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What will our punishment be?


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14 hours ago, sage said:

It should just be a fine but politically they have to give us a points deduction.

Giving us a deduction for the 20/21 season and relegating us would set a dangerous precedent and we would drag them through the courts for months.

I see 3 or 4 points off next season.

Any deduction is dependant on the outcome of recalculating the amortisation in the accounts.

Any deduction would have to be in the 21/22 season.

Any deduction can be reduced due to mitigating factors.

Any deduction will not be increased due to extenuating circumstances.

 

My estimate suggests we don't fail P&S in 17/18.
KM's estimate of £30m amortisation vs £21m for mine, suggests failing P&S by about £7.2m.

Based on KM's figure (worst case), we would be due a 6 point deduction.
Given the precedent set in the SW case of halving the penalty, it becomes 3 points instead.
Given the EFL's incompetence, that's reduced to 2 points.
Given the accountants on the DC panel thought we were compliant, reduced further to 1 point
Given we did not deliberately exceed the limits, rather we did everything we could to stay within them, 0 points deducted

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2 hours ago, Curtains said:

I can’t quote but I’ve read it. 

This one?

"The Club believes that pursuing a case based on conflicting opinions about accounting policies which, even if the EFL succeeded, would have only led to the Club re-submitting its P&S calculations, is a further waste of the EFL’s resources and an unnecessary distraction to the Club."

https://www.dcfc.co.uk/news/2020/09/Derby-county-statement-on-efl-appeal

Kind of suggests we wouldn't be worried about the numbers

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52 minutes ago, Beetle said:

This is all very strange. If the accounts will comply with FFP in either ammortisation formats then this whole process has been a waste of everyones time and money. I must be missing something

The EFL needs a win! - currently every club has to pay their legal fees and ours which I believe sat around £50,000 per club after the first hearing

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12 minutes ago, Carnero said:

I guess the £22m impairment in 18/19 fits with your £21m adjustment too?

I didn't think about that to be honest. It does seem like a reasonable assumption.

FYI, I think* KM got his figures from total potential fee - essentially he's put Thorne down as £3.5m whereas I put him down as £2.4m. (£2.4m initial fee backed up by the decision documents if you read between the lines). His £20m would also include promotion bonuses.

 

* I haven't gone through the accounts with a fine-tooth comb to be certain that's what he's done, but it seems plausible.

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My suspicion is that the EFL believe we would fail which is why they are pursuing it so forcefully.

The club are quoted as saying they believe we won’t.

Could the stadium profit prove crucial? Does the fact that it also includes itself as a year in the new P&S rules due to the 4-year Covid rule situation where 2019/20 and 2020/21 are calculated as an average of the two also prove crucial? Where 2017/18 wouldn’t normally be included with 2020/21?

Interestingly, I think of the figures included in the original IDC the latest ones were March or April 2019(?) what we didn’t know by then was that we would end up in the playoffs and get the income associated with that. I assume we got the gate receipts as usual being the loser of the final? Nor did we know at that point that we would ‘sell’ Lampard and the coaching staff for apparently £4m.

Let’s see what happens.

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32 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

Any deduction is dependant on the outcome of recalculating the amortisation in the accounts.

Any deduction would have to be in the 21/22 season.

Any deduction can be reduced due to mitigating factors.

Any deduction will not be increased due to extenuating circumstances.

 

My estimate suggests we don't fail P&S in 17/18.
KM's estimate of £30m amortisation vs £21m for mine, suggests failing P&S by about £7.2m.

Based on KM's figure (worst case), we would be due a 6 point deduction.
Given the precedent set in the SW case of halving the penalty, it becomes 3 points instead.
Given the EFL's incompetence, that's reduced to 2 points.
Given the accountants on the DC panel thought we were compliant, reduced further to 1 point
Given we did not deliberately exceed the limits, rather we did everything we could to stay within them, 0 points deducted

I like it, keep going & we’ll be promoted before the season starts 

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2 minutes ago, RandomAccessMemory said:

My suspicion is that the EFL believe we would fail which is why they are pursuing it so forcefully.

The club are quoted as saying they believe we won’t.

Could the stadium profit prove crucial?

Undoubtedly. Even with the amortisation, we would have failed P&S without the stadium sale.

2 minutes ago, RandomAccessMemory said:

Does the fact that it also includes itself as a year in the new P&S rules due to the 4-year Covid rule situation where 2019/20 and 2020/21 are calculated as an average of the two also prove crucial? Where 2017/18 wouldn’t normally be included with 2020/21?

Absolutely

2 minutes ago, RandomAccessMemory said:

Interestingly, I think of the figures included in the original IDC the latest ones were March or April 2019(?) what we didn’t know by then was that we would end up in the playoffs and get the income associated with that. I assume we got the gate receipts as usual being the loser of the final? Nor did we know at that point that we would ‘sell’ Lampard and the coaching staff for apparently £4m.

Let’s see what happens.

 

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28 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

This one?

"The Club believes that pursuing a case based on conflicting opinions about accounting policies which, even if the EFL succeeded, would have only led to the Club re-submitting its P&S calculations, is a further waste of the EFL’s resources and an unnecessary distraction to the Club."

https://www.dcfc.co.uk/news/2020/09/Derby-county-statement-on-efl-appeal

Kind of suggests we wouldn't be worried about the numbers

Lets hope the panel allow us to to resubmit the P&S calculations and they are within the limits. Mr Morris can then hand the EFL its arse on a plate and we can all drink and be merry.

I keep getting flash backs of Forsyth knocking that ball down to Paterson. Hopefully those thoughts will be gone by the time this is all resolved...

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2 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

I'd love it (Keegan style?) if we were fined one pound in the style of Trading Places, as a way for the Disciplinary Committee to say up yours to the EFL.

 

I've not actually cottoned onto that, the club arent only being attacked by the EFL, the EFL are actually calling the independent commission into question, so they might want to prove their decision was right, rather than back the EFL up.

Let's just hope they hold firm rather than bow to pressure.

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bump

5 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

I've not actually cottoned onto that, the club arent only being attacked by the EFL, the EFL are actually calling the independent commission into question, so they might want to prove their decision was right, rather than back the EFL up.

Let's just hope they hold firm rather than bow to pressure.

 

4 hours ago, Spanish said:

in theory this could pit DC against EFL.  Not sure how I would feel if I was on the DC I think I may need to resign.  A different DC might be less aligned to our side of the argument

 

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