon, Whittaker
2018: Foster, Halwax, Cashin, Ebosele, McDonald, Archie, Charles, Sibley, LThompson, Wilson, Stretton
2019: Solomon, Jinkinson, Bardell, Grewal-Pollard, Matthews, Rogers, Aghatise, Perez de Gracia, SThompson, Nto, Cybulski
2020: Roberts, Randle, Brailsford, Rutt, Christie, Ibrahim, Bokovic, Williams, Kelly
2021: Evans, Maloney, Sebagabo, Moore, Fapetu, Robinson, Aideyan, Amaefule, Nicholas-Davies, Dixon, Brown

2011 to 2016 on the whole was dross. So, we can go back to pre-Mel spending and maybe get 1 player a year of any value if we're lucky. Other than those listed, I only recall Hendrick and Hughes, Bennett and Lowe making a meaningful impact on the team, with O'Brien, and Ball having a few run outs. Not exactly worthwhile spending just £2m...?

Back to what we have now... If you actually watched the U18s and U23s you may actually realise the quality we have coming through. It seems clear to me that you may have never watched a single game.
7 U16s were used throughout the U18 season, and we even had U15s playing towards the end. One of them got an assist and assisted the assister for 3 others vs Leeds. This was a season where we finished midtable so clearly held their own against older players.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Ghost of Clough

[Spanish]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

For most clubs he's quite good and the exemptions he estimates won't be too far off. However, for us, the actual figures for seasons up to 18/19 are out in the public domain which shows just how far off he is. He also uses club accounts rather than group accounts.

15/16: -£15.3m (actual) vs -£20m (SR)
16/17: -£13.4m (actual) vs -£3m (SR)
17/18: £7.2m (actual) vs £18m (SR)

Yep the figures came from the P&S return not from the accounts.

69) On 12 April 2018 the EFL wrote to the Club raising various queries about the Club’s P&S Information. The Club responded on 25 April 2018, enclosing a revised P&S Appendix 1 Form That revised P&S Appendix 1 Form recorded 15 The Club’s Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 30 June 2016 had been signed on 29 November 2016. That loss was thus an ‘actual’ loss by the time of the Club’s P&S submission in spring 2018 16 The Club’s Annual Report and Financial Statements for the year ended 30 June 2017 had been signed on 28 February 2018. That loss was thus an ‘actual’ loss by the time of the Club’s P&S submission in spring 2018 34 a) A loss before tax for T-2 (year to 30 June 2016) of £14,725,000 with Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of (-£15,271,000)17 b) A loss before tax for T-1 (year to 30 June 2017) of £7,873,000 with Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of (-£4,686,000) c) A forecast loss before tax for T (year to 30 June 2018) of £27,445,000 with Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of (-£23,970,000)

[BBG83]

The academy isn't worth what it costs to run. Its produced very little in terms of returns on the pitch or at the bank.

Should at the very least be changed to U15s upwards but I'd scrap it altogether and use the money to scout lower league players.

Plus we got Cocu in to develop the whole Derby way and then just as it looked like he'd start making money off youth players he left.

Edited June 9, 2021 by BBG83

[angieram]

4 minutes ago, BBG83 said:

The academy isn't worth what it costs to run. Its produced very little in terms of returns on the pitch or at the bank.

Should at the very least be changed to U15s upwards but I'd scrap it altogether and use the money to scout lower league players.

Plus we got Cocu in to develop the whole Derby way and then just as it looked like he'd start making money off youth players he left.

I disagree.

Also, what are you going to buy those lower league players with? You can't use the money you would have spent on the academy as it would affect FFP. 

[BBG83]

6 minutes ago, angieram said:

I disagree.

Also, what are you going to buy those lower league players with? You can't use the money you would have spent on the academy as it would affect FFP. 

Good point. I will refer back to U15s upwards then.

I see little point in having U10s-U14s teams. So much changes between the age of 9 and 15. I think you've every chance of picking better developed players off the park when they're physically developed.

That's how it used to be.

[Angry Ram]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

£6m to run the academy each year if the academy accounts are to be believed (16/17 and 17/18). It was about £2m when he took over, so the total over the 7 years will be roughly £34m
Ignoring nominal fees such as Hanson, we've sold Hendrick, Hughes, Bogle, Lowe, Whittaker, Delap, Gordon, ManUtd3 for an estimated £31m. Luke Thomas may have counted as an academy signing which adds another £1.2m to the total.

I have no reason to challenge your numbers, so as you say.. Break even, I still struggle to see the point. It could be argued that these are golden years for the academy but as we have seen with Southampton, that is difficult to maintain.

 

3 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Both. Saved the club when needed (Bogle, Lowe, Whittaker, Gordon, MU3). But, also building for the future (Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Sibley, Ebosele, Stretton, etc...)

Bit of double accounting there.. If we take Bogle, Lowe etal, You have just used them to cover academy costs. They can't save the world at the same time bar an offset I am guessing. Will be interesting to see how long we keep the other mentioned and also what their market worth is.

[TheAllestreeRam]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

And we can do that, hence Bielik for £8m, Jozwiak for £4m, etc...

FFS! That was 10 years ago. Completely different landscape in English football at the moment. They were the best side in the country and challenging for the Champions League. That's a different level to a Championship club.

Let me remind you our U23s finished above MUFC's this season, the league above since 2018, and above them in 17/18. Yet they'll still go into next season with 5 academy graduates as regular starters in a side pushing for the PL title.

We're a Championship club with one of the best academies in the country - if we can't produce a steady stream of Championship quality players then we may as well give up ASAP.

In other threads I've repeatedly shown how the consistency in quality has improved over time. Here's the list of academy players, grouped by year they were first year scholars.

2011: Etheridge, AWassall, Lelan, Sharpe, Berry, Dales, Hayes, Wixted, Dawkins
2012: Rawson, Hanson, KThomas, Spiriak, Nash, Revan, Carrigy, Johnson, Capitani, MBennett
2013: Behrens, Tuite, Lowe, Rigby, Moulton, Dryden, Adams, TBennett, Clennett, Guy, Vernam, Zanzala
2014: Barnes, EWassall, Cover, Stabana, MacDonald, Babos, JBird, Carvell, Gordon, Mellors
2015: Yates, Goode, Bateman, Magno, Davidson-Miller, Edwards
2016: Fryatt, Carter-Thompson, CThomas, Mbuti, Rashid, Mills, Bogle, Thorne, Haywood, Hitchman, Wise, Jibodu, JML, Cresswell, Davie
2017: French, JBrown, Minkley, Buchanan, Bird, Knight, Dixon, Whittaker
2018: Foster, Halwax, Cashin, Ebosele, McDonald, Archie, Charles, Sibley, LThompson, Wilson, Stretton
2019: Solomon, Jinkinson, Bardell, Grewal-Pollard, Matthews, Rogers, Aghatise, Perez de Gracia, SThompson, Nto, Cybulski
2020: Roberts, Randle, Brailsford, Rutt, Christie, Ibrahim, Bokovic, Williams, Kelly
2021: Evans, Maloney, Sebagabo, Moore, Fapetu, Robinson, Aideyan, Amaefule, Nicholas-Davies, Dixon, Brown

2011 to 2016 on the whole was dross. So, we can go back to pre-Mel spending and maybe get 1 player a year of any value if we're lucky. Other than those listed, I only recall Hendrick and Hughes, Bennett and Lowe making a meaningful impact on the team, with O'Brien, and Ball having a few run outs. Not exactly worthwhile spending just £2m...?

Back to what we have now... If you actually watched the U18s and U23s you may actually realise the quality we have coming through. It seems clear to me that you may have never watched a single game.
7 U16s were used throughout the U18 season, and we even had U15s playing towards the end. One of them got an assist and assisted the assister for 3 others vs Leeds. This was a season where we finished midtable so clearly held their own against older players.

I think we are talking about different things here. You seem to be arguing for the quality in the academy, which I dont dispute. 

I am talking purely about the business model. I am scepticle of the long term sustainability of relying on the academy for both first team players and player sales. Even the best academies only produce a very small handful of players that are good enough for first team level, most with about 1/2 at a time. Chelsea and united have a particularly good crop at the moment which has skewed things slightly with 3/4 players. It may well be the case that the U23 league improves the amount of players coming through that are first team quality, but the current crop arent yet good enough (as this season has shown) and we are gambling heavily on them improving very quickly to avoid relegation. And if this new crop do succeed, then we will need 5/6 ready to take their place and so on as some will surely be sold whether the club want to sell or not.

For the model to work, we would need nearly everyone on that list from each year to be first team quality or higher. We might just disagree on how likely this is and how sustainable it is as a business model, which is fine.

I have watched an awful lot of our u18 and u23's. 

Edited June 9, 2021 by TheAllestreeRam

[i-Ram]

Close it down - Moor Farm, the lot.

The players can train on Pride Park pitch - a few star jumps and the like - and then we can get some caravans in on to the training pitches. £1000 per week for a berth, and daily use of palatial gym and catering facilities. Mel Morris to paint kids faces, and Owen Bradley to organise evening entertainment (inc. Gibbo playing the mouth organ, and McClaren doing long monologues mostly about himself). Much more sustainable business at this time.